UFC 300 Best Bets
The monster fight card that is UFC 300 is upon us! Thirteen matchups comprised twelve athletes who are current champions or former champions. Each fighter on this card is worthy of headlining any Fight Night or PPV. In this case, we benefit from a slate of elite matchups and some opportunities for UFC 300 best bets.
Last week at UFC Fight Night 90, Chepe Mariscal, who was released +105, earned a close decision win that, in all honesty, I had scored for his opponent.
In the UFC, fights that go to the judge’s scorecards become very risky business as the criteria for judging fights has recently been tweaked to consider “damage” over “control.”
Compounding matters is the stringent inconsistency by which these decisions have been ruled under the “supposed” new guidelines. At the end of the day, the results will be difficult to understand, some even impossible to figure out. Such is the fight game when it comes to judging.
Heading into this epic UFC 300 fight slate, digital results, including that Chepe win, stand 9-5 +7.27.
Last week’s second release, the first leg of a parlay involving Alex Morono -295 was a winner. He is paired with Jalin Turner -215, who fights in this event. The parlay placed last week returns 1 full unit on an investment of 1.04 units.
Let’s look at a handful of bouts.
Alex Pereira -130 vs. Jamahal Hill +110
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds) Championship
Hill, a brown belt in BJJ, is the former champion who vacated the belt because of an Achilles injury suffered last July.
He is a deft boxer/striker with great movement and substantial power, but he is singularly dimensioned. He has come into this fight with an abbreviated fight camp, choosing to take advantage of being a headliner for this event at the request of the UFC who was struggling to find a banner main event matchup.
Pereira, the current champion, is also a brown belt in BJJ. But under the instruction of a more renown Jiu-Jitsu head, he is also a black belt in kickboxing, where, based on his body of work, he is regarded as an ultra-elite, world-class talent.
Pereira utilizes a formidable leg kick attack that immediately compromises opponents. Then, when the adversary’s mobility is compromised, he moves in to inflict harm.
Hill’s decision to take this short-notice five-round championship off an Achilles injury that was incurred under a year ago, coupled with Pereira’s being the more versed mixed martial artist and the more refined striker, makes Pereira a bargain at current pricing.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Over -175
Zhang Weili -485 vs. Yan Xiaonan +375
Woman’s Strawweight (115 pounds) Championship
Yan was the first woman signed to the UFC from China. She is primarily a striker who recently received a blue belt in BJJ.
Yan’s primarily a boxer who is just becoming more comfortable wrestling at age 36. She will be the slightly taller fighter in this bout but her level of competition pales in comparison to her Chinese adversary Weili.
Weili, the current champion is a brown belt in BJJ, a structured wrestler and a profusely powerful striker/kicker who is extremely focused on forcing aggression directly to opponents.
Zhang has faced and defeated the elite of the division and is currently on her second stint as titleholder. Her five-round experience against a far superior level of competition, her more complete, diverse fighting arsenal, and her innate power qualify her as a deserving, heavy favorite in these five-round championship bouts.
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds. Over -150
Justin Gaethje -175 vs. Max Holloway +145
Lightweight (155 pounds) BMF Championship
Gaethje defends the BMF belt he earned when he head-kick KO’d Dustin Poirier last July.
Gaethje is a former D1 college wrestler who possesses fight-finishing striking power. He utilizes numbing low leg kicks and is as forward-pressing and aggressive a fighter as can be found on the UFC roster.
Gaethje has competed against the class of the division and, since 2019, has only had setbacks against Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov, both world-class grappling/wrestling talents, which Holloway is not. On the feet, Gaethje is a chainsaw.
His opponent, Max Holloway, is the former champion at the 145-pound. division. Holloway wandered up to lightweight five years ago to face the aforementioned Poirier, only to undertake an absolute beating in that bout.
It is my position, and Holloway’s, that he took that fight without the necessary due diligence to compete in the 155-pound division.
For this bout, Holloway’s eight months to adapt his already structured frame to lightweight, as opposed to the three-plus months he took previously for this challenge, force me to regard him very seriously, though it is quite possible his best days have left him.
Holloway is a fluid-moving striker who accrues damage over time and with volume, for he has little pure punching power. He chooses to sharpshoot opponents with matriculated precision striking and brilliant counters.
From the opening bell, Gaethje will apply an aggressive forward attack to feast, while Holloway must use footwork/movement to maintain distance in his effort to piece up Gaethje with precision, volume fists, kicks, and elbows. The thirty-foot cage is an asset to Holloway.
This fight will be a stylistic masterpiece.
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds. Over -165
Jalin Turner -240 vs. Renato Moicano +185
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Brazilian athlete Moicano is a black belt in BJJ and Muay Thai striking. He is long and lean and can hold his own while fighting on his feet. Moicano is lethal in his grappling and ability to dominate adversaries on the ground, which is his forte.
At thirty-four and after a few recent wins, Moicano has become highly marketable in the organization. The fighter has learned English and parlayed it with a heavy dose of trash-talking. His newly founded effervescent personality, coupled with recent favorable matchups, has jettisoned him up the ranks of the division to his current rank of thirteen.
Turner, the tenth-ranked athlete in the division, will compete against Moicano at the opposite end of the octagon.
Turner will be the larger athlete in the cage,, with a 4-inch advantage in height and as arm/leg reach. He is also six years younger.
Turner is 6-2 in the division since 202, with losses only to ninth-ranked Dan Hooker and fourth-ranked Mateusz Gamrot, who is a chain wrestling machine.
It was that loss experience against Gamrot, a bout Turner took on just a few days’ notice, that provided the foundation for my confidence in the handicap for this fight.
When the bell for this fight rings, Turner will appear to be fighting at a higher weight class. His height, length, larger frame, and takedown defense will allow him to thwart Moicano’s incoming grappling advances.
To be competitive in this fight, Moicano must advance forward to engage. This is a prescription for damage in a larger cage against a much younger, larger, more adroit man.
Turner is an ascending athlete in the division, and he is facing a scrapper in Moicano who is made for him when size, age and fighting style are handicapped.
Turner is currently -240, yet because of the parlay applied last week with Morono, digital readers hold Turner at the advantageous price of -104.
UFC 300 Best Bet: Turner -1.04u to earn 1.0u
Total in this fight: 1.5 Pick-em.
*Those unable to realize the parlay prescribed in last week’s column may consider Turner “to win via Finish” -165, available at DraftKings Sportsbook under the “Winning Method” tab.
Bobby Green -175 vs. Jim Miller +145
Lightweight (155 pounds)
In July 2009, at UFC 100, Jim Miller defeated Mac Danzig via decision. In July 2016 Jim defeated Takanori Gomi via finish in round one. Now, for UFC 300, the 40-year-old Miller takes on Bobby “King” Green.
Miller, 26-16-1 in UFC competition, is a well-rounded mixed martial artist who has seen everything the fight game can offer throughout his storied career.
In this fight, he finally gets a chance to face an athlete he had been scheduled to face three times before, but each of those bouts was canceled for one reason or another.
Green is no spring chicken at 37, but he is one of few UFC fighters competing professionally when Miller competed in UFC 100.
These two cagey UFC veterans finally get their chance to “get it on.”
Unfortunately for Miller, Green is three years younger. He is a much more athletic combatant and a most underrated wrestler, though he rarely utilizes his skilled wrestling in fights.
On the feet, Green is a slick customer who moves with grace and fluidity. He is an expert counterstriker who can damage opponents from any angle, moving forward, backward, or laterally, and he carries power in the quickness of his strikes.
The knock on Green used to be his lack of preparedness and commitment for bouts but on this stage and with Green coming in off a KO loss against Jalin Turner, it is my handicap that Green will overwhelm Miller on Saturday.
Bobby Green is simply too fast, too precise with his striking, and too athletic for Jim Miller at this stage of Miller’s career.
Green opened -210 for this fight, so I will gladly take the discount.
UFC 300 Best Bet: Green 1.80u to earn 1.0u
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -145
My ‘Bout Business Podcast has six releases lined up for UFC 300, with a few more to be dished after weigh-ins Friday. Catch the podcast only at GambLou.com.
Thank you for reading, and enjoy this epic fight card.
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