Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, February 20, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results:
-CLE-BKN UNDER 225.5
Several scheduling situations favor UNDER + Makinen Bettors Ratings projects UNDER
-CHICAGO (+12 at NYK)
UNDERDOGS have been good in h2h series + multiple extreme stats systems fade New York
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* UNDER the total is 92-54 (63%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4thGamein10+Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rdin8+Days game, in other words two pretty rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all nine games today
* Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 122-123 SU but 127-103-5 ATS (55.2%), including 90-54-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+3 vs LAL)
* MEMPHIS has won seven straight ATS versus Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-2.5 at IND)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
- Majority HANDLE on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 UNITS – ROI: -1.2%
- Majority NUMBER OF BETS on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 UNITS – ROI: -10%
- Majority HANDLE on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 UNITS – ROI: -16.3%
- Majority NUMBER OF BETS on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 UNITS – ROI: -1.8%
- Majority HANDLE on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 UNITS – ROI: +1.2%- Majority NUMBER OF BETS on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 UNITS – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the HANDLE was on the side of a HOME TEAM playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the HANDLE has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a VERY consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, CLEVELAND, LA CLIPPERS, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority HANDLE backing a HOME UNDERDOG in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, ATLANTA, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority HANDLE backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, ATLANTA, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority HANDLE groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with HANDLE groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, NE YORK, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in DIVISIONAL games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON
Here are some more specific MONEY LINE angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a MASSIVE disparity of success levels for majority groups on HANDLE when they back the HOME OR ROAD team on MONEY LINE wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and a ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and a ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – DENVER ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority HANDLE groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, a R.O.I. of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until somethings changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of HANDLE bettors were backing the UNDER in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking OVER’s. When any majority number have favored the UNDER option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and a R.O.I. of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-NYK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for NUMBER OF BETS majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (OVER or UNDER) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and a R.O.I. of +3% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CHA-DEN, PHX-SAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority HANDLE UNDER bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These UNDER majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-NYK
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing on 3+DaysRest are 47-25 SU & 42-27-3 ATS (60.9%) hosting teams playing a 3rdStraightRoad game over the L3 seasons.
2/20: DENVER vs. Charlotte
2/20: INDIANA vs. Memphis
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-16 vs CHA), INDIANA (+2.5 vs MEM)
* Teams playing on 3rdStraightHome game were 84-43 SU & 75-47-5 ATS (61.5%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the L2 seasons.
2/20: DENVER vs. Charlotte
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-16 vs CHA)
* Home teams on 3+DaysRest are 27-14 SU & 24-10-7 ATS (70.6%) versus teams playing on a 4thStraightRoad game over the L3 seasons.
2/20: DENVER vs. Charlotte
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-16 vs CHA)
* UNDER the total was 92-54 (63%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4thGamein10+Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rdin8+Days game, in other words two pretty rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all nine games today
* UNDER the total was 55-36 (60.4%) since start of last season when both teams in a NBA matchup were in the same 3rdin8+Days game scenario…two rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all nine games today
* UNDER the total was 28-13 (68.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rdStraightHome game versus a road team on 4thin10+Days scenario.
2/20: UNDER the total in DENVER-CHARLOTTE
2/20: UNDER the total in BROOKLYN-CLEVELAND
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-DEN (o/u at 230), CLE-BKN (o/u at 225.5)
* UNDER the total was 18-5 (78.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rdHomein8+Days game versus a road team on 4thin10+Days scenario.
2/20: UNDER the total in DENVER-CHARLOTTE
2/20: UNDER the total in BROOKLYN-CLEVELAND
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-DEN (o/u at 230), CLE-BKN (o/u at 225.5)
* UNDER the total was 13-1 (92.9%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 4thHomein10+Days game versus a road team on 3rdin8+Days scenario.
2/20: UNDER the total in BROOKLYN-CLEVELAND
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-BKN (o/u at 225.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 228-44 SU but just 126-140-6 ATS (47.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-16 vs CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, UNDER the total has gone 98-81 (54.7%). In non-conference games, OVER the total was 194-163 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 261-197 (57%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CLE-BKN (o/u at 225.5), CHI-NYK (o/u at 245), CHA-DEN (o/u at 230)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
2) Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 231-129 SU but 163-189-8 ATS (46.3%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-12 vs CHI)
Back-to-back scoring outburst could be the beginning of a trend
4) NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 71-54 SU & 66-57-2 ATS (53.7%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-16 vs CHA)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
5) Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 122-123 SU but 127-103-5 ATS (55.2%), including 90-54-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+3 vs LAL)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
7) NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 261-139 SU but just 171-217-12 ATS (44.1%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-12 vs CHI)
Unusual shooting performance systems
11) NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 286-249 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-NYK (o/u at 245), ORL-ATL (o/u at 222.5), LAC-MIL (o/u at 228.5)
12) NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 269-282 SU & 244-300-7 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-2.5 at IND)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 108-20 SU BUT 56-69-4 ATS (44.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): DENVER (-16 vs CHA)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5-points or more, going 66-18 SU & 47-35-2 ATS (57.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-13 at BKN)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 72-83 SU but 86-67-3 ATS (56.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+12 at NYK)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7-games or more become play against teams in general, going 230-279-3 ATS (45.2%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-130 SU & 69-86-5 ATS (44.5%).
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-16 vs CHA)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 54-71-1 ATS (43.2%) in the next game, including 23-38 ATS (37.7%) on the road over the L4 seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-16 vs CHA)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +2.5 (+3.0)
2. ATLANTA +1.5 (+2.1)
3. CHARLOTTE +16.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -2 (+2.0)
2. LA LAKERS -3 (+1.0)
3. BOSTON -7.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +12 (+2.9)
2. MILWAUKEE +2.5 (+2.4)
3. CHARLOTTE +16.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -13 (+0.9)
2. PHOENIX -2 (+0.7)
3. LA LAKERS -3 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-POR OVER 227 (+2.8)
2. CHA-DEN OVER 230 (+2.5)
3. MEM-IND OVER 251 (+2.3)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-ATL UNDER 222.5 (-2.7)
2. PHX-SAS UNDER 238 (-1.6)
3. CHI-NYK UNDER 245 (-1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +2.5 (+2.4)
2(tie). MILWAUKEE +2.5 (+1.8)
CHARLOTTE +16.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -13 (+3.5)
2. LA LAKERS -3 (+2.9)
3. ORLANDO -1.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-DEN OVER 230 (+5.5)
2. BOS-PHI OVER 223.5 (+3.7)
3. LAC-MIL OVER 228.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-IND UNDER 251 (-4.3)
2. CHI-NYK UNDER 245 (-0.8)
3. CLE-BKN UNDER 225.5 (-0.7)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(543) BOSTON at (544) PHILADELPHIA
* OVER the total is 4-1 in L5 h2h divisional meetings between BOS and PHI
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(545) MEMPHIS at (546) INDIANA
* MEMPHIS has won seven straight ATS versus Indiana
Trend Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS
(549) CHICAGO at (550) NEW YORK
* UNDERDOGS are 8-2 ATS in L10 of CHI-NYK h2h series
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(551) ORLANDO at (552) ATLANTA
* UNDERDOGS are 6-1 ATS in L7 of ORL-ATL h2h divisional series
Trend Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS
(555) CHARLOTTE at (556) DENVER
* UNDER the total has converted in seven straight h2h meetings between CHA and DET
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(559) LA LAKERS at (560) PORTLAND
* FAVORITES are 5-1 ATS in L6 of LAL-POR h2h series
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS
The post NBA Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for Thursday, February 20 appeared first on VSiN.
