NBA 2024-25 Strategies Using DK Betting Splits Data:
At the outset of the 2023-24 NBA season, I released some DraftKings NBA Betting Splits systems, reacting to the success and popularity of the same data we have offered on VSiN for both college and pro football and MLB. We continuously updated the qualifying plays on each system for every day of the season on our NBA Analytics Report. As we get ready for the 2024-25 season, I have an update to the systems we will be employing as we embark on another NBA campaign. Of course, we will again offer qualifying plays daily on the Analytics Reports. If you’re an avid NBA bettor, you cannot afford to be without this expert analysis daily.
To summarize the findings from the last season-and-a-half of data I was given, the sample contained 2090 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups, with more than a 4.0% spread in all three categories. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 1053-978 ATS (51.8%), -22.8 units – ROI: -1.1%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 1004-1009 ATS (49.9%), -105.9 units – ROI: -5.3%
– Majority handle on money lines: 1353-715 (65.4%). -108.23 units – ROI: -5.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 1353-710 (65.6%). -205.3 units – ROI: -9.9%
– Majority handle on totals: 1079-959 (52.9%). +24.1 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1032-1000 (50.8%), -68 units – ROI: -3.3%
If you’re wondering why the results don’t add up to 2090 games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, and there were several ATS ties already in the season.
The numbers were remarkably consistent overall when compared to the 2022-23 season findings.
One other thing that you should notice immediately about the overall findings is that the majority handle bettors were far more successful than the majority number of bets groups. This shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, as the handle would tend to include a greater percentage of bigger money bettors who are perhaps more “sharp,” while the number of bets groups contains all of the bets that come in, which includes the smallest of recreational bettors’ input.
Why is this Betting Splits information so valuable? Well, most specifically, it lets us see which games are the most publicly supported each day or week. The common belief is that the “betting public” does not win over the long haul, and with the amount of money DK spends on acquiring customers, you have to assume that most of the bettors that play there would be considered “public.” In other words, the collective opinions of this group of recreational bettors are right out on display for all of us to analyze and take advantage of.
Before updating/revealing the system data I have uncovered for the last season-and-a-half of NBA betting, I should remind you of the two common betting generalities for recreational players who wager at places like DraftKings. That is the majority bet favorites on point spread and Overs on totals. The numbers are staggering. According to the final ticket/handle last NBA season, majority wagers were on favorites in at least 86% of the games, and on Overs for totals in 73%. These numbers are more dramatic than both college and pro football.
I always like to use the overall data for developing systems for using these betting splits breakdowns for betting the NBA. If you haven’t been using these in our daily NBA Analytics Reports, I highly recommend adding it to your handicapping arsenal.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this supermajority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on the home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this supermajority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved with these rarer contests.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on moneyline wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority moneyline handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle moneyline wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2%, and you can see that bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a moneyline wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while the majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a risky strategy in the NBA.
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 50% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while the majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
The betting splits on VSiN.com are running live and will change in the days and hours before game time. If you adopt any of these strategies this season, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest numbers. In the spirit of continuous improvement, we have redesigned and expanded the VSiN betting splits page, the most popular destination on VSiN.com.
The data, which we get directly from DraftKings Sportsbook, is now updated every five minutes instead of 10. We ping the DK database and see what data has changed and then indicate the change with an arrow next to the percentage.
Also, if you want to see the opening line and the line history, click on the visiting team’s logo. The updates are timestamped. A nice new touch is that – if the game is over – you will get a summary that includes the final score, Total result, season Over/Under record for each team, and you can compare the result to Steve Makinen’s estimated score.
Unlimited access to betting splits and the NBA Analytics Reports is available to VSiN Pro subscribers.
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