It feels a little weird to be getting a second-round matchup between legends like Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, but that’s exactly what we’ll be treated to at the Paris Olympics on Monday, July 29th. Unfortunately, Father Time is coming for both of these players, but he has a bigger bone to pick with the 38-year-old Nadal. Many believe this will be the final time that the Spaniard will compete at singles at Roland Garros, where he has won 14 French Open titles. Nadal has tried to downplay any talk of this being “the last dance” between him and Djokovic, as he insists that he’d be open to playing in 2025 if his health allows it. However, it certainly feels like this could be the last matchup between these longtime rivals. With that in mind, the 60th career head-to-head battle between these two should be fun to watch, even if Djokovic is a heavy betting favorite. And while these odds are certainly lopsided, this is still worthy of an in-depth breakdown. So, keep reading for our Nadal vs. Djokovic analysis, predictions and best bets.
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2024 Record: 563-554 (+44.30 units)
Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic Odds
Moneyline: Djokovic -700, Nadal +475
Spread: Djokovic -4.5 Games (-149), Nadal +4.5 Games (+105)
Total: Over 20.5 Games (-111), Under 20.5 Games (-128)
How To Watch Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic
Where: Court Philippe-Chatrier at Roland Garros Stadium in Paris, France
When: Monday, July 29th
Channel: NBC/Peacock
Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic Predictions
Only one year separates Nadal and Djokovic, but you wouldn’t know it based on looking at them — or their results over the last few years. Nadal’s body hasn’t held up nearly as well as Djokovic’s, which is why the Serbian is a massive favorite here. When these two met at Roland Garros in the quarterfinals of the 2022 French Open, Djokovic was only a -250 favorite. Of course, Nadal ended up winning that match 6-2, 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 (4) and going on to claim his 14th French Open title. But the Spaniard has continued to deteriorate since then, while Djokovic remains a top-five player in the world. The past few weeks have encapsulated that rather perfectly.
Djokovic went under the knife for meniscus surgery in early June, but he was hardly bothered by it. Just a few weeks later, the Serbian reached the Wimbledon final. Meanwhile, Nadal took the grass-court season off to focus on his Olympics preparation. That looked like it was going to pay off, as the Spaniard made a clay-court final in Bastad a little over a week ago. But as that tournament went on, Nadal got worse and worse. His Performance Rating of 8.1 (from TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations) in his opening-round match against Leo Borg was quite strong. Had Nadal continued to play like that, he might have had a real shot at winning this event. But that number dipped as he played more matches, even though he continued to find ways to win. The Spaniard also picked up a hamstring injury that left his status for the Olympic Games in doubt. Djokovic continues to shrug things off, but Nadal hasn’t been able to do the same. Every time Nadal has a little momentum, something gets in the way.
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Looking at this match, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Nadal hangs around. The 38-year-old barely beat Marton Fucsovics in his opening-round match, and his serve has been extremely worrisome lately. Nadal’s hold percentage is down at 77.0% since the start of the 2024 season. In his prime, Nadal was in the mid to high 80’s there. Unless he has an out-of-body serving experience against Djokovic, this could get ugly. Djokovic is one of the best returners in the history of the sport.
Nadal’s baseline game isn’t where it needs to be either. The Spaniard is no longer capable of simply grinding opponents down and ending rallies with his vicious topspin forehand. Instead, he looks to rip shots earlier in rallies to preserve his legs. The problem with that is that Nadal has been spraying more unforced errors than usual. That’s not going to cut it against Djokovic, who will likely go into “lockdown mode” and focus on finding the court as much as possible. If he keeps rallies alive long enough, this version of Nadal will eventually make mistakes.
Overall, this just feels like a match that could get out of hand. It wouldn’t shock me if Nadal finds a way to win a set, but that’d likely be 7-5 or 7-6. What would shock me is if Djokovic doesn’t win at least one lopsided set. Djokovic is nowhere near the peak of his powers either, but he was stronger in Wimbledon than he was at any point in the 2024 season. He’s capable of hitting his spots as a server and handling his business in racking up holds. And I think there will be at least one set in this match in which he’ll pounce all over Nadal’s serve. That’s why I’d suggest laying the games with Djokovic, who is 30-29 in 59 career meetings with Nadal and has a chance to stamp a winning record against his rival once and for all.
I also don’t hate the fact that Nadal will have the whole crowd pulling for him in this one. Djokovic plays his best tennis when he finds reasons to get mad at the fans. He won’t have to look very hard for those here.
Bet: Djokovic -4.5 Games (-149)
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