Philadelphia Eagles 2024 Predictions and Odds:
It says a lot about the current state of the Eagles that an 11-6 season and a wild-card loss in the postseason is disappointing. But this is a team with the talent required to win Super Bowls, and that will be the expectation this season.
In 2023, Philadelphia finished the season in second in Overall Team DVOA. Well, the Eagles slipped to 14th in that regard in 2024. That resulted in Philadelphia shaking up the coaching staff. Brian Johnson, the team’s offensive coordinator last year, was replaced with Kellen Moore. Philadelphia also brought in Vic Fangio, one of the most well-respected coaches in football, to fix the defense.
On top of all of that, the Eagles added star running back Saquon Barkley and a talented edge rusher in Bryce Huff. They also drafted two talented corners in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Offense
D’Andre Swift rushed for 1,049 yards with five touchdowns for the Eagles last season, and he also caught 39 passes for 214 yards and a score. Swift was not a problem for Philadelphia. This team was fourth in the league in Rush EPA per play last year. But replacing Swift with Saquon Barkley is undoubtedly going to make this offense more dangerous.
Barkley only rushed for 962 yards and six touchdowns in 14 games last season, but he did so in an anemic offense. Defenses were able to solely focus on slowing him down, which won’t be an option with Philadelphia. Barkley also caught 41 passes for 280 yards and four scores last season. All in all, he’s as good as any back in the league, and he’s going to open up this offense.
The passing game is what needs to be figured out in 2024. Last season, Philadelphia was just ninth in the league in Dropback EPA per play. That’s not good enough for a team with Jalen Hurts throwing to A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. But Hurts should be healthier. And there shouldn’t be as many head-scratching play calls. It really felt like Johnson’s decisions stalled a lot of drives.
Defense
Huff was a very impactful pass rusher for the Jets, and he should have a lot of room to work with. Opposing offenses won’t be able to pay him too much attention, as Philadelphia also has Jalen Carter, Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham. The Eagles are also taking fliers on Zack Baun and Devin White in the linebacking corps. Both players have talent and could resurrect their careers under the tutelage of Fangio.
All of that should amount to a strong presence up front, whether that means getting after the quarterback or doing a better job of stopping the run. Philadelphia struggled against the run last year.
Fangio’s presence should also help out the passing defense quite a bit. The Eagles were just 28th in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed last year. But this team has talent at corner. The Eagles still have Darius Slay and also added Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the draft. Both rookies should make immediate impacts. And Fangio’s defenses are usually good at preventing big plays.
Fangio’s defenses can lean a bit more conservative. But considering how good the Eagles are offensively, a conservative defense might be exactly what they need.
Outlook
Fangio has doubters around the league, but he has proven that he can stabilize defenses. If he can do that here, the Philadelphia Eagles should be a Super Bowl contender. This defense just needs to perform at a league-average level in order to give the offense a shot at winning games. I tend to think that they will. That said, at plus-money odds, Philadelphia’s Over is a bet I’m making.
Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Over 10.5 Wins
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