Draft Grades Do Not Predict Team Success
My next order of business in prepping for the upcoming NFL season is to look at the draft. While I can summarize the findings by stating that they aren’t earth-shattering by any means, I have a few examples of teams that could be expected to improve or decline in 2024 based on recent drafts. A handful of years ago, I set out hoping to find whether or not there was any correlation between a team’s NFL draft grades and its success or lack thereof on the field.
The NFL is essentially a 12-month-a-year league nowadays, and it seems as if there is nothing more scrutinized each offseason than the three days that make up the drafting process. The way the experts and graders sing it, you would figure that it is of ultra-importance when considering how teams will fare in the next season or two, right? Well, in essence, I have found that not to be the case. While there are specific examples otherwise which I will share, the draft and the grades associated really make for little more than a great conversational point.
With all due respect to VSiN’s own Matt Youmans, who does “Youman’s work” in both predicting the draft and analyzing it thereafter, unfortunately, I started cataloging the draft grade data a few years before I began working with the illustrious Youmans. Thus, I use a different, though consistent, source for tracking the draft grades. That reliable source is Sports Illustrated, as they have typically put out their full analysis within 24 hours of the final pick being made. In the nine years I have tracked their grades, I have only seen seven grades below a C-, including one this week, Dallas. At the same time, there have only been nine A+ grade, with two coming this year, Chicago & Washington. The average grade since 2016 has been exactly a B, or in numerical scales, a 3.001. With this steady analysis serving as the foundation of my study, I have again compared the regular season won-lost records in recent years to the grades that SI assigned the teams for their draft work.
As proven once again in my findings, there was little concrete evidence to suggest that anything that teams did on draft weekend made a substantial direct impact on their fortunes on the field in the near future. Now, I’m not so ignorant to say that the players picked each year on draft weekend don’t mean anything to their team’s fortunes, as obviously they are the next cornerstones for franchises. I’m merely trying to convey that the grades you see given by sources like SI.com should be given entertainment value only at this point, and not used for thinking that what happened last weekend and the grade associated with it is going to instantly transform a team.
In my own personal opinion, the greater factors that contribute immediately to quick improvement or decline for any team are injury issues, free agent signings, coaching changes, and momentum swings. I wouldn’t let any team’s draft grade serve as the basis for an upcoming season futures wager for myself.
I actually believe there is greater credence that comes with sources that go back years later and “re-grade” team drafts, since that type of analysis is far more accurate after seeing the picks mature into successful pros after a few seasons.
In short, don’t overreact to anything you saw or read about the 2024 NFL draft. I can assure you that it will take some time for that to sort itself out. The fact that the Bears and Commanders received A+ grades is certainly reason for optimism at both franchises, but neither was a playoff team last year, and there is still much work to be done.
Supposedly, both franchises have their quarterbacks of the future in place, and in my opinion, that means more than anything. Similarly, I’m sure Cowboys fans are not feeling great after last weekend’s D+ proceedings, but they are coming off back-to-back-to-back 12-5 seasons and need some playoff luck to break their way more than anything else.
In general, SI.com tends to grade from a glass-half-full standpoint, with an average grade point of 3.0, or a B, over the last eight drafts, including 2024. Again, only seven of the 288 teams to draft since 2016 were given a grade worse than C-. The only team that had been given a “D-” grade was the Vikings of 2022. How did that ugly interpretation of Minnesota’s work that weekend affect the franchise? Well, rookie head coach Kevin O’Connell’s team went from 8-9 to 13-4 following that draft. Following that up last year, both teams that received D+ grades actually won at least two more games than the prior year following that supposed slight. This is not an exact science, and again, a team’s prospects hinge on so many factors besides a draft grade.
Similarly, SI.com had awarded seven A+ grades in the seven drafts prior to this past weekend. Looking at the fortunes of those six teams, five of them dropped by at least two wins in the next regular season, including the 2016 Bengals, who plummeted from 12-4 to 6-9-1. This past year’s Eagles received an A+ grade for the second straight draft season but fell by three wins in the standings.
Those rare grades at opposite ends of the spectrum were mostly misses by their authors. That said, to the staff at SI’s credit, I have found that they are right more often than they are wrong. This is why I chose them as the source for my data to study. Their work in this field can be at least considered credible.
Take a look at the list below which shows the 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year eventual regular season win differences for teams that were assigned grades in each of the numerical levels since 2016.
Grade: Avg Win +/- 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr, 4-yr
A’s: +0.34, +0.85, +0.68, +1.48
B’s: -0.22, -0.2, +0.13, -0.2
C/D’s: +0.42, +0.13, -0.03, +0
As I studied this list, here are some of the thoughts I have deducted:
- The grades in the “A” generally showed consistent improvement, with the four-year improvement the only one predicting any noticeable improvement. I will share the teams qualifying for this improvement angle shortly.
- The “B” level grades, or essentially the average marks, actually fare the worst, with all four various time scenarios showing declines in the average wins of teams. It seems that it’s better to make waves, good or bad, on draft weekend than to just perform at the average level.
- The grades on the extreme lower (C or less) for the most part turned out to be misses is terms of their predictive nature. In fact, teams with the lowest draft grades actually tended to get a little better the next season, by almost a half win per season. Of course, there are many factors, including where the team drafted, free agency, luck, momentum swings, and coaching changes, among other things that can contribute to these results.
Looking closer at the potential win improvements from past draft grades, and focusing on the +1.48 win group four years after the A grade, these would be the teams theoretically expected to improve from their 2020 records for 2024 based on their 2021 draft grades. In theory, you would have to think that the majority of the players in these highly respected draft classes are fourth year pro’s now and main contributors to their respective franchises.
2021 A Grades (2020 Record)
Chicago Bears (8-8)
Cleveland Browns (11-5)
Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
Miami Dolphins (10-6)
San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
Of course, if the 49ers were to improve by just 1.48 wins on that 6-10 record, they would win just 7.48 games this season, a significant decline from a team that played in the Super Bowl this past February. Clearly, the Packers, Browns, and Chargers would be the big winners in this trend hold.
Another interesting way to look at this draft grade information is to focus on the cumulative grades by team against their on-the-field success over the last five seasons. Here are the NFL’s 32 teams in alphabetical order with their average SI.com draft grade and league ranking for the time period of 2018-23 as compared to their regular season won-lost record in that same span:
Note that I have used a common grade point average scale for quantifying the draft grades. I.e. A – 4.0, A- 3.7, B+ 3.3, etc.
Team: SI.com 6-year Draft Grade (Rank), Won-Lost Record (Rank)
Arizona Cardinals: 2.55 (28), 35-63-1 (28)
Atlanta Falcons: 2.88 (22), 39-60 (24)
Baltimore Ravens: 3.38 (2), 66-33 (2)
Buffalo Bills: 3.07 (11), 64-34-1 (3)
Carolina Panthers: 2.83 (23), 31-68 (32)
Chicago Bears: 3.02 (15), 44-55 (20)
Cincinnati Bengals: 3.17 (7), 43-54-2 (21)
Cleveland Browns: 2.78 (25), 50-48-1 (18)
Dallas Cowboys: 2.82 (24), 60-39 (6)
Denver Broncos: 3.17 (8), 38-61 (26)
Detroit Lions: 3.22 (4), 38-59-2 (25)
Green Bay Packers: 3.57 (1), 62-36-1 (5)
Houston Texans: 2.9 (21), 42-56-1 (23)
Indianapolis Colts: 3.18 (6), 50-48-1 (17)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2.52 (29), 33-66 (31)
Kansas City Chiefs: 2.93 (20), 75-24 (1)
Las Vegas Raiders: 2.32 (32), 43-56 (22)
Los Angeles Chargers: 2.95 (18), 57-42 (10)
Los Angeles Rams: 3 (17), 50-49 (19)
Miami Dolphins: 2.78 (26), 51-48 (16)
Minnesota Vikings: 2.95 (19), 53-45-1 (12)
New England Patriots: 3.05 (13), 52-47 (15)
New Orleans Saints: 2.5 (30), 63-36 (4)
New York Giants: 3.17 (9), 34-64-1 (29)
New York Jets: 3.22 (5), 34-65 (30)
Philadelphia Eagles: 3.38 (3), 52-46-1 (14)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 3.07 (12), 58-39-2 (7)
San Francisco 49ers: 3.12 (10), 58-41 (8)
Seattle Seahawks: 2.73 (27), 58-41 (9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3.02 (16), 53-46 (13)
Tennessee Titans: 3.05 (14), 54-45 (11)
Washington Commanders: 2.48 (31), 36-62-1 (27)
A few highlights from this:
- The teams that have both played and drafted well would be considered: Baltimore, Green Bay, and San Francisco. All are ranked in top 10 in both draft rank and won-lost record.
- The teams that have struggled on draft weekend and on the field over the last five years have been: Arizona, Carolina, Jacksonville, and Washington. All are bottom 10 ranked teams in both categories.
- Teams that have greatly outperformed their supposed draft respect have been: New Orleans (+26), Kansas City (+19), Dallas & Seattle (+18). Dallas received a D+ grade in this year’s draft and figures to continue that trend. Of the four listed here, Kansas City received the best grade for its 2024 draft, B+.
- Teams that have not consistently transferred draft success to the playing field: NY Jets (-25), Detroit (-21), NY Giants (-20) & Denver (-18). Both the Lions and Jets received their A-level grades this season while the Giants and Broncos both earned C+ grades.
Team-By-Team Draft Analysis
The last thing I looked to study was each individual team’s draft performance. As you’ll see below, there have been some interesting patterns that have emerged in correlation between draft grades on on-field success. In other cases, draft analysis and winning football games has been purely random.
Team: Draft Grades 2024, ‘23, ‘22, ‘21, ‘20
Arizona Cardinals NFL Draft Grades: B+, B-, D, C, B+
Steve’s thoughts: Off back-to-back 4-13 seasons, the Cardinals received their best draft grade since 2020 this past weekend, much ado to the fanfare surrounding the abilities of WR Marvin Harrison, Jr. It remains to be seen what long-term impact he’ll have on the franchise, but he sure brings some excitement with him, being perhaps the highest rated WR prospect ever out of college. For the record though, Arizona’s best recent season (11-6 in 2021) followed a four-year stretch of its highest draft grades (3.32 DGPA)
Atlanta Falcons NFL Draft Grades: A, B, B-, B, B+
Steve’s thoughts: The Falcons draft this year was its most highly-rated since prior to 2016. Curiously, their choice of QB Michael Penix at #8 after signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year contract did not drag the grade down. How that mix works out remains to be seen, but whoever the permanent QB turns out to be will be blessed by a plethora of recently drafted young offensive skill talent. Still, this franchise has shown exactly seven wins in five of the last six seasons and it’s far too early to hope this year’s A grade puts them over that hump.
Baltimore Ravens NFL Draft Grades: A-, B+, A+, B+, A-
Steve’s thoughts: Baltimore always seems to get respect from the analysts at SI for its draft work. Having a consistent front office staff can weigh in on this. With a nine-year draft GPA of 3.44, and just one season under .500 since 2016, this franchise always seems to be on the right path. Getting by Kansas City will be the only thing that matters in 2024 however, not draft grades.
Buffalo Bills NFL Draft Grades: C-, B, B-, B, B
Steve’s thoughts: Buffalo’s emergence as an AFC power back around 2019 seemed to coincide with a strong draft grade run from 2016 to 2019. The Bills received three A-level grades in that span but none since, including this year, when they bottomed out with a C- grade. I questioned last year at this time whether or not they could be hitting their ceiling? After another playoff failure this past January was followed by several key personnel losses including WR Stefon Diggs, it’s looking more and more likely that is the case.
Carolina Panthers NFL Draft Grades: B+, A, C, C, B
Steve’s thoughts: The Panthers have the worst record in all of the NFL over the last six seasons so you’d have to think that the last two draft classes, each rated B+ or better, have a great opportunity to make a difference for this franchise. However, when you look back at last year’s grade of A, highlighted of course by the selection of QB Bryce Young, you have to perhaps reconsider the actual quality of that crop. Young’s struggles last year, if not corrected, could be a huge drain on this team for years to come, as they unloaded a king’s ransom in players and picks to get him.
Chicago Bears NFL Draft Grades: A+, B, C, A-, B-
Steve’s thoughts: Chicago received an A+ grade for its 2024 draft, but you have to remember that the bears also received a A-level grade when they picked QB Justin Fields a few years back. That of course did not lead to riches for this franchise, as Fields is not with the Steelers after three volatile seasons. This team needs #1 pick QB Caleb Williams to succeed in order to get out of the rut that has seen five straight seasons of .500 ball or less.
Cincinnati Bengals NFL Draft Grades: B-, B, B, C+, A-
Steve’s thoughts: Cincinnati had a string of five straight seasons between 2016 and 2020 in which it received draft grades of B+ or better. It finally paid off in ’21 when the Bengals went 10-7 and reached a Super Bowl. They followed that up with a 12-4-1 mark in 2022. The grades of the last four drafts haven’t been quite as strong and the franchise has started to lose some of its best young players that made up the core of the recent success. That said, a healthy QB Joe Burrow should keep them near the top of the AFC.
Cleveland Browns NFL Draft Grades: C, C-, B+, A, B+
Steve’s thoughts: Cleveland’s draft performance over the last eight years may be among the least consistent in the league according to SI. Two “A” grades, four “C” grades, and three in between. The two most recent classes are downgraded as the franchise tries to work off the transaction that landed QB DeShawn Watson. Surely, if possible, the team would go back in time and undo that move. That said, off an 11-6 season, one in which Watson missed a lot of time, the Browns proved they are far more than their quarterback and should continue their winning ways.
Dallas Cowboys NFL Draft Grades: D+, C, C+, B, A+
Steve’s thoughts: The Cowboys have gone 12-5 in back-to-back-to-back seasons and theoretically should only need to retool each year. That doesn’t lessen the disappointment of three straight grades of C+ or worse in the draft. Is this year’s team improved? Ready to make a run in the NFC playoffs? I wouldn’t say so by what has been lost, particularly with former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn leaving, nor by what has been netted from the draft.
Denver Broncos NFL Draft Grades: C+, D+, B, B+, A
Steve’s thoughts: From 2016-22, Denver received a draft grade point average of 3.57 from SI, best in the league. The team never reached double-digit wins in any of those seasons. I personally started to suspect a bit of bias from the SI staff on their review of Broncos’ draft performances. Well, in back-to-back years, the Denver front office has been bludgeoned for its draft work with grades of C+ and D+. The franchise’s love for QB Bo Nix was particularly scrutinized last week. I personally like the pick and believe Nix could be a more advanced young QB because of his age (24). He was a gritty tough-nosed player for both Auburn and Oregon and could be underrated headed into 2024 now that QB Russell Wilson has moved on to Pittsburgh.
Detroit Lions NFL Draft Grades: A, C+, A, B-, A
Steve’s thoughts: The Lions are a great example of SI getting it right for a franchise. From 2019 through 2022, Detroit received grades of B+, A, B-, and A. They turned that haul into a 12-5 season last year, and now the 2024 draft received another A grade. It’s pretty safe to say that this team looks poised for a lengthy run of success, as they have collected as much good young talent as anyone and are dynamic on both sides of the ball.
Green Bay Packers NFL Draft Grades: B+, B+, A, A-, B-
Steve’s thoughts: The Packers have had a franchise tendency of making moves to increase the number of draft picks they own each year. The result is usually a respected bolstering of young talent each spring. SI has certainly gotten behind this strategy in awarding Green Bay with solid grades year-after-year. At this point, with the way QB Jordan Love and several of the players around him developed, particularly in 2023, it could be argued that SI would probably even bolster those high grades if reevaluating the classes. Head coach Matt LaFleur’s team looks primed for lengthy success.
Houston Texans NFL Draft Grades: B-, A, B, B-, B-
Steve’s thoughts: The Texans’ last three draft classes are their best consecutive graded over the last nine years. Does that mean this franchise is ready to build on its 10-7 division winning season in ’23? It sure looks like it, as QB CJ Stroud and LB Will Anderson, the highlight pieces of last year’s A graded draft, appear on their way to being stars. Plus, the move to send Deshaun Watson packing a couple years ago is the gift that keeps on giving.
Indianapolis Colts NFL Draft Grades: B+, A-, A, B, A-
Steve’s thoughts: Indianapolis has received three grades in the A range in the last five years and hasn’t been below a grade of B since 2018. In an ideal world, that would mean a lengthy run of success. However, the Colts have won double-digit games just once in that span and are 40-42 overall. There were some good signs last year that the young talent is coming around as they finished 9-8 and reached the playoffs, but there is still a huge looming question as to who will be this team’s long-term quarterback.
Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Draft Grades: C, C-, B-, C+, B-
Steve’s thoughts: Jacksonville is definitely not trending in the right direction in terms of its draft performances. In four straight years, the Jaguars have been graded as B- or worse. That said, they have their quarterback of the future, their most respected head coach in many years, and are coming off back-to-back 9-8 seasons. After not reaching the playoffs last year, the 2024 season will be a critical one for Jacksonville and head coach Doug Pederson to prove they are still moving forward. Otherwise the recent disrespected draft classes could become more of an issue.
Kansas City Chiefs NFL Draft Grades: B+, B, A, C+, C+
Steve’s thoughts: Kansas City has become the premiere franchise in the NFL, and with that comes the “reward” of being the, or one of the, last teams to draft each spring. That naturally has an impact on the level of success a team achieves in the eyes of SI. Still, to put in perspective how wrong draft analysis can be, most experts considered QB Patrick Mahomes a risky project pick back in 2017, much of the reason the Chiefs only received an average grade that year. Obviously looking back at that year, it was the most impactful draft class in the history of the franchise and Chiefs fans are continuously rewarded by it. The last three classes got solid grades, and it seems these groups are just adding to the plethora of talent in KC.
Las Vegas Raiders NFL Draft Grades: B, C+, B+, C, C+
Steve’s thoughts: The Raiders are a franchise that seems to receive a little bias from SI analysts, only in this case they seem to be wildly against anything they do. does. Receiving no grades of higher than B in the last eight years seems a little questionable. Of course, having won just 6.7 games per season over the last seven years, perhaps SI is correct. I think most experts felt the Raiders would make a move to grab one of the six first round QB’s in this year’s draft. They didn’t. It could be a bit of a gamble with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew in place to battle for the starting spot. What better place to gamble than Las Vegas I guess.
Los Angeles Chargers NFL Draft Grades: A-, C, B-, A-, B-
Steve’s thoughts: The Chargers first draft with Jim Harbaugh as their new head coach was tied for their best since 2017. That is a good start as they have a lot of ground to make up after losing many well-respected players, particularly on offense, from recent teams. Quarterback Justin Herbert is still in place, and prior to last year’s inconsistent performance, he was generally considered one of the best young QB’s in the game. Harbaugh has been away from the pro game for awhile but was a national champion in January and seems to have put an immediate imprint on making this team his own.
Los Angeles Rams NFL Draft Grades: A, B, B, B, A
Steve’s thoughts: The Rams have yielded a lot of draft capital in recent years due to other player transactions. It did result in a Super Bowl win following the 2021 season however, so all was worth it. This year’s was the first time they had a first-round pick in eight years in fact. That is a long time to go without adding sure-fire top-level talent. I said last year that this franchise could be on the verge of paying the price in the next couple of seasons and they responded with a 10-7 record. Perhaps that success, the development of several key players last season, and the addition of an A graded class this yer could stem the tide.
Miami Dolphins NFL Draft Grades: C+, D+, C, A-, B-
Steve’s thoughts: Miami has four straight seasons of plus-.500 football to boast of, yet has not won a playoff game since 2000. Much of the top talent for the Dolphins has been acquired in ways outside of the draft, so the fact that they have been graded three straight years at C+ or less shouldn’t be that big of a concern. However, where else can this team say it measurably improved in order to take the next step since its postseason loss to Kansas City in January?
Minnesota Vikings NFL Draft Grades: C+, B, D-, B+, A-
Steve’s thoughts: The Vikings of 2022 had the worst evaluated draft class of any team going back to 2016. No matter, they simply went out and won 13 games, improving by five wins over 2021. They fell back to earth last season, going 7-10 and have since moved on from QB Kirk Cousins. JJ McCarthy of Michigan is the supposed replacement as the team moved up to grab him with the 10th pick in the draft. The class as a whole didn’t receive a favorable grade, which I guess in a sense tells us all what SI thinks of the McCarthy pick. The immediate future in Minnesota looks like an era of rebuilding which could be tough considering the emerging obvious talent in places like Detroit and Green Bay, prime division rivals.
New England Patriots NFL Draft Grades: A-, B-, B-, B, C+
Steve’s thoughts: For many years in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era, the Patriots either picked late in the draft or had dealt their picks away in other transactions. As a result, their draft grades suffered. No matter, they had Brady and continued to win at a high rate. Now, when they need quality young players to bolster the roster and get back into contention, this season is the first in the eyes of SI that they did that. Highlighted by the selection of QB Drake Maye of North Carolina, the Patriots received an A- grade, their best since 2018. It might not come as early as this year in the first season post-Belichick, but a strong draft class could be the springboard to getting back into the AFC East hunt.
New Orleans Saints NFL Draft Grades: B, B, C, C, C-
Steve’s thoughts: The Saints have for long been one of the league’s top teams in terms of winning games against their draft success perception. They haven’t had a draft class graded better than B since 2019. Head coach Dennis Allen’s team is going to have to continue to exceed expectations again in 2024 if to contend in the NFC South. Having not addressed the quarterback position any further, they’ll need more production from Derek Carr than they got in 2023.
New York Giants NFL Draft Grades: C+, B+, A-, B+, B
Steve’s thoughts: You have to figure that Giants’ fans hoped and prayed for a reason for optimism, but after committing so much money to QB Daniel Jones prior to last year, the team elected to not choose one of the highly rated first round quarterbacks with their top selection last week. The experts at SI seem to have frowned on that move, scoring the New York collective draft performance with a C+. Wide receiver Malik Nabors of LSU was their top selection, but with Jones off a down and injury-riddled season, compounded by the free agent loss of RB Saquon Barkley, it’s hard to envision Nabors having a huge impact. After falling from 9-7-1 to 6-11, the magic from the hiring of head coach Brian Daboll seems to have worn off as well.
New York Jets NFL Draft Grades: A-, B-, A, B+, A-
Steve’s thoughts: Prior to last season, I remarked that regardless of the draft grades received, the impact that acquiring QB Aaron Rodgers might have on the immediate future of Jets was of foremost importance. Despite losing him after just four snaps into the first game, New York still managed a 7-10 season. Supposedly Rodgers will be fully healthy again for 2024, and with three of the last five draft classes graded as A-level, perhaps THIS is the year it finally comes together.
Philadelphia Eagles NFL Draft Grades: B-, A+, A+, B-, C
Steve’s thoughts: Last year, the Eagles added a second straight A+ draft class to their roster. Coming off a 14-3 season, it seemed that there was to be no stopping them in 2023. Instead, things unraveled after a hot start and Philadelphia eventually dropped by three games in the win column and was eliminated in the wildcard round of the playoffs. This year’s draft class didn’t get anywhere near the respect of its predecessors. Could than spell a further swoon for a team that was expected to be dynasty level at this time a year ago? With QB Jalen Hurts struggling badly down the stretch and rumors of internal turmoil plaguing the team, Philly’s run to the Super Bowl in 2023 might just wind up being looked back at as a one-ear wonder.
Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Draft Grades: A, A, A-, C+, C
Steve’s thoughts: Under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers’ draft classes have been wildly inconsistent, yet the franchise has continued to win, a testament to his leadership. However, over the last three years, the team has struck it rich on draft weekend according to the experts at SI. Can the offseason addition of QB Russell Wilson be the missing piece to putting all of this talent together into championship form? Quarterback play seems to be the only place this team has been lacking. If Tomlin let’s Russ cook, there is plenty of reason to think the Steelers could be a threat in the AFC.
San Francisco 49ers NFL Draft Grades: B, C+, B, A-, A-
Steve’s thoughts: The question for the 49ers always seems to be the same lately. What would the 49ers be capable of if they could get some elite production from the quarterback position? Despite Brock Purdy playing at a MVP level for a lot of the 2023 season, the doubters were still validated by another Super Bowl loss. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will stick by Purdy again for 2024 and adds a B-graded draft class to the mix. Looks like a lot of the same in San Francisco for 2024.
Seattle Seahawks NFL Draft Grades: C+, A-, C+, B-, B
Steve’s thoughts: Like the Patriots, the long-run of success between QB and head coach is officially over, as after Russell Wilson was jettisoned two years ago, Pete Carroll now departs ending an era of unprecedented success for the franchise. Mike Macdonald takes over but unfortunately his first draft class received just a C+ grade, tying for the franchise’s worst since 2018. He also inherits a potential QB controversy, with newly acquired Sam Howell expected to battle with Geno Smith for the starting job. With the talent level now down from the title years, and the pressure of relieving Carroll on his shoulders, you have to figure Macdonald’s first season could be a step backwards in Seattle.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Draft Grades: B+, C+, B-, B-, A-
Steve’s thoughts: In the three seasons with Tom Brady under center, it seemed that Tampa Bay opted for veteran players over youth, and now a year removed, the team has scored its best draft class grade since his arrival. They are also coming off a division winning season that also featured a playoff victory. Continued success will hinge on blending in the new talent and getting similar level production from QB Baker Mayfield.
Tennessee Titans NFL Draft Grades: C-, B+, B+, B+, B
Steve’s thoughts: I wrote about this last week, but I personally feel that the Titans’ firing of head coach Mike Vrabel wasn’t the most popular coaching move of the offseason. I personally liked the grit and toughness the team played with under him. Now, compounding the problem, Tennessee scored its worst draft grade since prior to 2016 in the first year post-Vrabel. Prior to that, this franchise’s draft work was the single most consistent in the league, scoring a B-level grade in eight straight years according to SI. I reasoned that was a big part in Vrabel keeping the team a playoff contender every year despite not having elite QB play. Will Levis has shown promise at the position, but the lack of RB Derrick Henry, the missing of Vrabel, and this negative draft momentum could hurt in 2024.
Washington Commanders NFL Draft Grades: A+, C, D, B+, B+
Steve’s thoughts: The experts at SI must really love the drafting of QB Jayden Daniels, as he was the feature pick in a class that received a rare A+ grade. There will be a ton of pressure on him to succeed since offense wasn’t really this team’s problem last year behind departed QB Sam Howell. Head coach Dan Quinn takes over and could be the missing piece in turning around a defense that yielded 30.5 PPG last year. If Daniels lives up to billing, the addition of A+ regarded talent and Quinn’s defensive prowess could send the Commanders forward in 2024.
Some of what I have uncovered here could help you with the recently released win totals for 2024 at places like DraftKings. I would personally suggest being patient with it however, as I can assure you that the statistical resume stuff I reveal in the next week or two on VSiN will be more definitive. Regardless, analyzing the draft analysis is always an interesting endeavor.
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