NFL Lookahead Lines:
No more bye weeks, eight road favorites, and not a single matchup of two teams battling out for divisional significance. But, there are always going to be NFL betting opportunities on the lookahead lines.
The following are current Week 15 NFL numbers posted at DraftKings:
Week 15 Thursday Night Football
- Rams at 49ers (-3, 47)
Week 15 Sunday NFL games
- Ravens (-13, 44.5) at Giants
- Commanders (-3, 49) at Saints
- Chiefs (-6.5, 44.5) at Browns
- Bengals (-3.5, 49) at Titans
- Cowboys (-1.5, 44) at Panthers
- Dolphins at Texans (-2.5, 46.5)
- Jets (-3, 40.5) at Jaguars
- Bills at Lions (-2, 50.5)
- Patriots at Cardinals (-7, 45.5)
- Steelers at Eagles (-4.5, 45.5)
- Colts at Broncos (-3.5, 43.5)
- Buccaneers at Chargers (-3, 46.5)
Week 13 Sunday Night Football
- Packers (-3, 46.5) at Seahawks
Week 13 Monday Night Football
- Bears at Vikings (-6, 43)
- Falcons (-3.5, 45) at Raiders
I’ll start with a couple of totals. The Bengals are 9-3 to the Over on the season. The Titans are 7-4-1 to the Over. Cincinnati is the sixth-worst defensive team in EPA/play, 30th in DVOA vs. the pass and 26th vs. the rush. They also have the sixth-best offensive DVOA, and are fifth in passing DVOA. Joe Burrow also leads the league in completions, attempts, yards, TDs, and is second in QBR. The Bengals have lost four games this year when scoring 33+ points, which is unheard of. It’s a perfect recipe for a team to continue playing Overs. I need to bet until further notice.
The team Cincinnati plays in Week 14, Dallas, is 8-4 to the Over on the season, including three straight. The offense has improved in recent weeks, as it has for their Week 15 foe, Carolina. Panthers QB Bryce Young has been playing much better football, and the team has shown the ability to move the football and put up points. The defense remains one of the worst in the league in several different metrics. In my opinion, 44 is too low of a total.
The Lions are favored by two points hosting Buffalo. I know the Lions have injuries on defense, but this number is telling us the Bills are the highest power-rated team in the league. VSiN’s Steve Makinen agrees. I can’t get there with the Bills. It’s Detroit for me below a field goal. The Lions are 9-3 ATS on the year (covering by 9+ points per game), and 4-2 ATS at home (covering by 8+ppg). The Bills are playing across the country on Sunday afternoon against the Rams. Detroit will be coming off of extra rest as they host the Packers this week on Thursday night. They’ve had extra rest vs. an opponent once this year and won in Dallas 47-9 after their bye. I think it’s a really good spot for Detroit and will bet -2.
I’ll give you an ugly dog to consider. The Las Vegas Raiders haven’t had many “true” home-field crowds since moving to Las Vegas a handful of years ago. Sure, you’ll see more silver and black in the stands when they host the Chargers and their apathetic fans every year, but usually the Chiefs/Broncos/Steelers and others are very well represented at Allegiant Stadium. Opposing fans circle this game on the calendar to make the trip every single year. That will not be the case when the Atlanta Falcons visit Vegas for a Monday night clash nine days out from Christmas. The stadium and players will be juiced to play in primetime, and Atlanta is coming off a road game in Minnesota. That could get ugly for Kirk Cousins and the Falcons -3.5 could be gone by the time numbers reopen after Week 14 action.
One schedule note to watch starting in Week 15: the Pittsburgh Steelers start a three-game stretch in 10 days by playing on December 15th in Philadelphia. Following that is a trip to Baltimore on the 21st, and then they’re back home to host the Chiefs on Christmas Day. Pittsburgh’s schedule has been a talking point since the night it was released but now is when it starts to get serious.
The post NFL Week 15 Lookahead Lines and Predictions from Mitch Moss appeared first on VSiN.
