UFC Vegas 101 Predictions:
Digital Insight the Octagon returns for an eighth year of bottom-line profitable UFC releases. These fight releases are offered to digital subscribers of the most powerful betting platform in sports investing: VSIN. After almost a month off, mixed martial artistry returns, featuring athletes from across the world who bring specialized fight weaponry into each matchup. This week, UFC Vegas 101, from the UFC APEX, offers a fight slate featuring fourteen scheduled bouts with an array of international athletes whose body types and fight acumen range from one end of the fight spectrum to the other.
UFC Vegas 101 commences Saturday at 1 p.m. PT with preliminary action and then segways to the main card competition at 4 p.m. PT.
Amanda Ribas -215 vs. Mackenzie Dern +185
Women’s strawweight (115 pounds) main event
Eighth-ranked Ribas is a highly skilled black belt in both BJJ and Judo. She’s adroit on the feet, though like most strawweight fighters, she lacks any real power with her strikes/kicks. Ribas can compete anywhere the fight goes, and she sports a victory over her fellow Brazilian compatriot from 2019, when each fighter was a shell of who they are today. Each athlete has improved drastically.
For Ribas, she must defend her 2019 victory and attempt to take Dern’s number six ranking from her. However, she’ll have to do it at 115 pounds.
Weight is of note because Ribas’ last bout was at 125 pounds. She’s switched weight classes back and forth for several fights now, which is a sign of versatility and a bit of a tell. Shifting weight classes back-to-back for several fights seems a risky undertaking from a performance standpoint, especially when dropping as she is again doing for this fight.
While Ribas is an extremely talented fighter, fighting Dern in a rematch at this weight class and arriving a solid -215 favorite after being underdog in their first fight carries substantial risk.
Dern took that first fight against Ribas in October 2019 after giving birth to her daughter that June!
For that bout, Dern overcame an abbreviated post-delivery recovery. On top of that, she weighed in on point, something she had difficulty doing as a younger fighter before her pregnancy.
So, for that first Ribas tussle, Dern had absolutely everything under control save for the most critical component of the fight: a decent performance. Dern performed sluggishly, seemed soft and physically undefined, and competed without passion.
In this fight, Dern, a savant world-class BJJ practitioner, will hold advantage over Ribas on the mat. She just needs to find a way to get the fight there, as Dern has struggled before with taking opponents to the floor.
With that said, however, Dern’s striking has evolved tremendously, and while she will not be as deft afoot or flashy/fast as Ribas, she will hold a considerable advantage in size and power.
This is going to be a competitive bout and one where Dern is positioned to perform much more effectively than she did five years ago.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -215
Santiago Ponzinibbio -125 vs. Carlston Harris +105
Welterweight (170 pounds) co-main event
Argentinean athlete Ponzinibbio was on the cusp of welterweight greatness and perhaps even a title opportunity when injury interrupted a skyrocketing career after a stellar 2019 performance against Neil Magny.
Three years on the shelf later, Ponzinibbio is 2-5 in UFC competition. At 38 years old, the warrior spirit/will is there, as is the warrior power, but the warrior cardio and chin have eroded. The Ponzinibbio we will see Saturday will be as proud as the Ponzinibbio of yesteryear, but certainly not as skilled or precise as we can all recall.
The good news for Ponzinibbio is that he is fighting a 36-year-old from Guyana who was a bus mechanic before trying his hand at MMA combat. Harris is as big and strong as a man can come, and he holds a black belt in Luta livra and a brown belt in BJJ.
The 37-year-old Harris will arrive at this fight with a three-inch reach advantage and every bit of the desperation to earn victory as his opponent Ponzinibbio will bring. Each is aware that they cannot afford a loss.
Such a situation is sure to produce extreme violence, as it is my position that someone in this fight is going to get rung up. Harris’ advantage is his power, durability and willingness to move forward with constant pressure, but his defense can be suspect.
Ponzinibbio will be the faster man in the initial stages of this fight, but his skills have been waning in recent fights, albeit against worthy competition.
Harris’ unrelenting forward pressure, his grinding wrestling ability, and his determination may be too much for the Argentinian fighter, unless Ponzinibbio can find a way to flush him with a flying knee or spinning elbow early in this fight.
Harris opened -155 for this fight and has now been bet into an underdog position.
UFC Vegas 101 Best Bet: Carlston Harris +105
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Under -130 after opening Over -140!
Cesar Almeida -300 vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan +240
Middleweight (185 pounds)
Almeida is a world-class kickboxing talent. In his day, he defeated Alex ‘Potan’ Pereira in one of three fights they faced against one another, which is why the UFC brought him in to compete.
Now training with Pereira in Connecticut under the watchful eye of Glover Teixeira, Almeida is learning how to ward off the grappling advances of mixed martial arts adversaries looking to catch him where he is least versed.
In Alhassan, we have a man who is seemingly carved out of granite. At 39, Alhassan has the body, power and explosivity of a man much younger, but with the experience of having been a UFC fighter for eight years. He holds a 6-6-1 UFC record, but as a middleweight, he is 2-3-1 in his last six bouts.
The three-year age advantage, the three-inch height advantage and the one-inch reach advantage for Almeida, together with his training with Pereira, explain the price on Almeida. Though it’s important to note that he opened -210 in this fight.
A black belt in Judo, Alhassan advantages besides the grappling game include the fact that he’s been in with a higher caliber of UFC opponent, he holds a vast edge in experience, and Alhassan owns the power advantage, especially early in this fight.
Alhassan, a man in desperation mode to remain relevant in this organization, needs simply to land one blunt force trauma-inducing strike/kick, and this fight could be over.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Over -150
My ‘Bout Business Podcast’ fires fresh for 2025 and drops mid-day Friday PT. Accessit at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities!
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