2026 CFP National Championship:
Little pieces of confetti are probably still falling from the ceiling at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, but the focus now shifts to the 2026 CFP National Championship and the odds to win college football’s most coveted prize.
The first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff was a success in some ways and a failure in others. We don’t know if the NCAA will be taking a deep look at the format and the way that seeding is done, but we can at least get a lay of the land as to where the odds board sits just about a year in advance of the game.
Here are the 2026 CFP National Championship Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of January 21, 2025:
- Ohio State +450
- Texas +500
- Georgia +550
- Oregon +750
- Penn State +900
- Alabama +1200
- Notre Dame +1600
- Clemson +2000
- Tennessee +2000
- LSU +2000
- Ole Miss +2500
- Miami (FL) +2500
- Michigan +3000
- Texas A&M +3500
- South Carolina +4000
- Florida +6000
- USC +7000
- Oklahoma +7000
- Auburn +8000
- SMU +8000
- Arizona State +9000
- Kansas State +9000
- Colorado +10000
- North Carolina +10000
- Louisville +10000
- Florida State +10000
- Utah +12000
- Iowa State +12000
- BYU +15000
- Nebraska +15000
- Indiana +15000
- Virginia Tech +15000
- Boise State +20000
- Arkansas +20000
- Missouri +20000
- Iowa +20000
- Illinois +20000
- All others +25000 or higher
The champion will come from one of those listed, but all of the playoff teams are not there with the highest-ranked Group of Five program getting into the expanded postseason. You can look for those and maybe see if you can pick that team out, but that team will likely be a one-and-done like Boise State was. And likely not ranked No. 3 again anytime soon.
You’re tying money up for a really long time with a wager like this, so consider that fact as you think about what the future might hold.
For now, here are a couple of teams that would be on my shortlist:
Texas Tech +30000: One of those “or higher” teams on my radar is Texas Tech. The Red Raiders rank No. 3 at time of publish in 247 Sports’ 2025 Transfer Portal Class rankings and 43rd in the recruiting class for incoming freshmen. That does rank sixth in the Big 12, but they were still in the running to win the conference during the final weekend. It would have taken a win and several other miracles, but still.
Arizona State went from 3-9 in 2023 to taking Texas to overtime in the CFP Quarterfinals and they were a 4th-and-20 zero blitz away from winning. Texas Tech pulled in seven 247 Sports’ four-star recruits in the portal. The other 15 teams pulled in six of them combined.
Similarly, TCU at +25000 could be a really good value play as well. They have the highest recruiting score for their incoming class per 247. Remember, somebody from the Big 12 has to make the CFP and there are a lot of ways you can manipulate a big price like this to lock up some profit.
Texas Tech and TCU both play a fifth road game in league action, so that’s a bit of a drag, but I don’t see a lot of separation in the conference again next season.
Louisville +10000: Like the Big 12, somebody has to represent the ACC and why not Louisville? Clemson has finally seen the light of day with regards to the portal party, but they were extremely fortunate to get in this past season. SMU is losing a lot of talent from this year’s CFP qualifier. Florida State hit rock bottom and it’ll take some time to climb out. Miami has to replace Cam Ward, among others.
The Cardinals lost one-score games to Notre Dame, SMU, and Miami. They beat Clemson on the road and absolutely pummeled Kentucky in Lexington. I think they have one of the biggest portal upgrades at QB going from Tyler Shough to Miller Moss. I was never really a Shough fan, even though he played really well for Jeff Brohm this past campaign. It makes me very excited about what Moss can do.
The Cardinals do have a tough schedule with roadies at Miami, Pitt, SMU, and Virginia Tech, but they are catching a couple of those teams with extremely heavy losses.
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