College Football Best Bets December 14-18 from Steve Makinen:
Got another plus-.500 week in the conference championship, although I wished I could have hit at least one Power 4 conference game. A 5-4 mark puts my season record at 127-116-5 ATS (52.3%) for college football as we push into the bowl and playoff games. For the rest of the season, I will be posting my Best Bets on a week-to-week basis, covering games from Thursday through Wednesday each time. For this week, I will just be detailing each of the handful of games scheduled through December 18. I’ve researched each of them intensely, so I will be sharing my opinion on all. I’m relying not only on the VSiN Analytics Reports we have run weekly all season long but also all of the bowl prep that I have completed and will continue to put in. Enjoy the opening bowl games this weekend, as well as the annual Army-Navy contest. Here are the upcoming week’s college football best bets.
South Alabama at Western Michigan
Salute to Veterans Bowl
Saturday, December 15, 9:00 p.m. ET
We have a 6-6 bowl to start the season, with South Alabama meeting up with Western Michigan in Montgomery, Alabama. This game did make my list of regional advantages for South Alabama, as it is being played in southern Alabama. The line opened in double-digits but has since dumped down to Jaguars -7. The reason for this hasn’t been said officially, but one would have to figure it is as a result of the status of South Alabama QB Gio Lopez, who is likely to miss the game due to injury. He was a huge part of the offense this year, accounting for over 3000 yards and 25 TDs. His loss is significant, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the line drop even more before Saturday.
Recall that in bowl games between 1992-2024 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 40-25-1 ATS (61.5%). Head coach Major Applewhite’s team struggled in the small favorite role this season, going 1-3 SU and ATS as single-digit chalk. Western Michigan, meanwhile, had to win its season finale game against EMU to make it to their first bowl game in three seasons. I think they’ll be the more motivated team here, and Lopez’s injury will be too much to overcome a 7-point line.
College Football Best Bets: I’ll go Western Michigan +7 to kick off the bowl season
Navy at Army
Saturday, December 15. 3:00 p.m. ET
It is generally inarguable that Army has had a way better season than Navy. Besides the 11-1 versus 8-3 record difference, the Knights are conference champions and were a threat to represent the Group of 5 teams in the playoffs. The only loss was at the hands of a very good Notre Dame team. So why are oddsmakers so afraid to move the line versus Navy to the key 7-point benchmark despite 95% of the handle and 92% of the bets at DraftKings coming in on Army? Could it be because they are taking a side on this game and that side is Navy?
To me, motivation is key in this game every year, and motivation is often derived from the point spread in the contest. Navy thinks it is pretty good too and is likely using the motivation of being a pretty big underdog to Army as fuel. As it is, underdogs are on a 9-4 ATS run in this rivalry. I also like the fact that because these teams play similar offenses, I actually can appreciate the fact that Navy has a little better balance offensively, with a more dynamic passing attack. Everyone knows Army QB Bryson Daily, but much lesser known is Navy’s Blake Horvath, who threw for 277 yards more than Daily in one lesser game, all while accounting for 11 passing TDs and 24 TDs overall. He is more than capable of keeping the Midshipmen in this game.
College Football Best Bets: I’ll go Navy +6.5 versus Army
Jackson State at South Carolina State
Celebration Bowl
Saturday, December 14, 12:00 p.m. ET
From the sounds of it, both of Jackson State’s top two quarterbacks as well, as South Carolina State starter Eric Phoenix will be out for the Celebration Bowl due to injury. That means 31 unaccounted for TDs for JSU, and 22 for SCSU that have to be replaced. FCS teams don’t have the same riches as most FBS teams on their benches, so the task in replacing key players is more significant. Not to mention the fact that all three of the players I named are dual threats, meaning if they aren’t in, do the offenses change entirely? On the fly? Both of these teams are also pretty strong defensively, as Jackson State allowed just 18.8 PPG and South Carolina State just 22.7. Neither is a really fast-paced team offensively. This looks like a grind-it-out type of contest, with the defenses having the edge.
College Football Best Bets: I’ll go Under 54.5 in the Celebration Bowl
Memphis vs. West Virginia
Frisco Bowl
Tuesday, December 17, 9:00 p.m. ET
Do yourself a favor and find a transfer portal list for West Virginia before betting the Mountaineers in this contest. Not saying that all of the lengthy list will be out for this game, but a lot of what occurred in that regard was because of the removal of head coach Neal Brown. With an interim coach in place and a lengthy transfer portal list, the future is definitely not now for WVU. Where does the motivation to beat Memphis come from?
I’m not surprised to see a lot of the money at DK on the Tigers, who have won their last three bowl games behind Ryan Silverfield, both SU and ATS, all by double-digit margins. His team is riding high after pulling off a huge upset win as 12.5-point underdogs at Tulane to close the season. I also don’t think you can ignore that the Mountaineers were 0-6 SU and ATS against the six bowl teams they have played this season, 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS against the others.
College Football Best Bets: Let’s lay the 3-points with Memphis
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison
Boca Raton Bowl
Wednesday, December 18, 5:30 p.m. ET
There is a very lengthy transfer portal list for Western Kentucky again this season, and it includes starting QB Caden Veltkamp. This has happened on multiple occasions in head coach Tyson Helton’s tenure at WKU, and for whatever reason, he gets most of them to still play in the bowl game, including last year in the incredible come-from-behind win over Old Dominion.
Regardless of how that situation winds up, the biggest loss in this game is clearly on the other sideline, where starting QB Alonza Barnett III will miss the contest due to a knee injury. How much does Barnett mean to the Dukes? Well, he accounted for over 3000 yards of offense, as well as 33 TDs. His TD-int ratio of 26-4 will be a huge loss, as turnovers can often decide bowl games. The worst part about his loss is that his team has had little chance to play without him this season, as two other QBs have accounted for just two pass attempts in relief. JMU isn’t riding big momentum here either, having lost its final two games of the season. They were 3-5 ATS in their final eight contests. I don’t trust the Dukes laying points against a program that has scored 47 PPG in going 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three bowl appearances.
College Football Best Bets: I’ll take +9 points with Western Kentucky
California vs. UNLV
LA Bowl
Wednesday, December 18, 9:00 p.m. ET
California got the undesirable news that QB Fernando Mendoza had entered his name in the transfer portal on Wednesday morning. Making matters worse, we were left to watch the status of backup Chandler Rogers, as he was hurt in the season finale. Upon the news, the total dropped from 51.5 to 50.5 on instant reaction. Was that enough after Mendoza threw for over 3,000 yards this season? Doesn’t seem like it to me, and I’m confused as to why still 93% of the handle at DraftKings was backing an Over for the LA Bowl game versus UNLV.
Cal has been an Under type of team for most of my recent memory, going 7-3-2 Under in the 12 games of ’24. The Bears’ defense allowed just 22.2 PPG this season and held six teams to 17 points or fewer. UNLV has been a pretty prolific scoring team overall but went Under in its last three games and scored just seven points in the season finale at Boise State. Did I mention that the Runnin’ Rebels will be without their head coach for this game, too? Yes, Barry Odom found the grass to be greener at Purdue apparently.
From a statistical standpoint, I know Cal’s defense is respected. I think UNLV’s is underrated. In fact, in terms of my “effective stats,” Cal gives up 13.9 PPG and holds teams 12.8 points below their offensive averages. UNLV’s effective allowance is 16.9 PPG, 9.8 below averages. Doing the math and incorporating offensive/defensive effective stats, my model calls for just 46.6 points scored in this contest, well below the 50.5 listed.
College Football Best Bets: I’ll go UNDER 50.5 in the Cal-UNLV LA Bowl
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