The Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season features the Washington Commanders hosting the Atlanta Falcons at Northwest Stadium. We’ll continue diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 17 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Falcons vs. Commanders
When: Sunday, December 29th at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland
Channel: NBC/Peacock
Falcons vs. Commanders Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, December 28th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Commanders -180, Falcons +150
Spread: Commanders -3.5 (-108), Falcons +3.5 (-112)
Total: Over 46.5 (-112), Under 46.5 (-108)
Falcons vs. Commanders Analysis
If you look at our DraftKings betting splits and Circa betting splits pages, you’ll see that everybody is running to bet the Commanders in this game. It’s clear that there isn’t a lot of faith in rookie Michael Penix Jr. going against a Dan Quinn defense, especially with an inconsistent Atlanta defense having to face Jayden Daniels. But I’m taking the points in this game.
While Kirk Cousins’ struggles were the story of the last couple of weeks, the Falcons have quietly turned the corner defensively. Since Week 13, there isn’t a team in the league that has been better when it comes to EPA per play allowed (-0.144). Atlanta is fifth in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.238) in this recent stretch, and the team is also second in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.103). Of course, playing against Desmond Ridder and Drew Lock helps. And Sam Darnold did torch this defense in one of the four games. But the Falcons also had a great defensive performance against Justin Herbert. And realistically, there’s plenty of talent at every level of this defense, and Raheem Morris is a good defensive coach. So, it isn’t crazy to think that the Falcons have found something here. Also, the Commanders have regressed offensively after a scorching start to the year. Since Week 10, Washington is just 16th in the NFL in EPA per play (0.017).
I’m just not sure you can count on the Commanders to shred this secondary, and I think the Falcons are going to have some success offensively. Washington is 25th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.029) this year, so Bijan Robinson should be able to consistently move the chains and set up manageable situations for Penix. And Penix did look pretty solid against the Giants, as he was a little more mobile and confident than Cousins in the pocket. Had it not been for a bad Kyle Pitts red-zone drop, Penix would have made it through the game without a pick. And he’ll now look to build on all of that in a good passing matchup. Washington is just 24th in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.106).
Overall, I see why people believe Daniels will go out and win this game for the Commanders, but it’s hard not to like a team with a better defense and a good matchup on offense. That’s why I’m grabbing the points. And I do like that Atlanta is 5-2 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 under Morris. Meanwhile, Washington is just 2-3 both straight-up and ATS when facing teams with winning records under Quinn.
Falcons vs. Commanders Player Props
Bijan Robinson Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
If I had to take a player prop in this game, I’d go with Robinson to have at least 20 receiving yards. While I like Robinson to make his mark in the running game, Tyler Allgeier will surely mix in here. This is a great rushing matchup, so the Falcons can hammer away with both back and keep them fresh. But I definitely like Robinson to have a big day as a receiver out of the backfield. Robinson has only 28 receiving yards over the last three games, but he had at least 20 in six straight before that. Atlanta knows it has a weapon in the passing game with Robinson, and he’s also a guy that can make life easy on Penix. The best way to build the rookie’s confidence is to get him some quick, short completions early on. And I see Atlanta going to the screen game regularly in this one.
Falcons vs. Commanders Pick
It seems too easy to just back the Commanders in this one, and a deeper dive into this matchup shows that the Falcons have a good shot at winning outright. That’s why the sharp money is coming in on Atlanta, and that’s the side I’m rolling with. Don’t be surprised if the Falcons steal this one, but you might as well take the 3.5 without having to deal with much juice on it.
Bet: Falcons +3.5 (-109)
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