Portland was 21-61 SU/39-41-2 ATS last season. It finished 29th in non-garbage time net rating (-10.3). Its offense averaged 108.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time; the second-lowest mark in the league. The Trail Blazers’ defense was slightly better, but they still finished 23rd in the league in defensive efficiency (118.5).
The betting market has Portland rated as the second-worst team in the NBA. However, this roster is not devoid of talent. It all just depends on how Chauncey Billups decides to employ that talent this season.
The Trail Blazers had the seventh-highest frequency of mid-range attempts (32.4%) and the fifth-highest rate of long mid-range shots (10.5%). But, the team finished last in mid-range shooting (39.2%). In fact, Portland finished 30th in four of the seven shooting categories Cleaning The Glass tracks. That needs to improve.
Defensively, the rim protection needs to take a step forward this season. The Trail Blazers allowed opponents to take 35.2% of their attempts at the rim. They ranked 29th in opponent shooting at the rim (70.8%) and 27th in blocks per game (4.3). Portland has no shortage of centers on this roster, so one would think this aspect of its defense is destined to improve this season.
What the Trail Blazers get from their young core must also improve this season.
Shaedon Sharpe was limited to just 32 games last season due to an abdominal injury. He averaged 11.6 points and 3.5 rebounds. There was a severe decline in his efficiency as well. Sharpe ranked in the 26th percentile at his position in points per 100 shot attempts (106.5) and shot 40.6% from the floor.
Scoot Henderson needs to build on what he showed in the last 14 games of the regular season. Thrust back into the starting lineup, the former third overall pick averaged 18.9 points and 7.9 assists to end the year. He also shot 39.5% from deep on 5.8 attempts per game. Henderson is likely coming off the bench to start the season, but if he continues on that path he will find himself back in the starting lineup sooner rather than later.
This team has an oddly high floor because of the presence of veterans like Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton. If the Trail Blazers’ shot selection improves and young players like Henderson continue their positive trajectory, the offense should improve. This still projects to be a below average team on both ends though, even if they climb out of the basement on offense.
Blazers Win Total Prediction
There are quite a few moving parts on this roster. One would imagine that Robert Williams – and perhaps Anfernee Simons – is on a different team by the time the season ends. Billups could be coaching for his job, which could mean leaning too heavily on the veterans, as opposed to letting the young players like Henderson, Sharpe, Avdija and Toumani Camara develop. This team’s talent level is not as low as Washington, which could be an awful team this season. Still, I cannot trust Billups to get this team to exceed market expectations.
Lean: Under 22.5 Wins (-115)
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