Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, March 30, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): ORLANDO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MILWAUKEE
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, ORLANDO
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): MEMPHIS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): ORLANDO ML
This last system involves totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MEM-ORL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Under the total was 95-63-1 (60.1%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/30: Under the total in ATLANTA-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 223)
Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season
There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.
– ATLANTA is 20-23 SU and 15-28 ATS (34.9%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season
3/30 vs. Milwaukee
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+4 vs MIL)
– MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 24-20 SU but 16-28 ATS (36.4%).
3/30 at Atlanta
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-4 at ATL)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA is 21-37 SU and 18-39 ATS in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
3/30: Fade ATLANTA vs. Milwaukee
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+4 vs MIL)
* ATLANTA was 33-14 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario in the last two seasons
3/30: Over the total in MILWAUKEE-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 155-30 SU but just 78-104-3 ATS (42.9%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (-13 vs MEM)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-63 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 148-122 (54.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 197-142 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MEM-ORL (o/u at 205.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble.
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 131-79 SU but 92-114-4 ATS (44.7%) in the follow-up contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. Included among this is a 78-101 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match: FADE MEMPHIS (+13 at ORL)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous.
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 106-113 SU but 114-92-3 ATS (55.3%), including 83-49 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-6 at NOP)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well.
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 150-127 SU and 158-112-7 ATS (58.5%) run.
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (+4 vs MIL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK SYSTEMS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +6 (+1.7), 2. MEMPHIS +13 (+0.9), 3. ATLANTA +4 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +4 (+1.3), 2. NEW ORLEANS +6 (+1.0)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -13 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-ATL OVER 223 (+0.8), 2. BOS-NOP OVER 223 (+0.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-ORL UNDER 205.5 (-1.8)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +6 (+2.0), 2. MEMPHIS +13 (+1.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -4 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-NOP OVER 223 (+2.0), 2. MIL-ATL OVER 223 (+1.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-ORL UNDER 205.5 (-1.2)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(525) BOSTON at (526) NEW ORLEANS
* Under the total is 6-2 in last eight of the BOS-NOP series in New Orleans
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(527) MEMPHIS at (528) ORLANDO
* MEMPHIS is 8-4 ATS vs. Orlando since 2018
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS
(529) MILWAUKEE at (530) ATLANTA
* Home teams are 8-4 ATS in the MIL-ATL series since 2021
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS
The post VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report – March 30 appeared first on VSiN.
