Acapulco, Dubai, Merida tennis best bets for February 24th
Between the ATP and WTA Tours, we’ll have five tournaments to watch this week. I’m going to continue churning out tennis best bets from Sunday to Thursday (until some of the bigger tournaments arrive, my plays for most semifinals and finals will be on the picks page), so come back to the website for writeups on the 500-level events — like Acapulco, Dubai and Merida. The fields for Acapulco and Dubai are especially interesting, so I’ll pay closer attention to those two. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Dubai
In theory, Doha would have been the perfect place for Tsitsipas to make a deep run. Those conditions are extremely slow as far as hard courts go, and slower conditions are usually good for Tsitsipas. The former world No. 3 has a very exploitable weakness in his game, as his one-handed backhand is prone to falling apart. Well, when the ball is bouncing slower and higher, he has time to set his feet and hit that shot. However, Tsitsipas ultimately ended up getting bounced by an injured Hamad Medjedovic. And realistically, the backhand is no longer the lone hole in his game. Tsitsipas’ forehand isn’t as consistently excellent as it once was, he’s not quite as sharp as he used to be as a server and he continues to get worse and worse as a returner. That said, I’m a little surprised the oddsmakers like him to comfortably handle his business against Sonego.
This season, Sonego is 7-5 and made a run to the quarterfinals at the Australian Open. He also played rather well in Marseille, but he got eliminated by eventual champion Ugo Humbert. There’s no shame in that. And overall, Sonego is serving better than Tsitsipas, and his baseline game has been far better than the Greek’s.
Of course, neither one of these guys can really return, so we should see some lengthy sets in which things come down to a few key moments. But that’s exactly why I like Sonego to win a set — and I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. As the more confident player, Sonego will likely be a little more reliable when things get tight. He is the one that has won big matches this year, and Tsitsipas has mostly folded.
Bet: Sonego +1.5 Sets (-129 – 1.5 units) & Sonego ML (+175 – 0.5 units)
Zhizhen Zhang vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard – Dubai
There’s really not much to think about when looking at this match. There’s no such thing as a given in sports betting, so I’m not going to sit here and say this thing is surely going Over the game total. After all, I’m not risking much on it. However, I’m also not sure there’s another way to bet this one. These are two players that blast first serves and struggle to return them. This year, Zhang has a hold percentage of 85.4% and a break percentage of 9.8%. Meanwhile, Mpetshi Perricard’s numbers are even more extreme, as his hold percentage is 92.6% and his break percentage is 2.5%. This just should be a match with multiple tiebreakers, even if there’s only two sets. So, I’m going Over 25.5 here.
I know Zhang earned a 6-3, 7-6 (4) win over Mpetshi Perricard in Cincinnati last year, but his form in 2025 has been miserable compared to that of 2024. So, I’m not sure he’ll be able to pressure Mpetshi Perricard’s return the way he did last season.
Bet: Over 25.5 Games (-112)
Tournament Futures
Alejandro Tabilo (11-1 – 0.25 units) & Nicolas Jarry (11-1 – 0.25 units) To Win Santiago – We haven’t seen great tennis from Tabilo or Jarry this year, but I like the idea of hoping one of the Chileans turns it on in Santiago this week. These two could face off in the quarterfinals, so we’re going to lose one of them even if both do start playing well. But at 11-1 for both guys, I’m fine with that. I simply don’t think that there’s a clear favorite when looking at this watered-down field, as Francisco Cerundolo, Pedro Martinez and Sebastian Baez are three of the four highest-seeded players. When Tabilo and Jarry are playing well, they can take down any of those players. And the crowds in Santiago usually do a very good job of giving their guys some juice.
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
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