Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, March 5, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting 1/30: 34-29-1. Here are today’s results:
– POR-BOS OVER 224.5
Scheduling situation, team strength system #5, and recent head-to-head trend all favor OVER
– MIAMI (+11.5 at CLE)
Scheduling situation, extreme stat system #2, and multiple streak systems FADE Cleveland
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total is 41-24 (63.1%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIA-CLE (o/u at 225.5), DET-LAC (o/u at 219.5), DAL-MIL (o/u at 222.5)
* Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 124-125 SU but 130-104-5 ATS (55.6%), including 92-55-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+9 vs. OKC)
* Favorites are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight of the DAL-MIL head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-10 vs DAL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY, DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on the home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, DENVER, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – WASHINGTON ML, CLEVELAND ML, BOSTON ML, MILWAUKEE ML, DENVER ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-WSH, DAL-MIL, SAC-DEN, OKC-MEM
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAC-DEN, OKC-MEM
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 151-101 SU but 110-139-3 ATS (44.2%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
3/5: Fade BOSTON vs. Portland
3/5: Fade DENVER vs. Sacramento
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-10 vs. POR), DENVER (-5.5 v.s SAC)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 59-43 SU but 43-59 ATS (42.2%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
3/5: Fade BOSTON vs. Portland
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-10 vs. POR)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 81-45 SU but 58-67-1 ATS (46.4%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
3/5: Fade BOSTON vs. Portland
3/5: Fade DENVER vs. Sacramento
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-10 vs. POR), DENVER (-5.5 vs. SAC)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 41-24 SU but 27-37-1 ATS (42.2%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last four seasons.
3/5: Fade BOSTON vs. Portland
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-10 vs. POR)
* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 28-37 SU and 23-41-1 ATS (35.9%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
3/5: Fade CLEVELAND vs. Miami
3/5: Fade LA CLIPPERS vs. Detroit
3/5: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. Dallas
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-11.5 vs. MIA), LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 vs. DET), MILWAUKEE (-10.5 v.s DAL)
* Over the total was 57-52 (52.3%) over last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
3/5: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-MINNESOTA
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-CHA (o/u at 223.5)
* Over the total was 36-22 (62.1%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
3/5: Over the total in BOSTON-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-BOS (o/u at 224.5)
* Over the total is 41-24 (63.1%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/5: Over the total in CLEVELAND-MIAMI
3/5: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-DETROIT
3/5: Over the total in MILWAUKEE-DALLAS
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIA-CLE (o/u at 225.5), DET-LAC (o/u at 219.5), DAL-MIL (o/u at 222.5)
* CHARLOTTE is 34-87 SU and 47-70-2 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
3/5: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. Minnesota
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+9 vs MIN)
* LA CLIPPERS are on a 19-27 SU and 13-33 ATS skid in its last 46 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
3/5: Fade LA CLIPPERS vs. Detroit
Trend Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 vs. DET)
* UTAH is on a 46-24 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
3/5: Over the total in UTAH-WASHINGTON
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-WSH (o/u at 231)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 106-73 SU and 107-69-3 ATS (60.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (*if they fall into this line range at WSH, +5 currently*)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 238-44 SU but just 132-144-6 ATS (47.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-10 vs. POR), MILWAUKEE (-10.5 vs. DAL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 102-84 (54.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 202-165 (55%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 263-201 (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIA-CLE (o/u at 225.5), POR-BOS (o/u at 224.5), DAL-MIL (o/u at 222.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 237-130 SU but 167-192-8 ATS (46.5%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-34-1 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-11.5 vs. MIA), OKLAHOMA CITY (-9 at MEM)
Back-to-back scoring outburst could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 73-55 SU and 67-59-2 ATS (53.2%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-11.5 vs. MIA), OKLAHOMA CITY (-9 at MEM)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 124-125 SU but 130-104-5 ATS (55.6%), including 92-55-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+9 vs. OKC)
Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 144-54 SU and 117-79-2 ATS (59.7%) in their last 198 tries.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-5 vs. UTA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 110-20 SU but 56-71-4 ATS (44.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-11.5 vs MIA)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 69-18 SU and 49-35-3 ATS (58.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9 at MEM)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 236-284-3 ATS (45.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-131 SU and 70-86-5 ATS (44.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+9 vs. MIN), CLEVELAND (-11.5 vs. MIA)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 56-75-1 ATS (42.7%) in the next game, including 25-38 ATS (39.7%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-11.5 vs. MIA)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+3.4)
2. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+1.0)
3. DALLAS +10 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -9 (+0.4)
2. MINNESOTA -9 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +5 (+5.0)
2. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+4.3)
3. CHARLOTTE +9 (+2.9)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -9.5 (+1.8)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -9 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-MIL OVER 222.5 (+1.6)
2. MIA-CLE OVER 222 (+1.1)
3. SAC-DEN OVER 237 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-BOS UNDER 224.5 (-1.3)
2. OKC-MEM UNDER 251.5 (-0.7)
3. DET-LAC UNDER 219.5 (-0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+8.8)
2. DALLAS +10 (+3.8)
3. PORTLAND +9.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). WASHINGTON -5 (+2.4)
DENVER -5.5 (+2.4)
3. CLEVELAND -11.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-MIL OVER 222.5 (+2.8)
2. SAC-DEN OVER 237 (+1.3)
3. MIA-CLE OVER 222 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). MIN-CHA UNDER 223.5 (-2.8)
OKC-MEM UNDER 251.5 (-2.8)
3. POR-BOS UNDER 224.5 (-2.3)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(535) MIAMI at (536) CLEVELAND
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the MIA-CLE head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(537) MINNESOTA at (538) CHARLOTTE
* CHARLOTTE is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 games versus Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS
(539) PORTLAND at (540) BOSTON
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the POR-BOS head-to-head nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(541) OKLAHOMA CITY at (542) MEMPHIS
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games versus Memphis
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
(543) SACRAMENTO at (544) DENVER
* Home teams are 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head matchups between SAC and DEN
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
(545) DALLAS at (546) MILWAUKEE
* Favorites are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight of the DAL-MIL head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS
(547) DETROIT at (548) LA CLIPPERS
* DETROIT is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games at LAC
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
The post NBA Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for Wednesday, March 5 appeared first on VSiN.
