Colonial Downs Picks: Arlington Million 2024 Date, Entries, Horses, Odds, and Predictions

Arlington Million 2024:

This week features more than a dozen stakes races around the country, but the one with the biggest purse will be at Colonial Downs in Virginia. The Arlington Million is no longer in the Chicago area, but is still one of the top turf races of the year. It will take place on Sunday, August 11 after the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby move off the East Coast and the turf has a chance to dry out a little.

This will be the second year at Colonial Downs after Churchill Downs closed down Arlington Park in 2022. The name lives on, but the changes are definitely noteworthy, as the 2022 race was held at Churchill Downs in Kentucky and the 2023 race was in Virginia. The winner, Set Piece, became the only 7-year-old ever to win the race.

Only six horses are in this year’s field, making it the smallest in the race’s history, but that means a 1-in-6 shot for the jockeys and trainers to take down a huge prize and also a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Here are the Arlington Million entries, odds, jockeys, and trainers:

The Irish-bred Nations Pride brings over $2.8 million in earnings into this race and is the favorite for trainer Charles Appleby. The Godolphin 5-year-old is the short shot at 1 ¼ miles in Race 11 for Sunday’s program. Highland Chief is another European horse, with the other four all coming out of Kentucky.

Here are some notes on the horses:

1. Integration (5-2; McGaughey/Carmouche): Shug McGaughey has a real contender here in Integration, the 4-year-old colt out of Quality Road and Harmonize. He’s only been raced seven times, but has four wins to show for it, including a Colonial Downs romp last month in the Million Preview Stakes. The win cracked a three-race losing streak, with all three defeats to European horses.

That win also came in a light field of three as a very, very big favorite. This is a G1 race and Integration is fifth, third, and fourth in those in his career. The turf background comes from Harmonize, who won the Del Mar Oaks and four other stakes races in her career.

2. Ancient Rome (3-1; Hills/Spencer): This Kentucky-born 5-year-old has hit the board 12 times in 19 starts, including six victories. Even though Ancient Rome was born in the States, he has only run once on U.S. soil, a win in the G3 Mint Millions Stakes at Kentucky Downs. The son of War Front and Gagnoa only has two runs this year, a 12th in the Wolferton Stakes and a second in the G2 Anne Cowley Memorial Summer Mile Stakes, both at Ascot.

Ancient Rome was narrowly better than Stitched in the Mint Millions and took a longer trip to get there coming from the middle of the track. That was a mile. Does he have enough for the extra quarter here as a shipper who last ran less than a month ago in the UK?

3. Sugoi (8-1; Maker/Leparoux): Late bloomer Sugoi is a very interesting runner in this year’s Arlington Million. He’s 10-7-2 over 28 starts, but four of those five wins have come this year in five starts. For good measure, the 7-year-old from Karakontie and Timeless Spirit was second in the race he didn’t win. He set a career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 114 last time out in that second-place finish at Churchill in the Chorleywood Overnight Stakes.

Sugoi has more than doubled his career earnings this year with nearly $320,000 in prize money. Unfortunately, the recent workouts have been pedestrian as he comes in on nearly a two-month layoff. He’s also had a win on dirt and two on the synthetic surface this year. But, his last two runs have been on dirt going 1 ½ and 1 ⅜ miles, so the distance is not a problem here. If you’re looking for a price, Sugoi looks like the best option.

4. Nations Pride (8-5; Appleby/Buick): Nations Pride has had wins just about everywhere, but is looking for his first U.S. win since September 2022. His only 2024 starts have come in the U.S., with a third at Aqueduct in the Man O’ War Stakes and a second in the Manhattan Stakes at Saratoga. Rider William Buick just won with Measured Time over Nations Pride with jockey Frankie Dettori in the mount.

Both horses are trained by Appleby, so it makes sense that he goes to Buick, who really picks his spots to ride. Buick also just won for Appleby with Cinderella’s Dream in the Saratoga Oaks this past week. Everything seems to be falling in line with the strong connections here.

5. Highland Chief (12-1; Motion/Velazquez): The second entry for Mrs. Fitriani Hay is Highland Chief, the Irish-born 7-year-old by way of Gleneagles and Pink Symphony. He’s building up nicely after finishing fifth, fourth, and then second in the Prince George’s County Stakes last time out. This is a horse that didn’t run from November 2022 to April 2024 and was really building up nicely at the end of that year.

Highland Chief won the 2022 G1 Man O’ War Stakes and the G3 Sycamore before the extended layoff. He finished 12th in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, but then took all of 2023 off. He was the favorite in the Prince George’s County Stakes, so finishing second was a disappointment, but there is a chance this horse is sitting on a big run at a big price.

6. Talk of the Nation (6-1; Pletcher/Ortiz): The second entry sired by Quality Road in this field is the Todd Pletcher 4-year-old stepping up in distance in a big way. He hasn’t run at over a mile in eight races, all of them stakes showings. He is a four-time winner and five-time runner-up, but the distance is the big question mark here.

Quality Road was a distance dirt horse and dam She’s Not Here won the Yellow Ribbon Handicap twice on turf at more than a mile. Grandfather Street Cry won the 2002 Stephen Foster and also the Dubai World Cup at distance. It’s in the bloodline, but will it be in the results?

Arlington Million Picks

There are some tantalizing prices here in a field of six with a couple long shots that look fairly interesting in Sugoi and Talk of the Nation. Integration also comes off as interesting with a good turf trainer in Shug McGaughey and three wins on the turf here at Colonial Downs.

Ultimately, though, I like Nations Pride. Buick making the choice to ride here for Appleby speaks volumes and the horse has been stateside for several months now, so this isn’t a shipping situation, at least not a long one. His speed figures are the best in the field and the distance isn’t a question for him.

I will take a smaller shot on Talk of the Nation as well, as distance runs in the bloodline and he might surprise going the extra quarter.

Using a hypothetical $40 bankroll:

$15 Win ($15)

4 Nations Pride

$5 Win ($5)

6 Talk of the Nation

$1 Trifecta Part-Wheel ($12)

4,6 / 1,3,4,6 / 1,3,4,6

$4 Exacta Box ($8)

4/6

The post Colonial Downs Picks: Arlington Million 2024 Date, Entries, Horses, Odds, and Predictions appeared first on VSiN.