We are already nearing the end of the NBA Playoffs, as only four teams are standing right now. Throughout the rest of the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the Western Conference Finals game on Tuesday, May 28th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 28
NBA Best Bets Today – May 28
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 pm ET
I have been on the Under twice in this series and have been burned twice. In fact, all three of the games in this series have gone Over the total thus far. However, I’m still having a hard time passing on the Under on tonight’s total. Sure, Dallas put up 116 points in a Game 3 that saw the teams combining to score 223 points. But the Mavericks also shot 50.0% from 3 in that one, which is not something I’d expect them to do again. And overall, I don’t think we’ve seen a game in which both of these defenses have played at a high level at the same time. With this being an elimination game, this could be the night.
The Under is also 8-1 when Dallas plays with a total of 210 to 219.5 this season, and the average total points scored in such games is 202.0 points per game. The Timberwolves have also held opponents to an average of 101.9 points per game when coming off a loss in which their opponent scored at least 210 points this season. And if you’re not into trends, there’s still the fact that this Minnesota team was first in the league in defensive rating all year, while Dallas was first in the league in the final weeks of the regular season. I maintain that when two defensive-minded teams battle it out, you’re going to see lower scoring games more often than not. The first three games in this series aren’t changing that. The Mavericks could also get a little tight with this being a close-out game,.
Bet: Under 211 (-108)
NBA Player Props Today – May 28
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 pm ET
I’m a little surprised to see that these odds have swung this far. In Game 1, I took Gobert to have Over 2.5 blocks and steals at -150 and that play ended up hitting. Gobert also hit this Over in Game 2. Well, Gobert didn’t have a single block or steal in Game 3 of this series, so this is now available at plus-money odds. And while I know Gobert is a punchline right now, I feel like this is really hard to pass up on. While Gobert is being shredded nationally, his team knows what he brings to the defensive end on a nightly basis. So, he’s not at risk of seeing a drop in minutes. Sure, he can get into foul trouble again, which happened in Game 3. But that’s really the only thing that would prevent Gobert from playing at least 35 minutes. And with his block rate, and ability to come up with steals here and there, that’s all he needs to flirt with going Over this number.
Bet: Gobert Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks (+124 – 1.5 units)
2023-24 Record: 382-417-3 (+8.66 units)
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