It’s the final week of the UFL in the regular season, and to be fully transparent, it’s a weird week to make a UFL best bet.
For both the USFL and XFL Conferences we’re seeing Conference Championship previews on Saturday. This naturally begs the question: How will each team approach facing their playoff opponent in back-to-back weeks? How much might a team show or hold back? Will any players be held out for safety?
We also have two games on Sunday with “nothing” to play for, but in a “league of opportunity” every rep counts for game tape and pride.
Below we will try to quantify what’s on the line for each team this weekend and hopefully cash a few tickets.
We’re 15-10-1 overall on picks this season so let’s close it out strong!
Michigan Panthers at Birmingham Stallions
Saturday, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN
MICH +8 +290 7-2 SU // 4-5 ATS // O/U 4-5
BIRM -8 -420 8-1 SU // 6-3 ATS // O/U 4-5
- Total: 43.5 (OV -115, UN -115)
I will be on the sidelines in Birmingham for this one! While this game typically would matter for home field in the USFL Championship game, because of a scheduling snafu. Ford Field is booked next week and the Stallions will host the game regardless of this week’s outcome. Essentially, the game will still determine the sideline the teams will stand on, the locker rooms, and the coin toss, but the game will be at Protective Stadium.
Birmingham, who’s been the best team in the league by far since Week 1, has looked human the last couple weeks. They struggled to pull away as +16.5-point favorites vs. Houston and followed it up by getting upset by San Antonio last week for their first outright loss in 15 games.
Adrian Martinez will start, despite some thinking this is a throwaway game. Skip Holtz and Mike Nolan both made it clear they want their teams to have confidence going into the playoffs. Coach Nolan also made another interesting point: Players who are in this league, while yes would LOVE to win a championship, are playing for reps. They’re playing for game tape and an opportunity to get to the next level. Resting does nothing for them. If players are out it’s for injury, not to get ready for the postseason.
I’m waiting to see if we get a rushing yards prop for Martinez, but also lean over on his passing 173.5. He split time their first meeting with Michigan and still had 65 yds on the ground. He’s also gone over that pass yards # in 6 of 7 games since that Week 2 meeting.
For Michigan, it doesn’t look like we’re going to see RB Matt Colburn, which is a big loss considering they’re already down Wes Hills who was one of the best backs in the league. Nate McCrary saw his first action in the backfield last week and had 21 yards and a TD. If he’s the featured/starting back this week, his Over 31.5 rushing yards seems like a gift.
I also expect the same QB rotation as last week for Michigan. Danny Etling will get the first half and Bryce Perkins (who I’m calling “The Closer”) the second half.
I like those props and will probably take the dog in this game. Michigan is on a five-game win streak and has been favored most of those games. Bryce Perkins is a major difference-maker with his legs since getting in the rotation, and Birmingham has looked a little off. Eight points feels like a lot in this particular spot.
UFL Best Bets: Michigan +8
LEAN: Over 43.5
Also looking at Adrian Martinez and Nate McCrary props
San Antonio Brahmas at St. Louis Battlehawks
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, FOX
SA +2.5 +120 7-2 SU // 5-4 ATS // O/U 1-8
STL -2.5 -150 6-3 SU // 6-3 ATS // O/U 7-2
- Total: 42.5
Home field is actually on the line in this game! St. Louis’ loss at Arlington last week and San Antonio’s win vs. Birmingham gave us some good drama for Week 10.
Home field is extremely important to Battlehawks head coach Anthony Becht, which is understandable. St. Louis has the best home field in the league, and it’s not close, boasting 35,000+ in the stands each game.
Because of that, unfortunately, I think Becht might be rushing AJ McCarron back before he’s fully ready. McCarron has missed the last two weeks with an ankle injury but is listed as QB1 on the depth chart this week. San Antonio has the best pass rush in the league (UFL-high 29 sacks) and allows the fewest points in the league (15), which, to me, is cause for concern with an injured QB you need for the playoffs.
I’m also not sure the market realizes McCarron is back yet. This # could grow when people take notice closer to kickoff because on paper, he’s a big upgrade from Manny Wilkins. I already like San Antonio +2.5, but maybe hold off until you get a better number.
The total is tough. St. Louis has gone Over in seven of their last eight games, but we’ve also lived by death, taxes and San Antonio Unders this season. The Brahmas are on a six-game Under streak and haven’t scored more than 20 points since Week 5 vs. Arlington. I lean Under, but I am not 100% sure I’ll make the bet just yet.
UFL Best Bet: San Antonio (+2.5 but waiting until closer to kickoff when the public realizes McCarron is back. I anticipate a slight move.)
LEAN: Under 42.5
Arlington Renegades at DC Defenders
Sunday, 12 p.m. ET, ABC
ARL +2 +115 2-7 SU // 4-5 ATS // O/U 4-5
DC -2 -145 4-5 SU // 4-5 ATS // O/U 5-4
- Total: 46.5 (OV -115, UN -115)
Arlington should’ve beat DC their first meeting in Week 3. They had a 10-point lead with under two minutes and like a cookie in milk, they crumbled. Despite their record, they’re the better team. Their offense is one of the best in the UFL, and I expect Luis Perez and Co. to do work against a struggling DC defense.
For as great as Jordan Ta’Amu was a season ago, he hasn’t had anywhere near the OL or run support he had a year ago, and it shows. And for as many flaws as the Arlington defense has (and they have a lot), they’re great at turning over the football. Ta’Amu leads the league in interceptions with nine.
I’m pretty sure DC is only favored because they’re at home, and they’re one of the few teams in the league that does have environment. That’s not enough to convince me they can win.
Arlington +2, and if you wanted to play the ML, I wouldn’t blame you.
UFL Best Bet: Arlington +2
Houston Roughnecks at Memphis Showboats
Sunday, 7 p.m. ET, FOX
HOU -2 -140 1-8 SU // 5-4 ATS // O/U 4-5
MEM +2 +110 1-8 SU // 3-6 ATS // O/U 6-3
- Total: 44.5 (OV -115, UN -115)
Houston -2 is my favorite UFL best bet of the week. This team is not used to being in a favorite role, but that doesn’t scare me off.
This is actually the first game Houston has been favored in since being -1 Week 1 vs. Memphis, which oddly enough, is the only win on the Showboats schedule.
Despite also being 1-8, the Roughnecks are in a much better spot at this point in the season. Houston has covered in three straight games and would not go away against three of the top teams in the league (BIRM-MICH-SA). The avg margin of SU loss in those games was 4.5, despite the average point spread being +8.5.
Memphis, meanwhile, is the worst ATS team in the league and is 1-6 ATS in the last seven games since covering in the first two of the season. Roughnecks get revenge on Sunday!
UFL Best Bet: HOU -2 **Best Bet**
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