UFC Best Bets:
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess offers his UFC Fight Night best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
UFC BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 3-6 (-0.5 units, -5.26%)
Article History: 72-91 (-5.27 Units, -2.94% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 7-6 (53.8%)
140-107 (56.68%)
Marcin “Tybur” Tybura (+124) vs Serghei “Polar Bear” Spivac (-148)
Over 3.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 3.5 Rounds (-105)
Marcin Tybura is the rare UFC fighter who has looked much better in the latter half of his career than the first. He is a heavyweight, and as we know, this division allows for late-career resurgence more often than the lighter classes. He is eating too in his last 10 UFC fights after starting his career 4-5 in the octagon. His game isn’t too flashy; he strikes well and has good power. His takedown defense is solid, and once he is taken down, he’s not completely lost. He can also land takedowns to ground opponents. Four and half years ago, he fought a young Serghei Spivac and won via decision. He landed 43 significant strikes and two takedowns to get the victory on the judges’ scorecards.
Five of Tybura’s twelve UFC victories have come inside the distance. He is by no means an exciting fighter, and his best highlight moments come from facing opposition who is totally out of their depth. Despite not being flashy, he is very effective. I do not expect him to leave himself open to anything that will end this fight. Tybura has never been submitted in the Octagon, but he has been knocked out four times. However, the profiles of those fighters are much different than what he will be facing in this main event. Knocking out Tybura takes a ton of speed and power, two things that are not defining characteristics of Spivac’s striking.
Serghei Spivac will enter the Octagon for the 12th time at only 29 years old. He is 7-4 in the UFC with five finishes and two decision wins. He has lost one decision (versus Tybura) and has been knocked out three times. However, the guys who have finished Spivac are much faster and more powerful than Tybura. Spivac’s raw strength and wrestling power is undeniable. He averages over four and a half takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. That is a lot of lifting and cardio when your opponents are usually around 260 pounds. He is not afraid to throw hands and has a decent significant strikes landed per minute at 3.54, but it is a deficit as he absorbs 3.79 per minute. Additionally, his takedown accuracy is 64%, which may not be good enough versus a veteran like Tybura who still maintains a 79% takedown defense rate. The last time these guys fought, Tybura’s takedown defense held up, and Spivac could not get his opponent to the ground.
This fight hung around a pick ’em until earlier this week when Spivac money started to come in. On Thursday, Spivac was as high as a -170 favorite at DraftKings. I understand why Spivac has taken money; he’s nine years younger and has a unique style for this division in that he spams takedowns like someone much smaller than heavyweight. But I still do not understand why people are ready to dance on Tybura’s grave. He is a true professional and has lasted this long for a reason. Lastly, this is the weight class where guys can peak later than any other; we have seen champions in their 40s and guys making runs deep into their 30s, and I have not seen Tybura’s skills diminish yet.
FIGHT WINNER: Marcin Tybura
UFC BEST BET: Marcin Tybura (+124) vs Spivac, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.24
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Damon “The Leech” Jackson (+164) vs Chepe “Machine Gun” Mariscal (-198)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+100)
Damon Jackson is easy to root for because he goes full effort until the final bell. He always thinks he has a shot to land that fight-ending submission. That said, he’s a bit of a one-note fighter, and when fights are on the feet for prolonged periods of time, he gets exposed. He has been the underdog in his last three fights, losing two, but he did win his last time out versus Alexander Hernandez. That split decision victory showed fight fans exactly what Damon Jackson is about, competing until the last minute if you don’t find a way to get the finish. Overall, he has a 6-4-1 record in the UFC with one no contest. He has one victory via knockout and two via submission. He has been submitted one time and been knocked out twice. Jackson is a guy who does not have the greatest wrestling metrics, considering he is mostly a grappler. It shows a willingness to go to the ground, whether it’s on his terms or his opponents because he believes he can fight off of his back, his side, and his butt. If the fight is on the ground, he believes he has a chance.
Chepe Mariscal got his UFC start three fights ago as a late replacement opponent for Trevor Peek. He closed as a slight underdog and won that fight decisively via decision. He was a bigger underdog in his subsequent UFC fights but is still undefeated in the organization. If Damon Jackson wins, ugly Chepe Mariscal wins disgustingly. but the ability to find a way to win in a fight where he’s at a physical disadvantage, experience disadvantage, height disadvantage, statistical disadvantage, etc. cannot be overlooked. His pedigree comes from his experience fighting in lower-tier organizations. Five of the six losses he suffered before making it to the UFC were versus opponents who ended up in the octagon at some point in their careers. Yes, he only has three UFC fights, but he has the experience of someone who has been in the organization for nearly a decade. Compared to his opponent, he is a more accurate striker and lands more volume. Additionally, he has never been submitted and his two knockout losses were to Steve Garcia and Joanderson Brito—more powerful strikers than Jackson.
It’s cool that two under-the-radar professional mixed martial artists like Mariscal and Jackson are getting a shot at a co-main event. However, I think that this position on the card is more about the weakness of the show than the fact that these guys are going to put out an eye-popping performance in the cage. That said, it could be tight, but in the end, I believe Mariscal’s hands and veteran savvy will be too much for Damon Jackson to contend with.
FIGHT WINNER: Chepe Mariscal
UFC BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Danny “LeftHand2God” Barlow (-380) vs Nikolay Veretennikov (+300)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-135)
Danny Barlow is an exciting prospect with an 8-0 record and 75% finish rate. He won in Contender Series via first-round knockout and his UFC debut via third-round knockout. He has landed 8.8 significant strikes per minute which is an unsustainable number. However, he is fighting Nikolay Veretennikov, who has bounced around lower leagues for most of his mixed martial arts career. Additionally, Barlow is an outlier because he has a 79-inch reach, which is the top end of what you generally will see in the 170-pound welterweight division. Despite winning his last fight via KO, some prognosticators were a bit disappointed that it took until the third round, considering he was outstriking his opponent nearly three to one. Dana White wants this fight to be seen as it is third from the top of this card and Danny Barlow has an exciting style that the UFC can get behind. He missed weight by 0.3 pounds, and if he doesn’t show out in this marquee position on the card, he could be pushed to the back of the line.
Nikolay Veretennikov is a mixed martial arts veteran with a 12-4 record that was amassed at a variety of lower-level organizations. He started his mixed martial arts career with a 1-3 record and has since gone 11-1. The one loss he sustained since his slow start was in Contender Series three years ago versus Michael Morales. He made it to a decision in that fight, which is commendable considering Morales is 16-0 as a professional and now 4-0 in the UFC. Ten of Veretennikov’s professional wins have come inside the distance, giving him a finish rate of 83%. Nine of those wins were via knockout, and he is not afraid to trade strikes. On the regional scene, he did not see anyone too imposing, but he did knock out Charlie Ontiveros in Fury FC back in 2016, and Ontiveros, for some reason, did make it onto the UFC roster at one point. If you put his resume side by side with Barlow’s, you may be surprised to see that he probably has seen a greater strength of schedule overall, considering he has seen twice as many opponents.
Barlow is the exact opposite of the type of fighter that I like to bet on. He has few professional fights and a high finish rate versus bad competition. On the other hand, Veretennikov is a veteran who has been waiting for this opportunity for a long time. Additionally, Veretennikov’s gym is the very legit Kings MMA out of Huntington Beach and is full of former and current high-level UFC athletes. I expect both fighters to be feeling pressure to knock their opponent’s head off, so I much prefer taking this fight to be finished early than choosing a side. The price on Barlow is just too high and Veretennikov still needs to answer many questions regarding his true ceiling as a mixed martial artist.
FIGHT WINNER: Danny Barlow
UFC BEST BET: Barlow/Veretennikov UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-135), Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
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Chris “El Guapo” Gutierrez (-550) vs Quang “Bang” Le (+410)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+154)
Chris Gutierrez is a damn good fighter. In the UFC, he is 8-3-1, with all three of those losses coming to very experienced and dangerous opponents. He is a great kickboxer who lands devastating leg kicks to control distance, and he has solid takedown defense. It is hard to go 12 fights in the UFC and still have a 58% striking accuracy number while having one of the division’s best striking defense rates at 63%. He is the more technical striker every time he steps into the octagon. His losses have come when he faces an opponent who makes things dirty and has overwhelming striking power. The two most recent opponents to beat Gutierrez are Pedro Munoz and Song Yadong. Both opponents landed big strikes early and made Gutierrez fight off the back foot. They were not afraid of his volume strikes because they knew that it was unlikely he’d be able to put them down.
Quang Le has an interesting resume. He’s 8-0 overall and 7-0 in LFA. Despite being undefeated and having seven LFA fights, he has never fought for a belt in that UFC feeder organization. Le got called up to the big show after Javad Basharat had to withdraw from his scheduled fight with Gutierrez, and Le was supposed to fight in Contender Series next month. Now, he is facing an opponent ranked in the top ten not long ago. There are tons of guys who have transitioned from the LFA and put together excellent UFC careers, including Chirs Gutierrez, but the fact that Le was never really the main event in his LFA run raises my eyebrows. When watching Le, you can tell he has power, but he usually tries to land one big shot instead of landing combinations in flow. And that is not a good recipe for beating a veteran like Chris Gutierrez unless he lands a decisive headshot early.
FIGHT WINNER: Chris Gutierrez
UFC BEST BET: Gutierrez OVER 70.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
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Yana “Foxy” Santos (-155) vs Chelsea Chandler (+130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-360) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+260)
Yana Santos needs a win in a major way; she’s 0-3 in her last three fights and just 2-4 in her last six. Overall, she’s 4-5 in the UFC and a true veteran of the organization; however, she is relegated to a gatekeeper role at this point in her career. Seven of her nine UFC fights have gone the distance, and she has never won before the final bell in the octagon. On paper, she’s a capable striker with good offensive and very average defensive metrics, but she is far from an efficient grappler.
Chelsea Chandler has missed weight for the second consecutive fight. This time, it was a major mess up as she came in five pounds over the women’s bantamweight limit of 136. Last time out, she used her extra weight to her advantage as she grinded out a decision versus Josiane Nunes, and I have a feeling that will be the plan again here. Her striking is below average and her takedown accuracy is only slightly better. That said, if she can muck this fight up and keep it from being a pure technical striking match, she has a real shot to wear Santos out in the clinch and on the ground.
FIGHT WINNER: Chelsea Chandler
UFC BEST BET: Pass
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Charalampos “Ferocious” Grigoriou (-258) vs Toshiomi “Silent Finisher” Kazama (+210)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+110)
Last time Grigoriou entered the cage, he had an extremely disappointing performance versus Chad Anheliger. In that fight, he was a -165 favorite but lost a unanimous decision. It’s a shame because he was starting to build some hype as he was on a three-fight finish streak, including a first-round knockout in the Contender Series before he officially joined the UFC roster. In that fight, he landed four takedowns but was a complete mess on his feet, and he only landed 21 strikes in 15 minutes. When you look at his UFC stats with his Contender Series fight factored in he’s landing just 2.13 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.56.
Somehow, Kazama has had a worse run in the UFC than his opponent. Kazama advanced from Road to UFC via a technicality and has been finished in the first round in his first two trips to the octagon. He seeks to land takedowns, but thus far in his career under the bright lights, he has not been that successful, only landing 13% of his attempts in fights where official UFC stats were tracked. I do not think Grigoriou is a very good fighter. I don’t think Kazama is worthy of being on the roster. I cannot find a bettable angle in this low-level contest.
FIGHT WINNER: Charalampos Grigoriou
UFC BEST BET: PASS
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Karol Rosa (-218) vs Pannie “Banzai” Kianzad (+180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-540) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+360)
Karol Rosa has traded wins and losses in her last six fights. She is coming off of a loss as an underdog to Irene Aldana. Rosa is a volume striker, landing 6.34 significant strikes per minute throughout her nine trips to the octagon. She also is capable of mixing in the takedown but that is not generally her preferred path to victory. Every time she has stepped into the cage, the fight has gone to the final bell because she knows how to protect herself. She does not possess overwhelming power or a strong submission game.
Pannie Kianzad is the definition of a roster filler in the UFC. She has 10 fights in the organization and a 5-5 record. She is 1-3 in her last four trips to the octagon, dating back to September 2021. She is a capable striker, and she has the bare minimum for what I would consider an okay striking defense rate of 53%. The problem is that it seems like she doesn’t know what it takes to win fights right now, she has been in some competitive contests but when crunch time has come around she has crumbled as of late. Additionally, she isn’t much of a grappler, so when things are not going her way on the feet, she does not have a great option for changing the complexion of the fight.
FIGHT WINNER; Karol Rosa
UFC BEST BET: Karol Rosa/Chepe Mariscal Parlay (+119), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.19
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Karl Williams (-192) vs Jhonata Diniz (+160)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-120)
Karl Williams is the type of fighter who gives wrestlers a bad name. He is very much a great wrestler, but the problem is that he is a terrible finisher once he gets a dominant position on the ground. He is 3-0 in the UFC with three unanimous decisions versus three opponents finished by lesser opponents in their careers. He also won his Contender Series fight via unanimous decision. Generally, I look at takedowns for 15 minutes or takedowns per round in the UFC, but for Williams, I can just say he’s landed 4.75 takedowns per fight because all of his fights have gone the full distance. As a dominant wrestler, he hardly ever gets hit, only receiving 1.7 significant strikes per minute in the cage while landing a paltry 2.87. That said, it’s hard to fault a guy for fighting a safe style that yields undeniable results. His one pro loss happened via triangle early in his career. Since then, he has learned not to put himself in dangerous BJJ positions.
Jhonata Diniz is a very gifted striker with fast hands for a heavyweight. He won via knockout in Contenders Series, and he won via knockout in his UFC debut. His striking acumen comes from his experience as a professional kickboxer. As a professional mixed martial artist, he has a 7-0 record with seven knockouts, six of which have come in the first round. In his last fight, Austen Lane took him down. Austen Lane is a great athlete, but he is not a good technical wrestler. If Lane can get the fight to the ground versus Diniz, then there could be some big issues for the prospect in this fight. The only issue is that because Williams is not a finisher that means there will be at least three chances for Diniz to land a devastating blow on the feet in this fight. and I believe Diniz will be the best Striker that Williams will have faced in the UFC.
FIGHT WINNER: Karl Williams
UFC BEST BET: Karl Williams via Decision (+140), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
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Jarno Errens (+340) vs Youssef “The Moroccan Devil” Zalal (-440)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)
Jarno Errens got his UFC start with a late-notice fight against William Gomis. He lost that fight and his next fight, but he did find a victory via decision against Steven Nguyen in March of this year. Prior to the UFC, he fought in mostly unknown organizations and amassed a 13-3-1 record. He does have a fun stand-up style and solid defensive numbers. However, if the fight goes to the ground, which it probably will, he is a fish out of water.
Youssef Zalal is the redemption story of 2024. This is his second stint in the UFC after he was shown the boot after losing three in a row versus three extremely tough opponents, including going to a decision versus current featherweight champion Ilia Topuria. He fought Billy Quarantillo earlier this year in his return bout and won via submission. Zalal does not have the most impressive striking metrics because he spends a lot of time on the ground or in the clinch. He lands 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage and attempts 1.3 submissions in the same time span. This fight will be an uphill battle for Errens because Zalal is the more accurate striker. Despite Errens having good striking defense numbers, Zalal is slightly better in that regard versus much better competition. I alluded to the ground game being a major hole in Errens’ game. I expect Zalal to try to exploit that early and often.
FIGHT WINNER: Youssef Zala
UFC BEST BET: Pass
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Stephanie “Rondinha” Luciano(-155) vs Talita “Problem Child” Alencar (+130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+220)
Stephanie Luciano is making her octagon debut after fighting to a draw in Contender Series last year. What makes this fight interesting is that the draw was against Talita Alancar. Luciano earned a contract after that result as a +200 underdog and was scheduled to fight twice in 2024. However both fights were canceled due to her and her opponent dealing with illnesses. Now she gets to step back into the cage against a familiar opponent. In that Contender Series fight, Luciano outstruck Alancar by over two to one. The equalizing factor was the takedowns that Alancar landed: four out of 24 attempts. The fight was a draw because Luciano took over the fight in the final round. She was able to wear out her opponent despite getting controlled on the ground early in the fight.
Talita Alancar is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion and 10 years older in this fight. She has had one trip to the octagon since the Contender Series draw; she was a slight underdog and won via split decision versus Rayanne Amanda. That split decision was highly contested. Nine out of 10 MMA journalists on mmadecisions.com scored the fight for Alancar’s opponent. I think the younger fighter will look much better than the first time these two fought. I know that fights ending inside the distance at this weight class are extremely rare.
FIGHT WINNER: Stephanie Luciano
UFC BEST BET: Stephanie Luciano via Dec (+120), Risk 1 Unit to WIn 1.2
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UFC BEST BETS RECAP
- Marcin Tybura (+124) vs Spivac, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.24
- Barlow/Veretennikov UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-135), Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
- Gutierrez OVER 70.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
- Parlay: Karol Rosa/Chepe Mariscal (+119), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.19
- Karl Williams via Decision (+140) vs Diniz, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
- Stephanie Luciano via Dec (+120), Risk 1 Unit to WIn 1.2
The post UFC Fight Night Tybura vs. Spivac: Best Bets, Odds and Predictions appeared first on VSiN.
