As good as the Buffalo Bills have been in recent seasons, including five straight playoff appearances and four straight AFC East titles, they have not made it to the Super Bowl and only have one AFC Championship Game appearance in that span. And, as it turns out, they’ll be looking for revenge from 2021 when they lost 38-24 to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs are appearing in their seventh straight AFC Championship Game and they are 4-2 in the previous six, including three Super Bowl wins. Kansas City is vying to be the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls. Before they get the chance to make history, they’ll have to win on Sunday night.
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How To Watch Bills vs. Chiefs
When: Sunday, January 26th at 6:30 p.m. ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO
Channel: CBS/Paramount+
Bills vs. Chiefs Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, January 20th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chiefs -125, Bills +105
Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-115), Bills +1.5 (-105)
Total: Over 47.5 (-110), Under 47.5 (-110)
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Bills vs. Chiefs Analysis
There are a lot of wins between these two teams, 31 of them to be exact, but we go into the AFC Title Game with questions on both sides. The Chiefs secured the No. 1 seed by going 15-2, but one of their losses was to the Bills. Kansas City’s unimpressive margin of victory in most weeks also left a lot of people wondering just how good they actually were.
Meanwhile, the Bills just beat the Ravens, but it was hardly pretty. Buffalo gave up over seven yards per play, but did force three turnovers and benefited from Mark Andrews having frozen hands on a very cold day in Western New York. Had that game gone to overtime, who knows what would have happened, but the Ravens outgained the Bills by more than 140 yards and converted seven of their 10 third-down attempts.
The Chiefs got outgained by 124 yards and a full yard per play against the Texans, so both teams will have to play better this week. The one that does is likely the one moving on to the Super Bowl.
So which one do we trust? Well, the first data point of the season may be able to shed some light. The Bills won 30-21, delivering the Chiefs their first loss of the season. Buffalo had a 107-yard edge, but also ran 71 plays to KC’s 52 in order to get it. The Bills had 5.2 yards per play to 5.0 for the Chiefs. Both teams had long scoring drives, as there were eight total in the game and all but one was at least 62 yards. So, it was a methodical effort for both offenses.
It is crazy to think that KC was actually outgained on a per-play basis this season. However, one thing that did change during the season is that the last game with a Patrick Mahomes interception was the game against the Bills when he threw two. He finished the regular season with six straight games without one and did not throw one last week, though he did only throw for 177 yards.
Mahomes had 11 interceptions in his first 10 games, including nine in his first seven, before he started taking better care of the ball. In a game where the gap between the two teams is very small, it may come down to a turnover or special teams play. Allen only has six interceptions to his name and only one in his last seven games.
Bills vs. Chiefs Player Props
Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 Completions (-120)
The Bills are eighth in Rush EPA since Week 10 and were actually fifth before last week’s effort against Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. I would say that Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco are not Derrick Henry.
Since Week 10, which I’m using because it’s the second half of the season, and with the two playoff games factored in, the Bills are 23rd in Dropback EPA and 26th in Dropback Success Rate against. Mahomes has only averaged 24.8 completions per playoff game in his career, going over this number in 10 of 19 playoff starts. I do expect him to be throwing at a higher rate given the matchup here, so I like the Over on completions.
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions (-119)
This is correlated with the Mahomes completions prop. If he’s going to go Over that total, then Kelce is going to be a big factor. Kelce has averaged 7.5 receptions per game in the playoffs with the Chiefs and had seven catches on eight targets last week. He’s actually gone over this number in eight of the last 10 playoff games. He’s not the player he once was, but he’s Mahomes’ most-trusted option in games of this magnitude.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer article for Bills vs. Chiefs picks!
Bills vs. Chiefs Pick
Two of the game’s top QBs will be on the field, but these are two methodical and deliberate offenses. Buffalo’s +24 turnover differential, including a +14 in the fumble department, is a big reason why they’ve been able to reach the heights that they have. The Chiefs stopped turning the ball over a lot later in the year and should protect it well here also.
But, this is simply not an explosive KC offense. They only managed 5.1 yards per play during the regular season and had 4.2 YPP against Houston. I think the points we get here come on long scoring drives, much like what we saw earlier in the season, but with cooler weather conditions and more on the line.
Pick: Under 47.5
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