Canada vs. Finland 4 Nations Face Off Prediction and Preview:
Here are my best bets for Saturday’s Canada vs. Finland matchup in the 4 Nations Face Off.
Canada (-410, 6.5) vs Finland
1 p.m. ET
If Canada is going to want a rematch against Team USA in the championship game on Thursday, they have little margin for error when they face off against Finland in the opening game at TD Garden on Monday. Canada, Finland and Sweden are all tied with two points. A win by either Canada or Finland in regulation earns them a spot in the final. An overtime win or shootout win opens the door to Sweden if they could defeat Team USA in regulation, Monday night (8 p.m. ET, TNT, Sportsnet).
On Sunday, Canadian head coach Jon Cooper said that the coaching staff would meet Sunday evening and have not decided on if Jordan Binnington will get his third consecutive start for Canada or if they will turn to Aidan Hill (don’t consider Samuel Montembeault an option) for this must-win game. Finland will once again turn to Kevin Lankinen, who started in the win over Sweden on Saturday. The other big question surrounding Canada is the availability of defenseman Cale Makar who missed the game against the US (flu). Makar was on the ice for Canada’s practice Sunday in Boston and as he put it, “I’m going to do everything I can to play tomorrow (Monday).
Now, how to go about wagering on this game. The goal in the first ten minutes (Yes) prop and the first period Over 1.5 goals has cashed in all four games of the tournament. I am also going to target a prop that is cashing at 76% this NHL season. In the 17 games this season with a favorite -400 or more, the underdog has scored a goal in 13 of the games. I will be on Finland Over ½ goal in the first period, in addition to the first period Over (1.5 goals) and then will also throw in both teams to score in the opening 20 minutes. If you are going to play a side in this game, it has to be Finland.
When it comes to player props, I do like Cale Makar to record at least one assist at plus money. His return to the blueline for Canada should be a big boost to their offense. I do believe Nathan MacKinnon will score for Canada on Monday, but because I have him to lead Canada in goals (+550) and he is currently tied for the team lead (1), his anytime goal price (+140) has no value. I do think Canada’s Brayden Point will get an elevated role today and playing him at Over ½ point (-108) does have value.
For Team Finland, I would look at Aleksander Barkov Over ½ assist.
NHL Predictions: Goal in 1st 10 Minutes/Yes (-160) – 1 unit
1st Period Both Teams to Score (+180) – ½ unit
1st Period Over 1.5 goals (-140) – 1 unit
Cale Makar Over ½ assist (+104) – ¼ unit
Brayden Point Over ½ point (-108) – ¼ unit
Aleksander Barkov Over ½ assist (+102) – ¼ unit
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