MLB Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (August 11)

Today’s MLB Betting Trends:

The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, August 11, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Atlanta has won 14 of the last 16 games against Colorado (87.5%, +8.98 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 56.1%
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-175 at COL)

Trend: Chris Bassitt is 25-6 (+15.92 units) in day games vs teams with a losing record in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-155 vs. OAK)

Trend: Luis Severino is 6-15 (-7.83 units) as an underdog in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (+110 at SEA)

Trend: CIN not good during the day (18-29, -14.20 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-115 at MIL)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 131-98 (+20.14 units, ROI: 8.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-185 vs. DET)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 224-239 record for +5.51 units (ROI 1.2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-105 vs. CIN), OAKLAND (+130 at TOR), TAMPA BAY (-110 vs. BAL), CLEVELAND (-102 at MIN), LA ANGELS (+130 at WSH), NY METS (+110 at SEA)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trends strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NONE YET TODAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+114 vs. HOU), MILWAUKEE (-105 vs. CIN), PHILADELPHIA (-125 at AZ)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-270 vs. PIT)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-205 at MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-155 vs. LAA), SAN FRANCISCO (-185 vs. DET), NY METS (+110 at SEA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NONE YET TODAY

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 87-48 for -20.14 units and a ROI of -14.9%.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-270 vs. PIT)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/10, the record of this angle is again positive at 79-29 for +4.32 units.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-205 at MIA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 250-301 record for -15.23 units (ROI -2.8%). This is performing below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-105 vs. CIN), OAKLAND (+130 at TOR), TAMPA BAY (-110 vs. BAL), CLEVELAND (-102 at MIN), LA ANGELS (+130 at WSH), NY METS (+110 at SEA)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 140-165 for -18.55 units. The three-game teams are 68-73 for -1.43 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ARIZONA (+105 vs. PHI), FADE BALTIMORE (-110 at TB), FADE WASHINGTON (-155 vs. LAA)
3-games – FADE SEATTLE (-130 vs. NYM)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 150-136 for -18.17 units (-6.4% ROI) through Saturday, 8/10. We have seen far more lengthy losing streaks this season as compared to winning streaks, and I believe that is greatly affecting this system.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-205 at MIA), MILWAUKEE (-105 vs. CIN), HOUSTON (-135 at BOS), SAN FRANCISCO (-185 vs. DET)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1626-1511 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -177.40 units. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (-218 at MIA), TEXAS (+124 at NYY), ATLANTA (-175 at COL), ARIZONA (+105 vs. PHI)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1520-1962 (43.7%) for -191.24 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OAKLAND, DETROIT, CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH, NY METS

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3279-2880 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -441.79 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, WASHINGTON, KANSAS CITY, TAMPA BAY, COLORADO, ARIZONA

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 918-801 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +7.65 units for backers and an ROI of 0.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-155 vs. OAK), MILWAUKEE (-118 vs. CIN), MINNESOTA (-115 vs. CLE)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 467-400 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +12.58 units, for an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (-155 vs. OAK)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 301-151 (66.6%) for +38.40 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Matches (PLAY): ARIZONA (*if they become a favorite vs PHI, +105 currently)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 272-228 (54.4%) for +39.95 units and an ROI of 8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. TEX)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 141-152 (+8.64 units, ROI: 2.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+220 at LAD)

Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 188-104 (+5.88 units, ROI: 2%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (*if they become a favorite vs CIN, -105 currently)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 176-115 in their last 291 tries (+26.61 units, ROI: 9.1%).
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-218 at MIA)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -105 (+19 diff), ARIZONA +105 (+15 diff), PITTSBURGH +220 (+50 diff), OAKLAND +130 (+16 diff), CLEVELAND -102 (+17 diff), LA ANGELS +136 (+20 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TAMPA BAY -110 (+22 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.9), HOU-BOS UNDER 10.5 (-0.8)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) SAN DIEGO (66-52) at (902) MIAMI (43-75)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (42-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(903) CINCINNATI (56-61) at (904) MILWAUKEE (67-49)
Trend: CIN not good during the day (18-29, -14.20 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-115 at MIL)

(905) ATLANTA (61-55) at (906) COLORADO (43-75)
Trend: ATL better vs. LH starters (20-12, +1.01 units)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-175 at COL)

(907) PHILADELPHIA (69-48) at (908) ARIZONA (65-53)
Trend: AZ worse vs. LH starters (20-22, -7.30 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (+105 vs PHI)

(913) TEXAS (55-62) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (69-49)
Trend: NYY not as good bet vs. LH starters (12-17, -16.44 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-148 vs TEX)

(915) OAKLAND (49-69) at (916) TORONTO (54-63)
Trend: TOR slight Over during the day (30-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(917) BALTIMORE (70-48) at (918) TAMPA BAY (58-58)
Trend: BAL better vs. divisional teams (26-12, +10.55 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-110 at TB)

(919) CLEVELAND (68-49) at (920) MINNESOTA (65-51)
Trend: Under the total is 6-2 in head-to-head series this season
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(921) LOS ANGELES-AL (51-66) at (922) WASHINGTON (54-64)
Trend: LAA slight Under during the day (14-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(923) DETROIT (55-63) at (924) SAN FRANCISCO (61-58)
Trend: SF trending Over during the day (31-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(925) NEW YORK-NL (61-56) at (926) SEATTLE (62-56)
Trend: SEA more Under at home (19-40 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) SAN DIEGO (66-52) at (902) MIAMI (43-75)
Trend: Dylan Cease is 11-2 (+6.82 units) in the last five seasons as a large road favorite (-170 or higher)
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-205 at MIA)

(903) CINCINNATI (56-61) at (904) MILWAUKEE (67-49)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is 3-0 vs. Milwaukee (+4.05 units)
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-115 at MIL)

(905) ATLANTA (61-55) at (906) COLORADO (43-75)
Trend: COL is 9-18 (-5.50 units) in the underdog line range of +125 to +150 with starter Kyle Freeland in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+145 vs ATL)

(907) PHILADELPHIA (69-48) at (908) ARIZONA (65-53)
Trend: PHI is 8-15 (-10.28 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez the last 2+ seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-125 at AZ)

(909) PITTSBURGH (56-60) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (68-49)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 35-9 (+12.65 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last five seasons (including 21-5 (+6.72 units) in home starts)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-270 vs PIT)

(911) HOUSTON (61-55) at (912) BOSTON (61-54)
Trend: HOU is 3-7 (-5.75 units) as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-135 at BOS)

(913) TEXAS (55-62) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (69-49)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 19-31 (-14.80 units) vs teams with a >53% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+124 at NYY)

(915) OAKLAND (49-69) at (916) TORONTO (54-63)
Trend: OAK is 8-20 (-8.40 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last three years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+130 at TOR)

Trend: Chris Bassitt is 11-3 (+8.15 units) in July/Aug/Sept day games in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-155 vs OAK)

Trend: Chris Bassitt is 25-6 (+15.92 units) in day games vs teams with a losing record in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-155 vs OAK)

(919) CLEVELAND (68-49) at (920) MINNESOTA (65-51)
Trend: CLE is 15-3 (+12.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-105 at MIN)

(921) LOS ANGELES-AL (51-66) at (922) WASHINGTON (54-64)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 5-11 (-8.15 units) in HOME games vs teams with losing records in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-155 vs. LAA)

(925) NEW YORK-NL (61-56) at (926) SEATTLE (62-56)
Trend: Luis Severino is 6-15 (-7.83 units) as an underdog in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (+110 at SEA)

Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends

Series #21: Atlanta at Colorado, Fri 8/9-Sun 8/11
Trend: Atlanta has won 14 of the last 16 games against Colorado (87.5%, +8.98 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 56.1%
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-175 at COL)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, 8/19)

The post MLB Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (August 11) appeared first on VSiN.