NFL First TD Scorer Stats and Picks for the AFC and NFC Championship Games

NFL First TD Scorer:

Four teams remain standing in the NFL Playoffs. That means that we only have three games left to go for this season. That means only three more chances to bet into the First Touchdown Scorer market. It will be a popular bet in the Super Bowl for sure, but it will be a market that gets a lot of attention this weekend as well.

Our four teams left standing rank second (Eagles), 11th (Chiefs), 14th (Commanders), and 18th (Bills) in terms of success rates. The Ravens were just bounced after leading in this department most of the season and the Lions bowed out of the postseason with the third-best rate of scoring the first TD. It is not a prerequisite for success, but it sure makes life a lot easier.

Link to the First Touchdown Tracker.

Divisional Round Results:

QB: PHI (Hurts)

RB: BUF (Davis), KC (Hunt), WAS (Robinson Jr.)

WR: None

TE: None

Wild Card Weekend Results:

QB: None

RB: BUF (Cook)

WR: PHI (Dotson), WAS (D. Brown)

TE: None

Bye: KC

2024-25 Results for Remaining Playoff Teams

Trends/nuggets for the four teams:

Eagles: We had Hurts (+475) in the article last week; it was his first time on the sheet since Week 14, though he did miss two games in there. The Eagles have scored the first TD in seven straight and have scored on their first possession in four of their last five games.

Chiefs: In games where the starters are not sitting, KC has scored first in seven straight. They did not score a TD in Week 18 against the Broncos, but have scored first in every other game, including last week with Kareem Hunt. It did take a while, though. The Chiefs started the season 0/4 and were 3/10 before this current run. 

Commanders: This team is like throwing darts. Robinson Jr (7) leads the team, but last week represented his first team TD since Week 13. They’ve had six different players in the last six games and seven different players in the last eight games.

Bills: With another RB first TD last week, the Bills still haven’t had a WR/TE first TD since Week 9 and haven’t had anything other than QB/RB since Week 10 (Taron Johnson D/ST). The Bills have not scored first in either playoff game and have only scored first in three of their last eight games.

Let’s get to the Conference Championship Games action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.

NFL Divisional Round Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024

Commanders (52.6%) at Eagles (73.7%) – Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

Bills (47.4%) at Chiefs (55.6%) – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first TD scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.

NFC Championship Game First Touchdown Predictions

Lines current at time of publish

Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.

Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts (+500), Dallas Goedert (+1600)

Saquon Barkley hasn’t scored first for the Eagles since Week 16, though he did sit out the Week 18 game, so the drought isn’t as long as it seems. Nevertheless, he’s only scored the first TD five times and four of them were in the first eight games, so he went six weeks between first team TDs. With that, I’ll take a shot on Hurts, who scored first last week and could very well replicate it again. Hurts had the team’s first TD in the Week 11 win and Barkley had the team’s first TD in the Week 16 loss.

The Commanders were tied for the third-fewest receptions allowed to tight ends during the regular season, but also tied for the fifth-most touchdowns allowed. Goedert has eight catches and 10 targets in the two playoff games, including a TD against the Packers. He’s been popular, especially when you consider that Hurts only has 41 pass attempts and 28 completions in those games.

AFC Championship Game First Touchdown Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs: Xavier Worthy (+1300) / Buffalo Bills: James Cook (+900)

I have a higher degree of confidence in Philly in the first game than I do in either team here, so I’ll split the difference and pick a player from each team. Starting with the Chiefs, Worthy had the highest snap share of any skill player last week at 82%. Kareem Hunt played 24 snaps (47%) and Isiah Pacheco only played 16 (31%). Aside from Patrick Mahomes (Week 16) and the No TD game in Week 18, a WR/TE had the team’s first TD from Week 9 up until last week. So, Worthy is my pick from that group.

On the Bills side, I mentioned above that you have to go back to Week 9 to find the last WR on this list. In that span, Ray Davis has three, Josh Allen has three, and James Cook has two. Davis only had six offensive snaps to Cook’s 32 against the Ravens. Cook had 34 to Davis’ nine against the Broncos. I know Davis at 25/1 looks attractive, but I like Cook at 9/1 over Allen at 7/1.

Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.

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