NFL Week 13:
Week 13 is a big one in the NFL. Literally. Nobody is on a bye, so we have all 32 teams in action and 16 games to pick from. And we have three of them on Thursday, as the Thanksgiving holiday comes this week. Plus, we’ll have our second Friday game of the season after the Eagles and Packers played in Brazil way back in Week 1.
Odds are on the move after being reposted and there are a lot of things to unpack as we start the process of nailing down Week 13.
Here is the Week 13 NFL Odds Report:
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-10.5, 48)
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Lions and no Tigers and Bears, oh my! The Lions and Bears get us going early on Thursday, as Chicago has gotten a little bit of respect off the overtime loss against the Vikings. And by “little”, I mean this line was 11.5 on the lookahead and most markets had it sitting 10.5 as of Sunday night.
Caleb Williams has looked really good in two games with interim OC Thomas Brown, but the Lions feel like they’re on another level relative to the rest of the league at this point. They had no problems covering 7 or 7.5 on the road against the Colts and now head home laying doubles against a division foe on a short week.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 38)
4:30 p.m. ET
We get Tommy DeVito and Cooper Rush, so when that post-Thanksgiving lunch nap is setting in, this should be a good time to take it. The Cowboys inexplicably beat the Commanders last week to hurt their draft position, while the Giants got thumped at home by Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. This line was Cowboys -2.5 and has been adjusted to as high as 4 (DraftKings), with most of the market sitting 3.5.
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 47.5)
8:20 p.m. ET
Let’s watch this line super closely. The Packers beat a severely shorthanded 49ers team that was forced to start Brandon Allen, while the Dolphins handled the Patriots to add a little fuel to their pretty slim playoff hopes. It’s a short week with long travel for Miami, plus Tua Tagovailoa has to play in the cold, which a lot of people are understandably worried about. This is about where this line was in the lookahead markets and a lot of places are actually dealing 3 with extra juice on Green Bay. I’ll be curious to see how this one plays out with a lot of situational and environmental factors against Miami, but they’ve absolutely played way better since Tua returned.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-13, 42.5)
Friday, 3 p.m. ET
The Chiefs once again failed to cover as a big favorite, needing a last-second field goal to beat the Panthers. Market confidence cannot be very high in KC, but Gardner Minshew left hurt for the Raiders and to say that Desmond Ridder looked like a deer in headlights to end the game is insulting to a deer in headlights. It is not enjoyable to lay big numbers with the Chiefs, but they absolutely warrant a big number here.
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (-5.5, 44)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
This is the line that stands out the most to be based on adjustments made from the lookahead lines to Sunday night. This line was north of a touchdown, but the Commanders lost to the Cowboys and the Titans went on the road and beat the Texans, scoring 32 points in the process. Tennessee hasn’t had a ton of bright spots this season, but Will Levis played great and it was a genuinely impressive win for Brian Callahan’s crew. The Commanders dropped a very winnable game and have now lost three in a row, as it seems like the league has adjusted to them.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 47)
1 p.m. ET
The Bengals are such a hard team to figure out. Joe Burrow is having a career year and the team stinks. Cincinnati is off of a bye here and you have to think that’s beneficial. The Steelers are off of a loss to the Browns in a snow globe on Thursday night, partially negating Cincy’s rest advantage. No team in the NFL has burned bettors more than the Bengals it feels like, but they are a home favorite here against a team four games ahead of them in the AFC North standings.
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 43) at New England Patriots
1 p.m. ET
The Colts have been a letdown more often than not the last few weeks, but the Patriots are a letdown most every week. New England was pretty soundly beaten by the Dolphins, but Indy was soundly beaten by the Lions. Two bad data points rarely lead to any sort of adjustment to the lookahead line and this one is more or less where it was, though Indy’s 2.5s are juiced and the market was mostly 2 or a flat 2.5. We’ll see if this one gets to 3, as early indications are that bettors want to fade New England more than they want to consider fading Indy in this spot.
Houston Texans (-6, 43) at Jacksonville Jaguars
1 p.m. ET
It turns out that losing to the Titans is bad for optics, as the Texans are now under a TD favorite against the Jaguars. Shockingly, Doug Pederson did not lose his job during the bye week. We still don’t know if Trevor Lawrence will be good to go or not, but the market was so disgusted by Houston’s performance that we’re down to 6 and Circa was even showing 5 as of Sunday night. We should get more clarity on the Lawrence injury sooner rather than later, but we do know that the Jags won’t have Gabe Davis, whose season is over.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 46.5)
1 p.m. ET
I have to be honest. No team disappointed me more in Week 12 than Arizona. The Cardinals scored six points against Seattle coming out of the bye. Defensively, they played well, as a pick-six for the Seattle defense made the score look better than it was, but Jonathan Gannon and Drew Petzing did not have a good plan on offense. Minnesota struggled with Chicago, sure, but the Bears needed an onside kick recovery to force overtime and the Vikings still walked it off in extras. I think this line has a good shot to climb after moving up a half-point from the lookahead number.
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 42) at New York Jets
1 p.m. ET
This is a really hard game to figure out. Aaron Rodgers says that he wants to play next season, but time will tell if he wants to play for the Jets. New York is a mess right now, with GM Joe Douglas fired during the bye week and owner Woody Johnson spouting off to the media. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are just going about their business and are 2-0 since the bye. This is a flipped favorite situation from the lookahead line and the Jets didn’t even play last week, so that seems like a pretty loud statement, as Seattle comes off of back-to-back division games to play a 10 a.m. kick at the Meadowlands.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6, 46) at Carolina Panthers
4:05 p.m. ET
It is always interesting to see which team gets credit for a blowout. Does the winning team get a boost for an impressive victory or does the bad team get the credit for being terrible? Well, in this case, it would appear that the consensus is that the Giants stink and the Bucs got no extra love for the win. Maybe it’s because the Panthers took the Chiefs to the ropes, but ultimately lost on a walk-off field goal. But, this line was 7 and now it’s not, as Bryce Young and the Panthers continued to look competent for rookie HC Dave Canales.
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-7, 46)
8:20 p.m. ET
The 49ers are not at all where anybody expected them to be. A resounding loss to the Packers without Brock Purdy pushed them further out of the playoff picture and into some territory we have not seen much of late. The Bills come off the bye as a seven-point favorite in a game that was 3.5 in the lookahead markets. The 49ers have not been a touchdown or more underdog since Week 10 of the 2020 season. We’ll see if Purdy can give it a go, but for now, this is a line we have not seen in quite some time.
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 41.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
The Broncos did what they needed to do against the Raiders and are in great position for an AFC playoff spot. The Browns beat the Steelers and really have no playoff aspirations at all, but it was a feel-good win for a team that hasn’t really had any this season. They’re on plenty of extra rest here against the Broncos and this line was 7.5 in the lead-up to Week 13, but has been adjusted in a rather noteworthy way. Denver really didn’t do anything wrong, but we found out that Cleveland is not quitting. I’ll be curious to see where this line goes, given that we’ve seen a lot of Jekyll and Hyde from Jameis Winston already.
Bookmark the NFL Week 13 Hub to get all of this week’s NFL betting content!
The post NFL Week 13 Odds Report appeared first on VSiN.
