MLB Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (August 15)

Today’s MLB Betting Trends:

The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, August 15, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: SEA is 8-1 (+7.19 units) vs. AL Central teams with starter Bryce Miller in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-142 at DET)

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 353-331 (51.6%) for +31.68 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-118 vs ATL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE): NY METS (-180 vs. OAK)

FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 92-50 for -19.04 units and an ROI of -13.4%.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-278 vs. WSH)

Trend: Favorites are 20-3 (87%, +14.45 units) in the last 23 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The ROI on this trend is 62.8%
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-135 at MIL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and a ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a nMLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NONE YET TODAY (watch for PHILADELPHIA vs. WSH)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA (+102 at SF)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-278 vs. WSH)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-122 vs. ATL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 92-50 for -19.04 units and an ROI of -13.4%.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-278 vs. WSH)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 262-313 record for -13.61 units (ROI -2.4%). This is performing below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+114 vs. LAD), ATLANTA (+102 at SF), OAKLAND (+150 at NYM)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 235-250 record for +6.49 units (ROI 1.3%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+114 vs. LAD), ATLANTA (+102 at SF)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 143-168 for -18.89 units. The three-game teams are 74-75 for +2.20 units.
System Matches: 3-games – FADE DETROIT (+114 vs SEA)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 157-141 for -18.44 units (-6.2% ROI) through Wednesday 8/14. We have seen far more lengthy losing streaks this season as compared to winning streaks, and I believe that is greatly affecting this system.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (+102 at SF)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1631-1521 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -184.30 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-102 vs. MIN), PHILADELPHIA (-278 vs. WSH), NY METS (-185 vs. OAK), ATLANTA (-102 at SF)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1526-1971 (43.6%) for -194.11 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-118 at TEX), WASHINGTON (+225 at PHI), SEATTLE (-142 at DET), OAKLAND (+154 at NYM)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3293-2886 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -434.49 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-102 vs. MIN), PHILADELPHIA (-278 vs. WSH), NY METS (-185 vs. OAK)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 301-151 (66.6%) for +38.40 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (*if they become favorites vs MIN, -102 currently)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 171-166 run (+32.78 units, ROI: 9.7%).
System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-118 vs. ATL)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 142-156 (+5.64 units, ROI: 1.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-118 vs. ATL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +225 (+25 diff), OAKLAND +150 (+15 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -135 (+15 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-MIL OVER 8 (+0.7), MIN-TEX OVER 8 (+0.5), ATL-SF OVER 7 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.7)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) LOS ANGELES-NL (71-50) at (902) MILWAUKEE (68-52)
Trend: MIL is 17-24 (-12.35 units) vs. NL East/West this season
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+114 vs. LAD)

(903) ATLANTA (64-56) at (904) SAN FRANCISCO (61-62)
Trend: SF not as good vs. LH starters (16-23, -11.62 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-118 vs. ATL)

(905) WASHINGTON (55-66) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (70-50)
Trend: Under the total is on a 6-1 run in the WSH-PHI head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(907) SEATTLE (63-58) at (908) DETROIT (58-63)
Trend: DET more Over vs. AL teams (46-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(909) BOSTON (63-56) at (910) BALTIMORE (71-50)
Trend: BOS more Over vs. divisional teams (16-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(911) MINNESOTA (67-53) at (912) TEXAS (56-65)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (20-36 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(913) OAKLAND (51-70) at (914) NEW YORK-NL (62-58)
Trend: NYM not as good during the day (22-30, -12.65 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS (-185 vs OAK)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(903) ATLANTA (64-56) at (904) SAN FRANCISCO (61-62)
Trend: ATL is 17-4 (+11.23 units) in road game starts by Max Fried in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-102 at SF)

(905) WASHINGTON (55-66) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (70-50)
Trend: Zach Wheeler is only 10-8 (-1.80 units) vs. Washington in the last five seasons
System Match: CONSIDER FADING PHILADELPHIA (-278 vs. WSH)

(907) SEATTLE (63-58) at (908) DETROIT (58-63)
Trend: SEA is 8-1 (+7.19 units) vs. AL Central teams with starter Bryce Miller in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-142 at DET)

(909) BOSTON (63-56) at (910) BALTIMORE (71-50)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 16-7 (+7.03 units) vs. AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-142 vs. BOS)

(911) MINNESOTA (67-53) at (912) TEXAS (56-65)
Trend: MIN is 5-10 (-6.44 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-118 at TEX)

(913) OAKLAND (51-70) at (914) NEW YORK-NL (62-58)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 2-6 (-8.53 units) as a day game large favorite (-165 or more) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-185 vs. OAK)

Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends

Series #13: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee, Mon 8/12-Thu 8/15
Trend: Favorites are 20-3 (87%, +14.45 units) in the last 23 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The ROI on this trend is 62.8%
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-135 at MIL)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, 8/19)

The post MLB Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (August 15) appeared first on VSiN.