San Francisco Giants 2025 preview
I did something different this year with the MLB season previews. I started at the end. Normally I go in alphabetical order through the divisions, beginning with the Baltimore Orioles and ending with the San Francisco Giants. This season, I decided to start at the back, so to speak, to change things up a little bit.
Did you need to know that? Nah, probably not, but there are a lot of things you need to know about the Giants. It was a fascinating offseason, not because of player movement or a roster overhaul, but because of a front office overhaul. Giants legend Gerald Dempsey “Buster” Posey was named the President of Baseball Operations after Farhan Zaidi was fired.
To most, I’m not sure how big of a news item that would be, outside of an organization bringing back one of its most celebrated and accomplished players, but it represents a major change for the Giants organization. Posey was part of a 30-member ownership group and was on the board of directors for a little over two years before getting his new title.
Posey isn’t cut from the same cloth as most high-level execs around baseball, as many have criticized the Ivy Invasion, with many jobs going to quants, mathematicians, and modelers. The Astros, as progressive and analytical an organization as any, shifted their focus when they moved Jeff Bagwell, who believes analytics reports can be used as toilet paper, into a more prominent baseball ops role. The Giants fired Zaidi, the former A’s AGM under Billy Beane and Dodgers GM under Andrew Friedman, as an extremely well-accomplished and respected mind with more of a focus on the scientific and mathematical sides of baseball. After all, he’s a MIT grad with a degree in science, plus a PhD in economics from Cal Berkeley.
So, I’m extremely curious how this goes. I’m not saying that Posey is anti-sabermetrics or data in any way. But, he’s certainly not as into it as his predecessor was.
It is a new day by the Bay.
2025 San Francisco Giants Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 18)
World Series: +8000
NL Pennant: +3500
NL West: +1800
Win Total: 80.5 (-110/-110)
Make Playoffs: Yes +205 / No -250
San Francisco Giants Preview: Offense
A built-in handicap for the Giants needs to be considered heading into every season. The marine air that cuts down fly balls at Oracle Park suppresses offensive numbers year in and year out. The Giants were 22nd in wOBA at home at .302 and 14th in wOBA on the road at .308. Zaidi and his staff really pushed hard for Giants hitters to elevate the baseball and be part of the league-wide launch angle craze.
In 2018, the final year without Zaidi, the Giants had a 33.3% FB%. By 2024, the Giants had a 40.1% FB%. Theoretically, hitting the ball in the air is better, especially if you can increase pull-side contact, which the Giants absolutely did, going from 38.3% in 2018 to as high as 42.9% (2020) during the Zaidi years. You can hit for more slugging percentage, which means that made contact has a better chance of going for doubles and homers as opposed to singles.
Alas, that approach may not be terribly conducive to playing 81 games a year in a place where the ball just doesn’t carry. During the Zaidi years (2019-24), the Giants finished 26th in average fly ball distance at home per Statcast. Only the A’s, Tigers, Mariners, and Guardians were worse. Not the company you want to keep on offense in any category.
So, I would expect a philosophical shift here. Pat Burrell was retained as the hitting coach, but he’s going to be getting different messaging from the front office now. Posey never had a FB% over 33.8% in his career and never hit more than 24 home runs. San Francisco has run back-to-back seasons with a K% of 24% or higher. I think the idea of making contact will be prioritized over all. I think we may see the Giants adopt more of a Cleveland Guardians-esque approach with more early-count swings to put balls in play and put pressure on the defense.
For a team that finished 17th in run scoring and 20th in batting average, time will tell if that approach is correct or if my guess is even correct. This is effectively the same lineup, just with a big-ticket free agent in Willy Adames added to the mix as a guy who belted 32 homers and stole 21 bases for the Brewers last season.
With Adames in the mix, Tyler Fitzgerald moves to second base, where only the Red Sox got worse offensive production last season. There are a lot of good hitters in this lineup, but the bad ones really crushed them. I still think they needed more than Adames, but he’s a terrific all-around player and they strengthened at two positions as a result. The position player depth is very thin entering the campaign, so health is even more important here.
San Francisco Giants Preview: Pitching
The Giants were a bridesmaid on the outskirts of the wedding photos in the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes. They were interested in Corbin Burnes, but talks never seemed all that serious. They didn’t engage much with Blake Snell, who was clearly second on the team in fWAR behind Logan Webb, despite only making 20 starts. But, they did bring in Mr. Kate Upton, as Justin Verlander’s age-42 season will be his first in the National League.
Another “acquisition” of sorts is Robbie Ray, who was limited to seven starts last season after missing nearly all of 2023 with Tommy John surgery and the subsequent recovery. Webb is as steady and durable as they come, having made 98 starts over the last three seasons. Everybody else in the rotation is toting a pretty thick folder of medical reports.
Ray is a worthwhile gamble with back-to-back seasons of 32 starts in 2021 and 2022 before a visit to Dr. Keith Meister. Verlander had his own visit with Meister in 2020 and missed the entire 2021 season. He had an incredible 2022 and a strong 2023 before bottoming out last season with a 5.48 ERA, the highest of his career with at least 12 innings pitched.
In theory, the marine air and the home-cooking conditions of San Francisco should help guys like Verlander and Ray, who have had home run bugaboos throughout their careers. While the Giants have tried to lift the ball on offense, they’ve tried to paint Rawlings green with grass stains on the pitching side. Last year’s pitching staff led the league in GB% by 2.5% over the Phillies at 48.4%. They also had the fourth-highest BABIP against at .303. Another area where Adames should help, but it can be a risky business.
The trade-off, of course, is that the Giants were third in HR/9 allowed. Despite the ability to limit homers, they finished 19th in ERA, but sixth in FIP. Growth from the pitching staff may very well be contingent on youngster Kyle Harrison and hard-throwing reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks, who is another worm-burner with a career 57.2% GB%, but he only worked 109.2 innings and made just 20 starts last season.
The Opening Day bullpen projects to include a set of holdovers from last season, not a bad thing with a unit that finished sixth in FIP among relief corps. That said, rubber-armed left-hander Taylor Rogers was traded to the Reds in late January, so he’ll no longer be pitching alongside his brother, Tyler, who was the team’s second-most valuable relief arm behind Ryan Walker last season.
San Francisco Giants Player to Watch
OF Jung Hoo Lee
I would be exaggerating to call this a make-or-break year for the 26-year-old Lee, who made his MLB debut last season after seven outstanding seasons in the KBO. Lee’s first season stateside ended abruptly when he suffered a dislocated shoulder after losing a collision with the outfield wall.
Lee only hit .262/.310/.331 with a .284 wOBA in his 158 plate appearances, but his elite contact skills were on display with an 8.2% K%. His 41% Hard Hit% should have produced some better results, but he did hit a ton of balls on the ground and didn’t pull the ball at the rate he did for the Kiwoom Heroes.
Lee could be a really valuable player if he is able to add a little more pop and stay healthy. He’s a plus runner and defender and those are two good things because the Giants were -24 Defensive Runs Saved in CF, with Heliot Ramos accounting for -15 of them and -7 Outs Above Average. Lee’s CF defense returning is a big upgrade, especially with an uptick in fly balls coming thanks to Ray and Verlander.
San Francisco Giants Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
The odds for the Giants now look the same as the odds for the Giants entering last season, at least before they signed Snell. And they went 80-82, so it wound up being a pretty good number. They did go Under pretty much all numbers, and especially the increased win total line when Snell joined the roster.
They are clearly the fourth-best team in a division where the Rockies will continue to be a punching bag, the Dodgers are likely to set the pace, and the Padres and Diamondbacks likely to beat each other up in the Wild Card chase. The Giants are clearly a tier below those two teams, so this line feels fair yet again. Verlander is on a one-year pact and would be attractive to a contender, if healthy. Ray has another year left at $25 million, which makes trading him cost-prohibitive unless he’s healthy and really good.
This will be an improved defensive team with Adames, Fitzgerald moved to 2B, and Lee patrolling CF. Run prevention is important with a below average offense. I don’t have a strong lean one way or the other on the win total, but I could envision a scenario where Posey and some new ideas lead to a little bit of overachievement.
Slight Lean: Over 80.5
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