MLB Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (August 26)

Today’s MLB Betting Trends:

The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, August 26, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

WSH letdown after series vs. ATLANTA: 9-20 (31%) -12.08 units, ROI: -41.7%
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (+154 vs. NYY)

Trend: Over the total is 9-1 when CLE is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in GAME 1 of KC-CLE (o/u at 8)

Trend: Bryce Miller is 2-9 (-7.63 units) vs. AL East teams in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-130 vs. TB)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 258-274 record for +8.16 units (ROI 1.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (+100 at STL), MIAMI (-110 at COL), TORONTO GAME 2 (+130 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (+114 at SEA), HOUSTON (+140 at PHI), ATLANTA (+102 at MIN), CLEVELAND GAME 1 (+110 vs. KC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-170 vs. HOU), NY YANKEES (-185 at WSH), MINNESOTA (-122 vs. ATL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units- ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): NONE YET TODAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-118 vs. CHC), CLEVELAND GAME 2 (-120 vs. KC), ATLANTA (+102 at MIN), COLORADO (-110 vs. MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-118 vs. CHC), ST. LOUIS (-120 vs. SD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): DET-CWS (o/u at 9)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 101-53 for -16.19 units and an ROI of -10.5%.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (*if they become -190 or higher at WSH, -185 currently)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 288-347 record for -16.57 units (ROI -2.6%). This is below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it especially after back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (+100 at STL), MIAMI (-110 at COL), TORONTO (+130 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (+114 at SEA), HOUSTON (+140 at PHI), ATLANTA (+102 at MIN), CLEVELAND GAME 1 (+110 vs. KC)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 258-274 record for +8.16 units (ROI 1.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (+100 at STL), MIAMI (-110 at COL), TORONTO (+130 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (+114 at SEA), HOUSTON (+140 at PHI), ATLANTA (+102 at MIN), CLEVELAND GAME 1 (+110 vs. KC)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 161-191 for -20.49 units. The three-game teams are 82-84 for +1.69 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PHILADELPHIA (-166 vs. HOU)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1646-1540 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -191.61 units. This represents an ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-185 at WSH), DETROIT (-155 at CWS), PHILADELPHIA (-166 vs. HOU)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1554-1992 (43.8%) for -179.33 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-102 at MIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-105 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (+110 at SEA)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3326-2910 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -431.68 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+154 vs. NYY), BOSTON (-162 vs. TOR), PHILADELPHIA (-166 vs. HOU)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 475-406 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +15.47 units, for an ROI of 1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY): SEATTLE (-130 vs. TB)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 23-50 (-6.71 units, ROI: -9.2%) in their last 73 tries.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (*if they become +140 or worse at BOS, +136 currently)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TORONTO GAME 2 +130 (+20 diff), CLEVELAND GAME 1 +114 (+40 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT -155 (+35 diff), CLEVELAND GAME 2 -122 (+19 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIA-COL OVER 10.5 (+0.7), KC-CLE GAME 2 OVER 8.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHC-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.8)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) CHICAGO-NL (65-66) at (952) PITTSBURGH (62-68)
Trend: CHC slight Under vs. RH starters (45-57 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(953) SAN DIEGO (74-58) at (954) ST LOUIS (65-65)
Trend: SD solid bet on the road (36-26, +8.72 units)
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (+100 at STL)

(955) MIAMI (47-83) at (956) COLORADO (48-83)
Trend: COL not good vs. NL East/Central (15-33, -11.04 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (-110 vs MIA)

(957) KANSAS CITY (72-58) at (958) CLEVELAND (75-55) (DH
Game #1)
Trend: Over the total is 9-1 when CLE is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in GAME 1 (o/u at 8)

(959) KANSAS CITY (72-58) at (960) CLEVELAND (75-55) (DH Game #2)
Trend: CLE better at home (40-21, +10.61 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND GAME 2 (-120 vs. KC)

(961) TORONTO (63-68) at (962) BOSTON (67-62)
Trend: TOR heavy Over in divisional play (28-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

(963) DETROIT (65-66) at (964) CHICAGO-AL (31-100)
Trend: DET leads head-to-head season series (8-1 record)
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-155 at CWS)

(965) TAMPA BAY (65-65) at (966) SEATTLE (66-65)
Trend: SEA not as good against AL East/Central (24-34, -15.76 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-130 vs TB)

(969) NEW YORK-AL (77-54) at (970) WASHINGTON (59-72)
Trend: NYY worse vs. LH starters (16-20, -18.59 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-185 at WSH)

(971) ATLANTA (70-60) at (972) MINNESOTA (72-58)
Trend: ATL heavy Under vs. AL teams (9-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(955) MIAMI (47-83) at (956) COLORADO (48-83)
Trend: MIA is 11-6 (+6.68 units) as shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (*if they become an underdog in this range, -110 currently*)

(959) KANSAS CITY (72-58) at (960) CLEVELAND (75-55) (DH Game #2)
Trend: CLE is 15-6 (+9.35 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND GAME 2 (-120 vs KC)

(965) TAMPA BAY (65-65) at (966) SEATTLE (66-65)
Trend: Bryce Miller is 2-9 (-7.63 units) vs. AL East teams in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-130 vs TB)

(967) HOUSTON (70-60) at (968) PHILADELPHIA (76-54)
Trend: Zach Wheeler is 14-3 (+8.75 units) as a home favorite between -165 and -190 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-166 vs. HOU)

(971) ATLANTA (70-60) at (972) MINNESOTA (72-58)
Trend: ATL is 17-5 (+10.15 units) in road game starts by Max Fried in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (+102 at MIN)

Trend: MIN is 6-11 (-6.66 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-122 vs. ATL)

Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends

Series #14: San Diego at St. Louis, Mon 8/26-Thu 8/29
Trend: Home teams are 14-4 (77.8%, +9.01 units) in the last 18 games between San Diego and St. Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 50.1%
System Matches: PLAY ST. LOUIS (-120 vs. SD)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

WASHINGTON
Letdown after series vs. ATLANTA: 9-20 (31%) -12.08 units, ROI: -41.7%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 8/26 vs NY Yankees
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (+154 vs. NYY)

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