Tennis picks & predictions today for Day 4 of the 2025 Australian Open:
The 2025 Australian Open has already given us some fun matches, but the best is yet to come. The top WTA players in the world are in Melbourne for the season’s first major, and we’re not far from the portion of the tournament in which every match will feature household names. With that in mind, keep reading for my favorite selections for Day 4 of the matches on the women’s side, which will be played on Tuesday, January 14th and Wednesday, January 15th for those of us in the United States. The day will feature players like Aryna Sabalenka, Qinwen Zheng, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula, so you won’t want to miss out on it. Also, I have four best bets on the men’s side for those that are interested.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story before matches start — or regularly checking the picks page. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line movement and add to my card a few hours before matches begin. That said, I’ll add picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles after I do. Gill Alexander, who does a great job of handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game (M-F from 10:00 am ET to 12:00 pm ET), also posts his tennis picks to the picks page!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 39-29 (+7.45 units)
Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Diana Shnaider
I had Tomljanovic to win a set in her meeting with Ashlyn Krueger last match, but the Australian was actually able to win that one outright. Now, I get another chance to back the talented 31-year-old as a big underdog. Tomljanovic has never been higher than No. 32 in the world, but she has been a top-20 talent for quite some time. And she said herself recently that nobody wants to see her in a draw. That’s especially true in Melbourne.
Shnaider is a very good player herself. The powerful lefty went 42-21 in the 2024 season, and she already has a winning record this season. But Shnaider hasn’t quite had her Grand Slam breakthrough yet, so we really don’t know exactly how she’ll handle nerves on tennis’ biggest stages. And playing against an Australian player in Australia will definitely test her mental game.
Shnaider doesn’t hold much of anything back from the baseline. She tries to slap winners whenever she gets a chance. But if she’s rattled by the atmosphere, her big swings could quickly turn into bad misses. And while Tomljanovic likes to be aggressive, she can flip a switch and try to prolong rallies. She did that against Krueger and did her best to let the American beat herself.
Tomljanovic just needs to find a way to hit her spots on her serve. Throughout her career, the serve has been a disappointing shot, despite the fact that it looks quite good when she has the ball on her racquet. But I anticipate Tomljanovic having a little extra power thanks to the crowd, and I don’t think she’ll want to go out without a fight. So, at plus-money odds, I’m grabbing her to win a set. Shnaider has lost sets to lesser players, in more favorable environments, in recent weeks.
Bet: Tomjlanovic +1.5 Sets (+105)
RELATED: Check out my four men’s side best bets for Day 4 action at the Australian Open!
Naomi Osaka vs. Karolina Muchova
Osaka has had a weird start to the 2025 season. She looked awesome in Auckland before having to retire with a one-set lead against Clara Tauson in the finals. But that match made me question her heading into this tournament, as you have to be very injured to leave the court with a lead. Then, Osaka didn’t look great in a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 win over Caroline Garcia, who hasn’t been a factor at the WTA level in a while. Osaka also just hasn’t played at her slam-winning level since leaving the sport, and she’s going to need to find that against Muchova. The Czech is a top-five player in the world, even if her ranking doesn’t say so.
Muchova is just good at absolutely everything on the court, so she should be able to pick at Osaka’s weaknesses. The main one is the movement. Muchova is good at mixing up her pace and throwing in all sorts of shots to catch her opponents off guard. Well, she should be able to do that a bunch against Osaka.
Muchova also happened to cover a 3.5-game spread against Osaka at last year’s US Open, and she also did so in a win in Madrid back in 2021. I just view this as a bad matchup for Osaka, so I’m laying the games. But I will acknowledge that Osaka’s very best is good enough to hang around against Muchova’s. I just need to see that level from Osaka before believing it.
Bet: Muchova -3.5 Games (-115)
Added Plays
I can’t guarantee there will be more picks here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every couple of hours. I’ll add my additional plays there and then toss them in this story after.
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
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