Arizona Diamondbacks 2025 preview
Baseball is a funny game. I would argue that the 2024 version of the Arizona Diamondbacks was objectively better than the 2023 version. Arizona missed the playoffs last season and went to the World Series the previous season. The 2023 team finished 84-78, but snuck into the playoffs and disposed of the Brewers, Dodgers, and Phillies before falling to the Rangers in five games.
The 2024 team went 89-73. Most notably, while the 2023 team had a -15 run differential, the 2024 team had a +98 run differential. But, for the sixth time in seven seasons and 11th time in 13 seasons, the Diamondbacks were left out of the postseason. The 89 wins were also the franchise’s most since 2017 and the third-most since 2007.
One important development came out of last season, though. The fan base responded. The Diamondbacks crossed the 2.3 million mark in attendance for the first time since 2008. And ownership responded in kind, signing Arizona native Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $210 million deal. That is the largest deal in team history and a strong centerpiece to an offseason that also included a trade for Josh Naylor.
Aside from those two moves, the Snakes are ready to run it back with a very similar roster, including budding superstar Corbin Carroll and two-time top-five Cy Young Award finisher Zac Gallen. For a team that led baseball in runs scored with 44 more than anybody else, but finished 27th in ERA, it could be a really high-variance season.
2025 Arizona Diamondbacks Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 18)
World Series: +2500
NL Pennant: +1300
NL West: +550
Win Total: 86.5 (-120/+100)
Make Playoffs: Yes -125 / No +105
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview: Offense
It was a truly remarkable season on offense for the Diamondbacks. They scored 886 runs to blow away their highest total in the 2000s. The only season higher was back in 1999, but a lot has changed since then, including the league’s PED policy. The only other times the D-Backs even exceeded 800 runs scored were 2019, 2017, 2002, and 2001.
The most amazing thing about their run-scoring output is that Carroll was bad for most of the season. When all was said and done, he batted .231/.322/.428 with a .325 wOBA and a 107 wRC+, so he was only 7% better than the league average with the bat. To add more context, Carroll had a .704 OPS on March 31 after four games. He didn’t cross .700 again until August 18. From August 18 through the end of the season, Carroll slashed .267/.360/.555 and hit 10 of his 22 homers. That strong finish has to feel like a positive heading into this season. And, despite the down year, he still scored 121 runs, 28 more than anybody else.
But, I do have concerns. The Diamondbacks slashed .285/.364/.487 with RISP, posting a .359 wOBA and a 130 wRC+. Their wOBA in that key situational split was 13 points higher than anybody else (Mets) and the highest single-season wOBA with RISP since the Juiced Ball season of 2019. This wasn’t a prolific power offense either. Ketel Marte hit 36 homers and had an enormous year at the plate. Eugenio Suarez hit 30. Christian Walker and Joc Pederson combined for 49 long balls and they’re both gone.
So, we’ve got a drop in power production coupled with some natural regression with RISP. That’s why the Diamondbacks went out and got Naylor, as he hit 31 homers for the Guardians last season, but he had hit 37 combined over the previous two seasons in nearly 1,000 plate appearances and actually had a lower Hard Hit% than those two years with a spike in ground balls. I don’t think he’s a 30-homer guy again and neither does Cleveland, apparently.
Also, I’m not entirely sure what happened or why, but the Diamondbacks led baseball in wOBA with a .345 mark at home, batting .276/.347/.451. They scored 47 more runs at home than any other team, even though they only hit 93 HR (12th) at home out of their 211 total (5th). The 2023 D-Backs batted .260/.330/.425 at home with a .326 wOBA and finished 15th in runs scored with 365. They improved year-over-year by 140 runs and by 92 at home.
This isn’t a conspiracy theory. It may just be the variance of baseball, the impact of the crowd, the settings on the humidor, or something else…
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview: Pitching
Because the pitching staff was negatively impacted as well, the Diamondbacks staff had a 4.68 ERA at home with a 3.97 FIP and a 4.06 xFIP. Compare that to a 4.18 ERA with a 3.85 FIP and a 4.09 xFIP at home in 2023. FIP and xFIP are widely regarded as more reliable pitching metrics than ERA, which takes into account defense and batted ball fortune or misfortune. For Arizona to effectively be the same pitching staff by FIP and xFIP at home, but have an ERA a half-run higher is interesting.
The average fly ball distance was only one foot farther (322 to 321) from 2024 to 2023 at Chase Field, so that doesn’t necessarily point me towards a change to the humidor settings, but I do think that’s one plausible scenario. It could have also just been an all-around outlier RISP season at Chase Field, as the pitching staff gave up a .268/.339/.464 slash in that situation. That said, they allowed a .279/.355/.438 slash in 2023, so I don’t think that was it. Something may have been afoot. It may just be the variance of baseball. But I’ll be keeping a close eye as this season gets going.
Burnes is a really nice piece to add to this rotation. Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez have missed a lot of time and Brandon Pfaadt’s command comes and goes. Jordan Montgomery was a bust last season, but I’ve long been a Montgomery fan and think last season was just an outlier for him. He didn’t sign until March 29 and had a hurried lead-up to the season with two starts at Triple-A Reno with just 7.2 innings of work. I don’t think it’s fair at all to judge him for that.
With that in mind, I could make an argument that this is the highest-upside rotation in the NL. Burnes is a career 3.19 ERA guy with a 3.21 FIP and he’s made at least 32 starts in each of the last three seasons. If his K% can bounce back, he adds a dynamic that this rotation and this pitching staff as a whole has been lacking.
I harped on Gallen’s 46% Hard Hit% and 9.2% Barrel% from 2023 going into last season. He did experience some regression with a 0.18-point rise in ERA, but he normalized his contact management stats and remained very effective. Kelly was limited to 13 starts and had a 4.94 FIP, but the 36-year-old has a little less pressure now with a deeper rotation and missed time with a teres major strain in his shoulder that hopefully won’t lead to problems this season.
Rodriguez has had a tumultuous three-season run with personal problems and injuries. His first season on a four-year, $80M deal was a bust, but he’s been an effective arm throughout his career. Pfaadt was a big offender in terms of the team’s ERA-FIP difference, as he had a 4.71 ERA with a 3.61 FIP. He stayed healthy and made 32 starts, but struggled to strand runners and had a bad second half.
This rotation has a high floor with Burnes and Gallen. If healthy, and if Montgomery returns to form, they’re in the running for the best rotation in the NL. If it’s just Burnes and Gallen, this might be a slightly above-average group with a shaky bullpen and an offense ripe for regression.
Arizona Diamondbacks Player to Watch
SP Brandon Pfaadt
I thought one of the more shocking offseason coaching decisions was that the Diamondbacks fired Brent Strom. The underlying metrics looked pretty solid in terms of FIP, xFIP, and xERA, despite all of the injuries and losses. Pfaadt now falls under the tutelage of Brian Kaplan, who was the assistant pitching coach and Director of Pitching for the Phillies. He’s also a co-founder of Cressey Sports Performance, a very popular training facility for pitchers. It sure looks like the Diamondbacks want to promote healthy habits and throwing mechanics.
But what impact will Kaplan have on pitch usage and adjustments? Take Pfaadt as an example of somebody who needs some optimization. In 277.2 innings at the MLB level, he’s allowed 46 home runs. He’s struck out over a batter per inning with a solid walk rate, but he’s struggled badly with command from the stretch (.377 wOBA with RISP) and lefties own him with a .287/.337/.492 slash.
From 2022-24, Kaplan’s Phillies were second in sinker usage. Under Strom, the D-Backs were 20th. Look for that change to come quickly for Pfaadt and others, not a bad idea, given that Arizona infielders were collectively fifth (+19) in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric.
Arizona Diamondbacks Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
I think this is a very solid ballclub all around. The starting staff could be excellent. The bullpen doesn’t look as bad as last season with a full year of A.J. Puk, if he stays healthy. I still think that the offense will have a very hard time replicating what it did last season, especially in the RISP department. They’ve also lost some noteworthy power production. So the fact that they are lined a few games below last season’s finishing record makes a lot of sense.
But, I do lean towards the Over with the Diamondbacks. What they did on offense came in a season when Carroll was awful for basically two-thirds of it. Naylor fits the offense well, though I’m skeptical of anybody who got to beat up on AL Central pitching. A lot of guys walk on this team and play good defense, which matters with what I believe will be a more sinker-heavy staff.
This isn’t a strong opinion, like most of them in the NL West, but that’s what happens with the big, bad Dodgers and three other really competent teams.
Lean: Over 86.5
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