Now that the NBA and NHL seasons are coming to a close, all eyes will be on baseball in the day-to-day gambling world for a while so let’s talk a little bit about MLB gambling theory. When I talk about my bets on VSiN, the most common reaction I get is, “Why are you playing so many 1st 5 inning bets” and that’s fair. To date, close to 80% of my bets are 1st 5 inning plays. My response is, “Why aren’t you playing more?”
When people handicap a game, there are four known factors about lineups, both starting pitchers and both starting offenses. That’s it. We don’t know who will be coming in from the bullpen or pinch hitting. The majority of the time, those changes are made after five innings. Why bet something that factors in unknowns when you can simply play known quantities?
Let’s start with totals. The most common handicap I hear that makes me shake my head is when people love and under because of the starting pitchers and their matchups, but play the full game under. For example, let’s say a total is set at 8.5, the 1st 5 total will be 4.5. In this case, you should always be playing the Under 1st 5 innings, not full game. First and foremost, it corresponds directly to why you handicapped the game. If both starters go six innings and pitch well, you are cashing your Under 4.5 and don’t have to sweat or worry about bullpens or lineup changes. You also avoid dreaded extra innings which can push a 2-2 game over 8.5 real quick. If you were wrong and one of the starters gets shelled, you will lose you 4.5 Under, but it’s unlikely that the game will stay under 8.5 anyway.
When we look at Overs, in my mind, there is more wiggle room to go full game. You capture the extra innings rule in a positive manner, and if you are factoring in tired or poor bullpens, you can project later-inning runs. The same can be said for Team Total Over plays, but if I am betting those, normally it is because I expect the offense to beat up on the starter. If that’s the case, I’m generally playing 1st 5 innings because I want my bet to be graded simply on how the starter fairs versus the team I am betting.
With sides, the argument is simple for moneyline bets, if you like one of the starts and not the other, then 1st 5 makes the most sense. Again, you are limiting the factors that are out of your control.
When playing run lines, it is not as cut and dry. Generally, the price to lay -1.5 Over the full game will be better than -0.5 Over the 1st 5 innings, so you are forced to decide how much of your handicap is based on starting pitching versus the game as a whole.
If I am looking to lay the runline with a home team, 99% of my bets will be 1st 5 innings. I’m simply not willing to give away the extra at bat if my team is up one in the ninth inning or lose the extra innings edge when winning by one when at home is a likely result.
If you are handicapping bullpen availability and usage on a day-to-day basis, then more power to you, but that’s not something most bettors factor in. If you, like most, and I’m including myself here, handicap mainly starting pitchers, then take a look at the 1st 5 markets. It’s made me a much more successful MLB bettor over the last two seasons.
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