NFL free agency began on March 11
The NFL’s free agency signing period began on March 11 with the “legal tampering” portion of the offseason and many deals were expected to be signed right as the window opened. The first few hours of FA did not disappoint, as a lot of big names changed locations and that is just the beginning of what we’re going to see.
Several quarterback-needy teams are out there looking to fill a void at the most important position in all of sport. We’ll have a lot of player movement in advance of the 2024 NFL Draft over the last week of April and we’ll do our best to keep up with it here at VSiN.com and on our VSiN airwaves. Listen live or watch live for reaction on the latest news and enjoy this free week of being a VSiN Pro with unfiltered access to everything that we do.
Super Bowl LIX Odds Before Free Agency
Here’s what the Super Bowl LIX Odds looked like at DraftKings Sportsbook a little under an hour before free agency officially began.
As noteworthy deals roll in, we’ll be updating this post and also take stock of what the odds have done.
I’d also encourage you to check out Matt Brown’s recent story on the offseason moves of note that will shape the NFL Draft betting markets.
Happy free agent frenzy, everybody!
Multiple Players Sign Extensions
In the lead-up to free agency beginning, some players signed extensions.
The Bills re-signed Dion Dawkins to a three-year, $60.5M extension.
The Colts re-signed Michael Pittman to a three-year, $70M deal, with $46M guaranteed.
The Eagles re-signed Landon Dickerson to a four-year, $87M deal, with $50M guaranteed.
No immediate odds movement as a result, and none of these guys were really expected to hit the open market.
Bears Sign RB D’Andre Swift
The plans are in place to get ready for the new offense led by Caleb Williams and the first of the free agent dominoes fell with a three-year, $24M deal for Swift. He’s coming off of his first 1,000-yard rushing season with the Eagles last year and also had 39 catches for 214 yards. Non-quarterbacks totaled just 1,629 rushing yards for Chicago last season.
No immediate odds movement on this one, as the Bears are still 35/1.
Titans Sign RB Tony Pollard
It is no surprise that new Tennessee head coach Brian Callahan wanted a running back who could catch passes after years of being the OC in the Bengals with Joe Mixon. He found that player in Pollard, the former Cowboys RB with back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons and over 300 receiving yards each of the last three seasons.
Pollard had 55 catches on 67 targets, ranking eighth in catches among running backs.
The Titans are still an extreme long shot at 150/1.
Vikings Sign EDGE Jonathan Greenard
The Vikings ranked in the bottom half of the league with 43 sacks last season and 15th in Pressure% per Pro-Football-Reference. On the first day of free agency, with Kirk Cousins out there exploring the market, Minnesota focused on defense by picking up Greenard, formerly with the Texans.
Greenard had 14 sacks, but as NFL analyst @Clevta tweeted out, he padded his numbers a bit against bad QBs.
The Vikings are 60/1 and we’ll see what happens when they get the QB situation figured out.
Raiders add DT Christian Wilkins
The rebuild of the Raiders has begun, as they added some meat to the defensive line by signing the former Dolphins DT to a four-year, $110M deal with $84.75M guaranteed. The Raiders were in the middle of the pack against the run last season with 4.2 yards per carry, but one of 13 teams to allow over 2,000 rushing yards.
Wilkins also had nine sacks, so he’ll help the Raiders there as well. Las Vegas remains an extreme long shot at 100/1.
Rams Making Moves; Sign TE Colby Parkinson, OG Jonah Jackson
We haven’t seen any Super Bowl odds movement yet, as the Rams are still 35/1 in a very tough NFC West division, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see some interest in the near future. The Rams really bolstered the offensive line with the signing of Jackson, alongside the recently-extended Kevin Dotson.
They also picked up Parkinson, who is a big-bodied TE at 6-foot-7. He only had 50 catches over the last two seasons with Seattle, but he was sharing snaps with Noah Fant and locked in an offense that didn’t use the TE a whole lot. Matthew Stafford and the Rams will.
Two excellent signings here on the first day of NFL Free Agency.
Eagles Start to Fix Their Defense by Signing Bryce Huff
It’s hard to believe that the Eagles were 11-1 at one point this past season, but then everything fell apart. The defense was especially brutal down the stretch, but a new face may help. Huff had 10 sacks for the Jets and signed a three-year, $51.1M deal.
Remember that the Eagles had an NFL record 70 sacks in 2022 before Jonathan Gannon left to become the head coach of the Cardinals. The Eagles were 2th in sacks with 43 this past season.
They are 20/1 to win the Super Bowl and +850 to win the NFC.
Falcons Sign QB Kirk Cousins
The biggest and most anticipated move on the first day of free agency has taken place. The Falcons signed Cousins to a four-year deal. Read all about it right here.
They went from 35/1 to 28/1 to win the Super Bowl and are now the odds-on favorite at -110 to win the NFC South.
Eagles Sign RB Saquon Barkley
Barkley will stay in the NFC East, as he heads from the Giants to the Eagles. It is very surprising to see running backs getting contracts so quickly in free agency, as the value of that position has certainly declined, but the Eagles lost D’Andre Swift earlier in the day to the Bears and moved quickly to pick up Barkley.
The six-year vet will suit up in something other than Giants blue for the first time. He fell short of 1,000 yards and only played 14 games last season after finishing third in the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award voting in 2022 when he had 1,312 rushing yards and another 338 receiving.
With the Barkley signing and the Huff signing earlier, the Eagles moved from 20/1 to 18/1 in the Super Bowl LIX market.
Packers Sign RB Josh Jacobs
The Packers also picked up some running back help today, moving quickly to sign Jacobs around the time that contract talks fell through with Aaron Jones. Green Bay has liked the tandem approach for a while now with Jones and AJ Dillon, so we’ll see if the Packers put anybody alongside Jacobs.
The swap didn’t move the needle at all in the Super Bowl market, as the Packers are still 20/1.
This post was updated after the Packers released Aaron Jones.
Mid-Afternoon Super Bowl LIX Odds Update
Odds movement:
Cowboys 14/1 -> 17/1
Eagles 20/1 -> 17/1
Falcons 35/1 -> 28/1
Vikings Defense Continues Loading Up on Free Agents
Earlier today, the Vikings signed Jonathan Greenard, but they’ve also retooled their linebacking corps, signing LBs Blake Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel. Under the tutelage of first-year defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings had the highest blitz rate in the NFL, but ranked around the league average in sacks. It sure looks like they plan to hit the QB more this upcoming season.
Along with the defensive signings, reports are circulating that the Vikings are pursuing Sam Darnold, as they may opt to take a year and see how the QB class shakes out in the 2025 NFL Draft.
They’re still 60/1 to win the Super Bowl and sit well behind all three NFC North foes, but the defense is definitely better today than it was yesterday.
Packers Add S Xavier McKinney
With the running back position squared away, the Packers opted to spend some money on defense, adding the former Giants safety to their secondary. McKinney was thought to be arguably the top available safety in free agency and bolstering the secondary in a division with Jared Goff and Caleb Williams seems like a good idea. The Packers also only had seven interceptions last season, the second-fewest in the NFL. McKinney had three for NYG.
Again, like most signings today, no impact on the Super Bowl odds, but these are all moves to think about for win totals and draft props.
Panthers Sign OG Robert Hunt
The Dolphins haven’t done much to add to their team today, but they’ve lost a couple of key pieces. The latest is Hunt, who signed a five-year, $100M deal with $63M guaranteed to block for Bryce Young and the Panthers.
The Panthers are still among the longest of long shots to win the Super Bowl. The Dolphins are 17/1 and haven’t moved today.
Minshew Mania Hits Sin City
The Raiders are rumored to be deep in talks for the services of Justin Fields, but for now, QB Gardner Minshew will be battling it out with Aidan O’Connell for the starting gig. Minshew picked up a two-year deal worth $25M.
It did not move the Raiders’ futures price. Fields probably would, but with Las Vegas at 100/1, it would likely be a move on the news and not on betting action.
Gus The Bus Heads Across the Country
RB Gus Edwards went from one Harbaugh to the other, as he’ll joined newly-hired Jim in Los Angeles as a member of the Chargers. Not a line-moving deal by any means, however, there is some speculation that this sets the stage for Derrick Henry in Baltimore. That one might move the needle a little bit.
For now, the Chargers get their Austin Ekeler replacement. LA saw a big line move when Harbaugh was hired and currently sit at 28/1.
Titans Remain Active
The Titans lost CB Sean Murphy-Bunting to the Cardinals earlier today, but picked up former Bengal Chidobe Awuzie on a three-year pact. Tennessee still has to solve that whole QB thing, but the Titans are building a pretty decent supplemental roster and sit at 12/1 to win the AFC South.
The Titans also grabbed C Lloyd Cushenberry from the Broncos and gave him the biggest guaranteed contract for a free agent center. They’re certainly trying to level up the roster, despite the long odds.
Commanders Sign RB Austin Ekeler
With the Chargers picking up Gus Edwards earlier, it was all but a certainty that Ekeler would move on. He finds a home with the Commanders and new OC Kliff Kingsbury. The Commanders are 100/1 to win the Super Bowl and Ekeler or any other signing won’t change that. But, he is a nice piece and a nice player.
One Final Monday Update
As the dust settles on a tremendously busy NFL day, a few housekeeping items:
The Bengals waived RB Joe Mixon and replaced him with Zack Moss.
The Browns held on to DE Za’Darius Smith and also picked up LB Jordan Hicks.
The Patriots reunited with QB Jacoby Brissett.
The Giants picked up a solid defensive piece in Brian Burns for a couple draft picks.
The Lions and Bucs completed a trade that sent CB Carlton Davis to Detroit for a third-round pick.
And here’s how the Super Bowl LIX odds look.
Line movement from morning to night:
Cowboys 14/1 -> 16/1
Eagles 20/1 -> 17/1
Dolphins 17/1 -> 18/1
Falcons 35/1 -> 25/1
Jaguars 35/1 -> 40/1
Colts 55/1 -> 60/1
Seahawks 60/1 -> 65/1
Vikings 60/1 -> 75/1
Steelers 70/1 -> 75/1
Cardinals 80/1 -> 100/1
Broncos 100/1 -> 120/1
Tuesday Updates
The second day of NFL Free Agency is upon us and the news cycle is spinning at a breakneck pace once again. Here are some of the highlights and an updated look at the Super Bowl LIX odds:
The Ravens did in fact sign RB Derrick Henry to a two-year deal, pushing the Ravens down from +950 to +900.
The Dolphins finally had somebody come in instead of going out with LB Shaq Barrett on a one-year pact. Based on how yesterday went, though, Miami is down to 19/1 after sitting at 17/1 on Monday morning.
The Browns picked up some depth with backup QB Jameis Winston and change-of-pace back Nyheim Hines.
The Commanders also added QB depth by grabbing Marcus Mariota.
The Vikings officially signed QB Sam Darnold late Monday night. They also signed Aaron Jones after he was released by rival Green Bay. Neither move adjusted the odds, which are still 75/1.
The Rams continued to have a really strong couple of days by reuniting with CB Darious Williams. I know that division is tough, but the 35/1 price tag remains really tempting.
The Falcons got Kirk Cousins another weapon by signing WR Darnell Mooney. They’re 25/1 after a lot of movement the last couple of weeks.
The Texans traded for Joe Mixon from the Bengals. Houston has also had a couple of really nice days in free agency.
The Titans still have that pesky QB issue to worry about, but they grabbed LB Kenneth Murray. They’ve made a lot of nice moves over the last couple of days, but are still among the longest of long shots.
The Panthers are really prioritizing protection for Bryce Young. They signed OG Damien Lewis after signing OG Robert Hunt earlier in the day. There is a high correlation between guard play and short QBs (keeping DTs from batting passes), so it makes sense to get interior linemen. Those guys are actually getting some nice bags in FA thus far.
Wednesday Updates
The Jets made a move to address their offensive line, swapping fourth-round picks with the Ravens to bring in OT Morgan Moses. Moses was a starter for New York in 2021.
The Chargers released WR Mike Williams, who was the seventh overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Los Angeles then restructured DE Khalil Mack’s deal to free up more salary space.
In an absolute stunner, the Titans agreed to a four-year, $92 million deal ($50 million fully guaranteed) with WR Calvin Ridley. The 29-year-old is coming off a season in which he hauled in 76 passes for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns. Tennessee has been aggressive in free agency thus far, and the team now has another big-time wideout for QB Will Levis.
The Commanders are signing LB Bobby Wagner to a one-year deal. Wagner reunites with Washington head coach Dan Quinn, who was once a defensive coordinator for the Seahawks. Wagner had a career-high 183 total tackles in 2023 and continues to grade out as a very good linebacker by Pro Football Focus. He was a Pro Bowler and All-Pro last season.
The post NFL Free Agency Tracker: How the Super Bowl LIX Odds Have Moved appeared first on VSiN.
