Super Bowl prop betting strategy
Prop bets and parlay wagers seemingly increase in volume every single day and you can bet that there are going to be hundreds of millions of them across the sports betting world for Super Bowl LIX.
In some ways, it makes the Super Bowl a little less special, as bettors in the old days used to line up at the Westgate Superbook or Leroy’s or some other shop in Las Vegas awaiting the release of the prop lines. Of course, that’s when betting was restricted to Sin City and faraway places. It’s pretty much a free-for-all now and that includes prop offerings on pretty much every regular season game, let alone playoff matchups.
The ease and accessibility of betting props, whether that means searching for them yourself with single bets, throwing in a bet on a pre-made parlay at your sportsbook of choice, or putting together your own parlay, means that bettors don’t really need a crash course in what they mean or how to find them.
However, there are some prop betting strategies that are relevant throughout the year and especially for the Super Bowl. Here are some things to keep in mind:
Shop Around for the Best Price
I simply cannot stress this one enough. Each sportsbook has its own needs and its own clientele, so there will be lines and odds differences across the board. You want to get the best odds and the best line that you can find and that means shopping around.
The example I always like to give is that you like a certain brand of jeans. They are $34.99 at one place, $29.99 at another place, and $39.99 at another. Where are you most likely to buy them? The place with the best price, right?
Sure, sometimes convenience comes into play and if you are already shopping at the place where they are $34.99, you’ll just shrug off the five-dollar difference. With sports betting, however, the ease and convenience of apps, and also the promotions and bonuses for new depositors at Super Bowl time, why not just take the extra few minutes and sign up with a new sportsbook if it has the best line on a prop bet you like?
Nearly all of the most common sportsbooks allow you to see their lines in the app or on the website before you ever sign up and deposit. Obvious differences like Over 84.5 Rushing Yards vs. Over 81.5 Rushing Yards are one thing, and you will find those. These are pretty easy and pretty self-explanatory. Why bet Over 84.5 Rushing Yards when you can bet Over 81.5 Rushing Yards?
But, it is also important to understand the price difference in the vig. At -110, your break-even percentage is 52.38%, so you need to hit that percentage in order to break even on your wagers given the “Bet $11 to win $10” vig. If you bump that to -115, your break-even percentage increases to 53.49% given the “Bet $11.50 to win $10” vig. The difference in just five cents of vig requires you to win an extra bet out of every 100 just to break even.
At -120, your break-even percentage becomes 54.55%. At -125, it becomes 55.56% and so on.
That doesn’t sound like a lot, but over the long-term picture regarding your bankroll as a sports bettor, it will add up. Shopping around for the best lines AND the best odds is critical in all settings, but the Super Bowl is a prime example of the reasons why.
Leverage Odds Boosts and Bonuses
The sports betting industry is extremely competitive and that can sometimes provide a really good opportunity for the consumer. Sportsbooks will offer new sign-up bonuses or reload bonuses at this time of the year because they want to write as much action as possible. It is the single biggest betting event of the year and the best chance to impress shareholders, stakeholders, traders, bosses, and everybody with a piece of the pie.
As a result, sportsbooks will come up with some creative offers or alternative pricing. There may be free bets or match bets on players to score a touchdown or some kind of bet insurance to mitigate risk and loss. In the above example about that pair of jeans, if you see a coupon that saves you some money or maybe includes a buy one, get one offer, are you likely to use it?
That doesn’t mean that all odds boosts, bonuses, and offers are going to be +EV, or positive expected value. However, it does mean that some of those opportunities may be out there and you can put yourself into a better spot than most by utilizing some of those Super Bowl sweeteners.
Avoid Overexposure / Think About “Game State”
I like to group these two concepts together because they go hand-in-hand. You might have really strong opinions about the side that you like in Super Bowl LIX. You’ve bet the spread. You’ve bet the moneyline. You’ve bet the Over QB Passing Yards and Passing Touchdowns. You’ve bet the Over WR1 Passing Yards and Passing Touchdowns.
But, what if you’re wrong? What if your handicap on the game falls flat? What if the QB gets hurt in the first quarter? That would be a prime example of overexposure. You are tying yourself to one outcome in that game and you can have a really, really bad evening if that outcome doesn’t come to fruition. Remember Super Bowl LIII between the Patriots and Rams? That game had a total of 55.5 and ended 13-3. It can happen.
Too many bettors make the mistake of getting tunnel vision and load up on player props for the side that they like. Instead, think about the “Game State”. If you are right and the team that you like plays really well and wins comfortably, they may not be throwing the football in the second half. That wide receiver may just be out there running cardio or blocking for the run game. We’ve certainly seen the team with the lead get very conservative in the second half of the most important game of the season.
So, I’d encourage you to think about what the Game State might be. If it does end up being a blowout and you are right, then the other team will spend the second half throwing the football. Maybe you’d want to bet their QB Over Passing Attempts or their WR1 Over on Receptions. Similarly, your team may be running the football, which would bring the RB1 Over on Rush Attempts into the mix.
That’s not to say that you don’t want some potential correlation in your props and game expectations. If you are really convinced it will be either a high-scoring or a low-scoring game, your prop portfolio may want to reflect that. You just don’t want a really high risk of ruin by having the wrong handicap.
The beauty of a large prop catalog is to be able to diversify your wagers, giving you the chance to win as many as possible based on the Game State that you expect to see.
Minuses (-) Over Pluses (+)
In the era of Same-Game Parlays (SGP) and sports betting lottery tickets, bettors are all looking for the easiest way to bet a little to win a lot. Plus-money prop bets can look very enticing, but you have to think about the probability and the possibility that those things occur.
Overtime is the biggest one. Most Super Bowls end in one-score games. Some of them don’t, but the thought certainly has to cross your mind that the Super Bowl, with allegedly the two best teams, could go to overtime.
There are 272 regular season NFL games. A total of 16 went to overtime. That is 5.9% of the games. If we include the 12 postseason games to this point, none of which went to OT, 5.6% of the games this season have been tied at the end of the fourth quarter.
A line of +1100 on ‘Yes’ for Overtime (DraftKings as of Monday Jan. 27) carries an implied probability of 8.33%, which is not in line with the rate of overtime games and the 2 of 58 (3.4%) we’ve had in Super Bowls. There is a reason why the ‘No’ is priced much higher than that. Yes, it happened last year. Yes, the Super Bowl LIX line is close. That doesn’t mean history will repeat itself.
Generally speaking, it is better to have a “minus price” than a “plus price” in props. Only one guy can score the first touchdown. Only one guy can be the MVP, and it is rarely a non-quarterback. By the very nature of props, you are more likely to add to your bankroll betting more to win less (minus) than less to win more (plus).
The plus prices are less indicative of the true odds of an event happening, whereas the minus prices are usually a much better barometer. This is also true of parlaying a bunch of props. Don’t take money out of your wallet by going 6-2 on props that would have netted a positive return as straight bets, but net absolutely nothing on a parlay.
And, yes, I’m fun at parties. Sort of. If you want to spray some fun-money bets, it’s the Super Bowl. I get it. But, I do encourage you to look long and hard at your prop bets and consider these strategies and others you find helpful for the Big Game.
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