The Olympic Games will be providing us with yet another major-like tennis tournament in Paris. After the Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon and US Open, this tournament is the one that the top players in the world are desperate to win. A Masters 1000 title is definitely pretty close, but there’s something about winning a medal for your country that can’t be topped. Of course, we have already seen some key withdrawals on the men’s and women’s sides. Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune are both out of this tournament, and Andy Murray also happened to back out of singles. On top of that, it seems like Rafael Nadal is no guarantee to play after having tweaked his hamstring. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are the notable absences. But these two 64-player fields are still absolutely loaded, as we’ll see stars like Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff in action. That’s more than enough for this to be a fun week of tennis, and I’ll be handicapping it like I do any big event.
Keep reading for some of my quick thoughts on the draws, a few futures that I’m playing and then my tennis predictions and best bets for Round 1. I’ll be writing up daily best bets throughout this tournament, while also adding some other picks to the Pro Picks page. There’s no shortage of tennis this week and I’m looking to find some value wherever I can.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 552-547 (+40.82 units)
Paris Olympics Tennis – Men’s Draw Analysis
Quarter 1: A potential second-round meeting between Djokovic and Nadal would be tremendous. This year’s Olympic Games can use a blockbuster matchup like that. However, Nadal does have a tough opening-round meeting with Marton Fucsovics. There’s no guarantee he wins that, even if he does end up playing through this new hamstring injury. The rest of the draw is headlined by Matteo Arnaldi, Arthur Fils and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Arnaldi and Fils will battle in the first round, but both can make runs here. And Tsitsipas is a very dangerous clay-court player. He’s fully capable of winning this quarter if Djokovic doesn’t look sharper than he did at Wimbledon.
Quarter 2: Alexander Zverev’s quarter looks extremely manageable. He’ll face Jaume Munar in the first round, the winner of Tomas Machac and Zhizhen Zhang in Round 2, and then he’s likely looking at a meeting with Nicolas Jarry after that. I don’t see him losing to any of those players, and I also think he’d take care of whoever comes out of the other portion of the quarter. That includes Lorenzo Musetti, Gael Monfils, Jack Draper and Taylor Fritz. Of course, Fritz beat Zverev at Wimbledon. But that was on grass. Zverev is a far superior player on clay.
Quarter 3: The third quarter in Paris feels like Casper Ruud’s to lose. The two-time French Open runner-up could get tested by Francisco Cerundolo or Ugo Humbert in his third match, but I’d like his chances to get by there. He’d then be looking at a meeting with Felix Auger-Aliassime or Daniil Medvedev after that. Both of those matches are extremely winnable for Ruud. He lost to Auger-Aliassime on clay earlier in the year, but that was in the high altitude of Madrid. These conditions suit Ruud a lot better.
Quarter 4: Alcaraz is going to like his draw quite a bit. The back-to-back Grand Slam champion likely won’t be challenged until he sees Alex De Minaur or Tommy Paul in the semifinals. And neither one of those opponents will scare him at this venue. Alcaraz just won a major at Roland Garros and finally looks like he’s ready to take the King of Clay baton from Nadal.
Paris Olympics Tennis – Women’s Draw Analysis
Quarter 1: Swiatek is going to have to play Irina-Camelia Begu, a good clay-court player, in Round 1. She also faces the winner of Nadia Podoroska and Diane Parry in Round 2. Parry could be a tricky opponent. Then, Swiatek is looking at either Linda Noskova or Diana Shnaider in her third match. Those are two really tough opponents. And if that’s not enough, how about Jelena Ostapenko or Daneille Collins after that? Ostapenko is 4-0 against Swiatek in her career. Overall, it’s a nightmare of a draw for Swiatek. But this is the Queen of Clay we’re talking about.
Quarter 2: With no Rybakina in the draw, this part of the bracket is wide open. I’d keep a pretty close eye on Karolina Muchova here. The 2023 French Open runner-up found her game in Palermo last week, so she could be ready to rock here. However, I can also see this being another deep run for Emma Navarro. She’s such a solid all-court player and her draw isn’t terrible. It’ll also be interesting to see what happens with Caroline Garcia. She hasn’t had a good season but steps into Rybakina’s draw and should be eager to perform at a high level in front of a French crowd.
Quarter 3: This is another quarter that can go a ton of different ways. Jasmine Paolini is the top-seeded player here, but she’s going to face talented players every step of the way. I wouldn’t be surprised if the back-to-back Grand Slam runner-up gets bounced somewhat early. The other interesting players in this quarter are Jessica Pegula, Barbora Krejcikova and Mirra Andreeva. I tend to think that Krejcikova is about to play some consistent high-level tennis in singles again. Her confidence is fully back after having won Wimbledon, and I don’t think a deep run can be ruled out here. She’s a former French Open champion and her tricky style of play makes her a terror to face on clay.
Quarter 4: Gauff is second on the odds board to win this tournament. I’m down on her overall on-court ability, as her forehand is a mess. However, the slow courts in Paris do help make up for that by giving her time to set her feet — and the ability to play with some more shape. If she can get by Ajla Tomljanovic in the first round, there’s not much preventing Gauff from reaching the semifinals. However, Maria Sakkari, Clara Burel and Marta Kostyuk are all talented players that can potentially break through and come out of this quarter. Even Yulia Putintseva needs to be taken seriously.
Paris Olympics Tennis Futures
Iga Swiatek To Win Gold (-175 – 1.5 units): Swiatek has a really tough draw. She might have to go through Noskova or a red-hot Shnaider in Round 3, and a meeting with Ostapenko in the quarterfinals would be tough. Ostapenko has dominated Swiatek in the past. But Swiatek is still 35-2 at Roland Garros and her peak clay-court level is borderline untouchable. So, even if the Pole does have some difficult matches along the way, I don’t see any reason not to back her to win this tournament. This price isn’t different from what you have to pay to back Swiatek at the French Open, but you don’t have to worry about Sabalenka or Rybakina here. It’s a watered-down field on the women’s side and she should take advantage in her favorite venue. I also like that her early Wimbledon exit allowed her to start focusing on this tournament pretty quickly.
Alexander Zverev To Win Gold (+750): Zverev is looking to win gold in back-to-back Olympics, which will definitely be a bit of a challenge. But he’s going to be feeling really good about his draw. Zverev is also 20-5 on clay over the last 52 weeks and has shown that his best stuff on the dirt is as good as it gets. He even went toe to toe with Alcaraz in the French Open final, and he might have won that match if not for an egregious call that went against him late in that battle. But overall, Zverev is just a fantastic best-of-three competitor, which is why he has racked up six Masters 1000 titles. And four of those trophies were won on clay. He has also shown up in a big way at the year-end ATP Finals. All in all, Zverev’s talent is right on par with some of the top-tier players in this sport, but the best-of-three nature of this event should mean that he won’t get in his own way mentally.
Casper Ruud To Win Gold (16-1 – 0.5 units): I mentioned it earlier but I really like Ruud’s draw. I know he just suffered a disgusting loss to Thiago Monteiro in Bastad, but I think we’ll see a different intensity out of Ruud in Paris. This is one of the most successful clay-court players in the men’s game, and he’s smack in the middle of his prime. Also, at this long of a number, you might be able to start hedging once he gets to the semifinals.
Paris Olympics Tennis – Round 1 Best Bets
Benjamin Hassan vs. Christopher Eubanks
This is a pretty straightforward play for me. Hassan obviously isn’t a well known player, but Eubanks is 0-5 on clay over the last 52 weeks. The American is also just 1-7 on the dirt in his career. Eubanks’ massive serve is just a little easier to pick up on a slow-bouncing surface, and he’s one of the weakest baseline players on the ATP Tour. So, this is a great opportunity for Hassan to earn one of the biggest wins of his career. Hassan hasn’t been winning matches at an impressive clip lately, but he has at least played six clay-court matches in a row. He’ll be ready to go on the dirt, while Eubanks’ last nine matches have been played on grass.
Bet: Hassan ML (+105)
Sumit Nagal vs. Corentin Moutet
The last time we saw Moutet at Roland Garros, the Frenchman was putting a legitimate scare into Sinner after having already won his previous three matches. Moutet simply loves playing in front of his home crowd and I’d be shocked if he comes up short against Nagal. I know that Nagal is a decent clay-court player, but Moutet is capable of coming up with flashes of brilliance on these courts. And I can also just see him getting under Nagal’s skin, as Moutet has the ability to throw opponents off with his unique style. And the crowd is going to be rowdy in urging him on, which won’t make for a pleasant atmosphere for Nagal.
Bet: Moutet ML (-133 – 2 units)
Alexei Popyrin vs. Nicolas Jarry
The last few months have been rough on Jarry, but he’s still a player that can really get hot on clay. Jarry can absolutely bomb first serves, but he also has a good all-around game for a bigger player. And overall, that makes it hard not to like him to handle his business against Popyrin. I like Popyrin’s ability to rack up easy holds, and he’s definitely one of the most dangerous servers on tour. But Jarry is just a better player in every other aspect of the game, and he’s a lot more comfortable on the dirt. Jarry also tends to get a good amount of crowd support wherever he goes, so I can see him having a little extra adrenaline here.
Bet: Jarry ML (-120 – 1.5 units)
Clara Burel vs. Katerina Siniakova
It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of Siniakova’s game. I actually threw a dart on her to reach the Wimbledon final, which ended up looking very dumb. But I really think this price is way off. Siniakova’s best surface is grass and I don’t see why she’s a massive favorite over a French player. Burel is going to have the crowd firmly in her corner here, and I’m not sure there’s a big difference between these two in the talent department. Burel is also a very good mover and plays with a good deal of variety, which is why I like her on clay. All in all, this number doesn’t sit right with me and I’m definitely taking a shot on it.
Bet: Burel ML (+155)
Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Alex De Minaur
I’m a little skeptical about how De Minaur will look after having injured himself at Wimbledon. If he’s any bit short of 100% health, he won’t be able to grind from the baseline the way he normally does. This is also a tough matchup for the Australian. Struff is a very good clay-court performer, as his booming serve is dangerous on any court. However, the clay makes him a little better as a returner, and he’s also very good at the net. His straightforward style of play is an asset on this surface. I also thought De Minaur was fortunate to beat Struff at the French Open. The German was rolling before a rain delay took them off the court. When they came back out, he looked flat and De Minaur steamrolled him. That isn’t likely to happen again.
Bet: Struff ML (-125 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
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