MLB Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (July 19)

Today’s MLB Betting Trends:

The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, July 19, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 183-186 record for +14.68 units (ROI 4.0%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+114 vs. NYM), DETROIT (+102 at TOR), LA ANGELS (-110 at OAK), HOUSTON (-105 at SEA)

Trend: Colorado is 5-21 (19.2%, -13.63 units) in their last 26 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -52.4%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+124 vs. SF)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-205 vs. CWS)

Trend: WSH is 2-9 (-7.10 units) as a night underdog between line range of -105 to +120 with Patrick Corbin in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+105 vs. CIN)

Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (6-28, -22.23 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+114 vs. NYM)

Trend: Sonny Gray is 10-2 (+8.90 units) as a road underdog between line range +105 to +115 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+105 at ATL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

>>VSiN MLB Betting Splits

To summarize the first half 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full ’23 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the ’24 first-half results:

Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-148 vs. AZ), DETROIT (+102 at TOR), SEATTLE (-125 vs. HOU)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-148 vs. SD), LA DODGERS (-142 vs. BOS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-148 vs. AZ)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 have gone just 292-256 (53.3%) for -82.74 units and an ROI of -15.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trends systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the ’24 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This is well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, MIAMI, ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO, NY YANKEES, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, LA ANGLES, HOUSTON, CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. At the break, the record of this angle is slightly negative at 69-28 for -3.3 units.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-205 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 205-242 record for -6.43 units (ROI -1.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+114 vs. NYM), DETROIT (+102 at TOR), LA ANGELS (-110 at OAK), HOUSTON (-105 at SEA)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 115-137 for -17.16 units. The three-game teams are 56-59 for +0.61 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE BOSTON (+114 at LAD)
3+ games – FADE PITTSBURGH (+136 vs. PHI)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 127-116 for -15.15 units (-6.2% ROI) through Sunday, 7/14.
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-110 at OAK)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1589-1485 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -185.45 units. This represents an ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OAKLAND (-110 vs. LAA), PITTSBURGH (+130 vs. PHI)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1481-1921 (43.5%) for -192.88 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-122 at WSH), HOUSTON (+105 at SEA), TAMPA BAY (+142 at NYY)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3214-2809 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -418.75 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, OAKLAND, COLORADO, PITTSBURGH, CHICAGO CUBS, ATLANTA, TORONTO

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 899-781 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +12.35 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-148 vs. SD), SEATTLE (-125 vs. HOU), TEXAS (+110 vs. BAL)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 455-392 (53.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +9.47 units, for an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-148 vs. SD)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 293-146 (66.7%) for +37.25 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-148 vs. AZ), OAKLAND (*if they become a favorite, -110 currently)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 169-150 run (+46.93 units, ROI: 14.7%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 at KC)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON +114 (+17 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -162 (+30 diff), CINCINNATI -122 (+30 diff), NY METS -135 (+18 diff), SEATTLE -115 (+17 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.8), BOS-LAD OVER 8.5 (+0.6), BAL-TEX OVER 7.5 (+0.6), HOU-SEA OVER 7 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) ARIZONA (49-48) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (47-51)
Trend: AZ not as good vs. LH starters (14-19, -10.24 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (+124 at CHC)

(953) PHILADELPHIA (62-34) at (954) PITTSBURGH (48-48)
Trend: PHI good at night (42-18, +14.04 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-162 at PIT)

(957) NEW YORK-NL (49-46) at (958) MIAMI (33-63)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (6-28, -22.23 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+114 vs. NYM)

(959) ST LOUIS (50-46) at (960) ATLANTA (53-42)
Trend: ATL trending Under at home (15-29 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(961) SAN FRANCISCO (47-50) at (962) COLORADO (34-63)
Trend: SF trending Over in divisional play (20-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 10.5)

(963) TAMPA BAY (48-48) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (58-40)
Trend: NYY good vs. RH starters (47-27, +11.34 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-170 vs TB)

(965) DETROIT (47-50) at (966) TORONTO (44-52)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs. AL Central/West (14-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(967) BALTIMORE (58-38) at (968) TEXAS (46-50)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (13-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(969) CHICAGO-AL (27-71) at (970) KANSAS CITY (52-45)
Trend: KC better at home (31-18, +11.67 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-205 vs CWS)

(973) HOUSTON (50-46) at (974) SEATTLE (52-46)
Trend: Under the total is 6-1 this season in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

(975) SAN DIEGO (50-49) at (976) CLEVELAND (58-37)
Trend: CLE good at home (30-11, +12.14 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-148 vs SD)

(977) BOSTON (53-42) at (978) LOS ANGELES-NL (56-41)
Trend: LAD slight Under against AL teams (8-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(955) CINCINNATI (47-50) at (956) WASHINGTON (44-53)
Trend: WSH is 2-9 (-7.10 units) as a night underdog between line range of -105 to +120 with Patrick Corbin in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+105 vs. CIN)

(957) NEW YORK-NL (49-46) at (958) MIAMI (33-63)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 3-6 (-4.49 units) against NL East opponents in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-130 at MIA)

Trend: MIA is 8-5 (+4.30 units) as shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+110 vs. NYM)

(959) ST LOUIS (50-46) at (960) ATLANTA (53-42)
Trend: Sonny Gray is 10-2 (+8.90 units) as a road underdog between line range +105 to +115 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+105 at ATL)

(963) TAMPA BAY (48-48) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (58-40)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 14-5 (+7.25 units) vs. AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (+142 at NYY)

Trend: Gerrit Cole is just 11-10 (-5.90 units) vs. Tampa Bay in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-170 vs TB)

(965) DETROIT (47-50) at (966) TORONTO (44-52)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 17-6 (+7.87 units) vs. AL Central opponents in the last five season.
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-122 vs DET)

Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends

Series #3: Arizona at Chicago Cubs, Fri 7/19-Sun 7/21
Trend: Underdogs are 12-4 (75%, +9.64 units) in the last 16 of the head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 60.3%.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (+124 at CHC)

Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Fri 7/19-Sun 7/21
Trend: Colorado is 5-21 (19.2%, -13.63 units) in their last 26 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -52.4%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+124 vs. SF)

Series #26: Baltimore at Texas, Fri 7/19-Sun 7/21
Trend: Underdogs (and pick ’ems) are 19-7 (73.1%, +14.30 units) in the last 26 games between TEX and BAL
– The ROI on this trend is 55%
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+110 vs BAL)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday 7/22)

The post MLB Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (July 19) appeared first on VSiN.