March Madness – VSiN Experts Tournament Props and First Round Best Bets:
Matt Youmans
Duke to win East Region (-120)
If Cooper Flagg stays healthy, nothing is stopping the Blue Devils from reaching the Elite Eight. Arizona, Oregon and Mississippi State are not serious threats in the top half of the bracket. With this bet, we essentially get Duke at -120 against the team that survives the bottom half of the bracket — Alabama, BYU, Wisconsin or Saint Mary’s. The Blue Devils are No. 1 overall at KenPom.com and rate No. 3 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency.
A 13 Seed will win a game (-145)
Yale, a 7.5-point dog to Texas A&M, is the best shot for this prop to hit. The Bulldogs took down Auburn last year, and the Ivy League champs are capable of knocking out another SEC heavyweight. The other 13 seeds — Grand Canyon (vs. Maryland), High Point (vs. Purdue) and Akron (vs. Arizona) — are big dogs, but they all face opponents with a history of getting upset early in this tournament. Look for a better number on this prop because it’s not ideal to be laying this price, but the chances of winning are good. I’m taking the points with all four of the 13 seeds in the first round.
Montana +17 vs. Wisconsin
The Big Ten has eight teams in the tournament, and I have considered betting Under 11.5 for total wins. I do want to fade most of the league’s teams against the spread in the first round. Wisconsin has the potential to make a run, but it’s also a team that could fail to survive the first weekend. The Badgers played four games in four days in the conference tournament and their 3-point shooting bottomed out (7 of 39) in the title game, a 59-53 loss to Michigan. A tired team now goes to Denver to play in altitude and is asked to cover a big number against a 25-win team from the Big Sky.
UConn (-190) vs. Oklahoma
A team that finished 6-12 in Big 12 play deserves a No. 9 seed? No. The Sooners are barely worthy of being in the tournament. Oklahoma’s best player is a freshman point guard, Jeremiah Fears. UConn busted out in the Big East tournament semifinals, but that could be a positive. The Huskies should be hungry, and coach Danny Hurley is a master of preparation. The two-time defending champions are not going out with a whimper and will win a game in this tournament.
Dave Ross
VCU +3 vs. BYU
Yes, it’s a homer alma mater pick, but VCU will challenge the shooters like Houston did against BYU. No, VCU isn’t Houston, but it’s called “havoc” for a reason. If BYU hits enough contested 3s to win and cover, I’ll tip my cap to them.
Drake +6 vs. Missouri
All about tempo. Drake wants to put you to sleep. The Tigers want to run. It’s easier to slow a team down than speed them up in tourney play. As long as the actual Drake doesn’t pick Drake, I think we’re good here.
Grand Canyon +11 vs. Maryland
Fear the turtle…laying double digits. GCU spends money wisely in NIL. They won’t be lacking for talent vs. the Terps. Not only do I like them to cover, but I’d sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well.
Will Hill
UC San Diego +2.5 vs. Michigan
You will hear all week how the Tritons of UC San Diego are too trendy to win, but I am not a believer in the overly simplistic “blindly fade the public” approach. Michigan is a turnover machine, and they draw a ball-hawking UC San Diego team that forces a ton of turnovers. Michigan played three games in three days to win the Big Ten. They now have to turn around and play in altitude on Thursday night in Colorado. The committee did no favors to the Wolverines by putting them on the 5/12 line.
Lipscomb +14.5 vs. Iowa State
Lipscomb had to overcome a late 10-point deficit vs. Queens in their conference semifinals in order to ultimately win the A-Sun automatic bid, but now that they’re here, they could be feisty. They draw a beat-up Iowa State team and bring some variance to this 3/14 matchup, as they take and make a ton of 3s, and are not turnover-prone. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a close game in the final minutes.
Pauly Howard
Akron +14 vs. Arizona and Over 167
The Zips lost one game in the MAC, and they can score. It should be a track meet and go Over. Don’t be scared. The MAC semifinal with Akron had a final score of 100-90.
Michigan -2.5 vs. UC San Diego
Great story and a team that has four top players from Division II schools, but they remind me of McNeese State last year. Everybody picked them vs. Gonzaga, and they got blown out.
Grand Canyon +11.5 vs. Maryland
A team that won a game last year in the tourney and had Alabama on the ropes. They can play slow and fast and were great in the WAC final vs. Utah Valley.
Aaron Moore
Oregon -4.5 vs. Liberty
The 5/12 games always draw plenty of eyes for those searching for this year’s 12 to pull off the customary upset. Liberty is going to fit that profile for a number of bettors since the Flames play slow and have a Top 50 defense. All of that makes Oregon playing in Seattle, as the favorite, a contrarian play. The Ducks have a solid point guard in Jackson Shelstad, who can handle the pressure and get the ball to TJ Bamba and 7-footer Nate Bittle, the type of bodies and scorers Liberty didn’t face in Conference USA. Glad to get this number under five points.
VCU +3.5 vs. BYU
Not many defenses jump the guards and seal the perimeter better than the Rams. Doing so would help them stop BYU’s offensive game plan. Houston demonstrated how physical play can disrupt the chemistry between the Cougars tandem of Egor Demin and Richie Saunders. VCU has the pieces to create a similar game plan and keep it a one-possession game.
Memphis +2.5 vs. Colorado State
The Rams will be a very popular play as they are riding a 10-game winning streak. However, a number of hot Mountain West Conference teams failed to win at least one game in the NCAA tournament. This is slightly a play against the MWC but more so based on the athleticism and height of the Tigers. Dain Dainja and Moussa Cisse can help keep CSU stud Nique Clifford away from the basket. This is still a play, even if Tyrese Hunter is unavailable for Memphis.
Michigan -2.5 vs. UC San Diego
Yes, the Titans have a Top 30 defense and an effective offense, but this short number feels like the books are luring in public bettors who are going to wager on what they want to see. The Wolverines have the Twin Towers of Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, who will serve as the type of safety values to neutralize UCSD’s funky defense.
Matt Brown
Alabama -22 vs. Robert Morris
KenPom has the Robert Morris strength of schedule at 304th in the nation. They played one team with a pulse all year in West Virginia (arguably the biggest tourney snub) and they lost by 28. Don’t let the record fool you. Alabama is a borderline title contender and will be far too much for Robert Morris. Different class of athletes in this game. Bama rolls.
Greg Peterson
UC San Diego ML (+125) vs. Michigan
Two of the past three Big Ten Tournament champions have been bounced from the NCAA Tournament in the first round, with Iowa losing as a five-seed to Richmond in 2022 and Purdue going down in an epic 1/16 upset against Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023. UC San Diego ranks second in the country in turnovers forced per possession, while Michigan is 328th in turnovers per possession on offense.
New Mexico ML (+150) vs. Marquette
While Marquette generates tons of turnovers on defense, ranking 20th in turnovers per possession on defense, New Mexico matches that, ranking 36th in this category while owning a big advantage on the glass. Marquette ranks 241st in rebound percentage, while New Mexico is 57th in this category. New Mexico forward Nelly Junior Joseph is the most dominant big man in this matchup, ranking third in the country in rebounds per game among qualifying players with 14 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game.
Tennessee -18.5 vs. Wofford
Tennessee is one of the most dominant defensive teams in the country, ranking ninth in points per possession allowed. They allow teams to shoot just 27.6% from 3-point range, which is number one in the country. Wofford attempts 47.7% of their shots from 3-point range, which is the 23rd-highest 3-point shot rate in the country. Wofford is 238th in points per possession allowed. In games played away from home, they allow teams to shoot 36% from 3-point range.
Liberty ML (+255) vs. Oregon
Oregon is a unit that truly doesn’t have much of a true strength or weakness, while Liberty is amazing at controlling the 3-point battle, ranking third in the country in 3-point shooting percentage away from home at 40.3%. They are also third in opponents’ 3-point shooting percentage at 28% and are 14th in points per possession away from home.
Georgia/Gonzaga Under 152.5
Gonzaga gets a bad rap from their defense, but the reality is they rank 17th in the country in points per possession allowed on defense. Both teams have struggled to make 3-point shots away from home. Georgia is 347th in road 3-point shooting percentage at 28.7%, while Gonzaga makes only 31.1% of their 3-point shots away from home. Georgia is also 287th in points per possession in games played away from home.
Tyler Shoemaker
Mississippi State/Baylor Over 143.5
The market disagrees with me here, as the total has dropped three points since opening at 146.5, but TSI projects this game into the 150s, and every formula I run is in alignment that these teams’ combination of pace and efficiency should lead to this game going Over.
Alabama/Robert Morris Over 166.5
I’ve been burned numerous times on Alabama Unders this year, but it seems TSI has caught up to the lightning-quick pace and barrage of 3s from the Crimson Tide and is projecting this game to have around 170 points. So I will do what I haven’t been able to do all year and bet an Alabama Over in this first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Ryan Kramer
All 36 1H Unders for the First Four and First Round
Since 2011, when the tournament expanded to 68 teams and introduced the First Four, 1H Unders for the First Four and First Round Games have gone 258-193-17, good for 57.21%. Suggesting that in the first 20 minutes of tournament play you might find slow starts as teams are playing potentially the most watched game of their season in a gym they most likely have never played in before. Furthermore, if you dive into season-by-season success, the trend has been profitable in nine of the last 13 seasons. The kicker, it had its worst season since 2011 last year. Lock in, load up, and here’s to the best bet in sports, the March Madness First Half Under. Check out some of the historical data here.
Dave Tuley
Tennessee to win title (+2000)
Houston to win title (+575)
Going through the brackets (with an eye glancing at my VSiN colleague Gill Alexander’s “historical criteria” to pick a national champion – even though he says it’s more vulnerable than it’s ever been), I arrive at Tennessee as the best value pick at juicy odds of 20-1 (Westgate). The Volunteers are a little under the radar coming from the SEC. Auburn winning the regular-season title and being the No. 1 overall seed and Florida winning the conference tourney and as a No. 2 seed are priced way higher than the other Gill qualifiers: Duke (+350), Auburn (+450) and Houston (+575). I’m also betting Houston at +575 at Circa, as the Cougars are being overlooked a little. They have the highest odds among the No. 1 seeds, though they do have a tough potential second-round matchup vs. under-seeded Gonzaga and, of course, must also get by Tennessee to even make it out of the Midwest Regional to the Final Four. I’m looking for some book to offer odds on “region to win national title” to see if there is any value there with the Midwest.
Texas Tech to win West Region (+515)
Everyone seems to be jumping on the Florida bandwagon off of the Gators winning the deep SEC conference tournament and checking all the boxes to win the national championship, so I’m looking for a way to fade them instead of just taking teams with the points on a game-to-game basis (as they’re -29 vs. No. 16 Norfolk in the first round and are going to be overpriced as long as they survive). Texas Tech can score every which way, whether from 3 or pick-and-rolls, so the Red Raiders will be dangerous throughout. I also like their path to the West Regional final, where they’ll probably face the Gators (potentially just have to get past NC-Wilmington, Missouri and St. John’s).
Mike Somich
Houston and Duke to reach the Elite Eight (+117)
One of the things I love about the expansion of betting is the additional options that are now offered at sportsbooks, including the ability to parlay results like teams to reach a specific round. When analyzing the draw, the two teams with the easiest path to the Elite Eight are Duke and Houston. Putting them together results in a plus-money bet.
Duke’s top half of the East bracket drew very weak, especially on the defensive side. Both Baylor and Mississippi State pose a minimal threat to this Duke team, and the Sweet 16 match of either Oregon or Arizona does not possess a top defensive team to slow Duke down. Similarly, Houston draws favorable second-round matchups against either Gonzaga or Georgia and then the winner of Clemson and Purdue. This will have the best offense and defense in every matchup and, like Duke, avoid having any high-ranking SEC school in their section of the bracket.
If you want to add St John’s and Michigan State to the parlay, two additional teams who I believe have favorable draws, this balloons out to +1521.
Grand Canyon to reach Sweet 16 (+900)
Love the price on Grand Canyon in a wide open section of the West region. When playing these 12 or 13 seeds to make the Sweet 16, it’s important to note the second-round matchup. If you believe that both the 12 and 13 seeds are live, there is almost always going to be value in the Sweet 16 bet since the price generally factors in the higher-seeded teams winning. Grand Canyon is a deep, veteran team with length that can score and defend. They drew a first-round opponent in Maryland that has had highs, but can struggle to score at times and is a younger squad. The 12-seeded Colorado State is actually favored over #5 Memphis in the other matchup, so there is not a world-beater in this grouping. I also like Grand Canyon +10.5 and a money line sprinkle (+440) in Round 1 as well.
Ole Miss to reach Sweet 16 (+220)
This is all about finding a way to play against Iowa State, who is limping into the tournament. After a 15-1 start, Iowa St simply could not find consistency on the offense end, closing out the season on an 8-7 stretch while turning the ball over on nearly 20% of offensive possessions. Ole Miss seems like the most logical way to fade the Cyclones. They boast a top 30 offensive and defensive rating and do not turn the ball over, third least in the nation. That bodes well against Iowa State. My bigger concern is the winner of the SDSU/UNC play-in game. No matter who plays Iowa State to make the Sweet 16, assuming they beat Lipscomb, I will be on the other side.
Jonathan Von Tobel
Troy +11 vs. Kentucky
Underdogs who pull off upsets in the NCAA Tournament play slow and shoot a high rate of 3-point attempts. Troy checks those boxes. The Trojans are 229th in the country in tempo and 57th in 3-point attempt rate. Those are very similar qualities to the Oakland team which ousted Kentucky last year. The problem with Troy is that, unlike Oakland, it does not shoot well. The Trojans are the worst shooting team in the field. However, the team’s offensive floor should be raised against the Wildcats. Kentucky allowed 112.3 points per 100 possessions in SEC play. It also ranks 289th in the country in 2-point percentage allowed. Troy led the Sun Belt in 2-point percentage and is 77th in the country in that category.
UC San Diego +3.5 vs. Michigan
Slow pace and a high rate of 3-point shooting will be common traits among the teams I am backing here in the first round. The Tritons fit that mold perfectly. They are 271st in the country in tempo, eighth in 3-point rate, and 57th in 3-point percentage. This play isn’t all about UC San Diego. It’s about Michigan as well. The Wolverines have a massive turnover problem. They give away the ball on 19.8% of their offensive possessions. It is the third-worst rate in the field. Michigan also fails to force turnovers on defense. The Wolverines will likely lose the possession battle in a low-possession game like this one projects to be, and that will be a problem. Furthermore, Michigan seems to be living on borrowed time. Despite finishing 11-4 in their final 15 games, the Wolverines posted a -24 point differential.
Akron +15.5 vs. Arizona
Usually, it does not bode well for an underdog to play at a fast tempo. More possessions means the better team has more of an opportunity to win the contest. In that sense, the quick pace of the Zips might not bode well. The Wildcats will be more than willing to match tempo as well, as both teams rank 16th and 54th respectively in tempo this season. However, this is a play on the potential variance Arizona brings to the table. The Wildcats shot 32.4% from beyond the arc in the regular season. Akron is 52nd in 3-point rate and 49th in 3-point shooting. The Zips enter this contest with an advantage in the math battle. They take and make more 3-pointers than their opponent. That is a good edge to have when catching such a big number.
Drake +6.5 vs. Missouri
This is a fade of Missouri. The Tigers enter the NCAA Tournament on a 2-5 SU and ATS slide. Over that span, they are 219th in the country in defensive rating. Six of their last eight opponents have scored 91 or more points. The Tigers’ defense has bottomed out, and now it must face an extremely efficient offensive foe in Drake. The Bulldogs average 112.6 points per 100 possessions this season, and they are the slowest team in the field in terms of tempo. Drake does not shoot a high rate of 3-point attempts, but it does hit 35.0% of its shots from deep. The Bulldogs are also one of the best offensive-rebounding teams in the country. That is a strong matchup for them in this game, as the Tigers are the third-worst defensive rebounding team in the field.
New Mexico +3.5 vs. Marquette
New Mexico was a trendy pick last year, and the Lobos embarrassed their supporters by losing to Clemson by 21 points. This New Mexico squad is much better, and it is led by different role players. It also has a very strong advantage on the glass. Marquette’s biggest weakness is rebounding. It is 176th in offensive rebounding rate and 244th in defensive rebounding rate. The Lobos rank 127th and 21st in those categories, respectively. They finished second in the Mountain West in offensive rebounding rate. New Mexico should be able to generate second-chance opportunities at a high rate, while limiting a jump-shooting Marquette squad to one shot regularly. The Lobos also have the best player on the floor in guard Donovan Dent.
Sean Green
Oregon -6.5 vs. Liberty
Oregon comes in with a top-40 offense and defense and should match up well against Liberty. I love leaning into teams that are good at the FT line come tournament time. Oregon is almost 11% better than Liberty, who is the worst team in the tournament from the charity stripe. Am I being swayed by my 35-1 ticket on the Ducks to make the Final Four? Absolutely, but Oregon is still the play as they extinguish the Flames.
Yale +7.5 vs. Texas A&M
Buzz Williams will be sweating through his three-piece suit in this game, as the Ivy League has proven to be a tough out in the tournament. Yale plays a clean and efficient offensive style and doesn’t turn the ball over. Texas A&M will struggle to generate enough offense to get this big cover.
Wes Reynolds
North Carolina ML (-170) vs. San Diego State
With a 1-12 Quad 1 record and its best win of the season being against a 7-seed (UCLA), North Carolina did not deserve to be selected for this year’s NCAA Tournament. That is an opinion, by and large, that is universally shared across the college basketball landscape.
Nevertheless, we have seen this movie before in the NCAA Tournament. The team that everyone says should not be in the dance comes in with a little extra motivation. The Tar Heels should certainly qualify in that regard commingled with a sigh of relief being included in the field of 68.
They thought they were done after Jae’Lyn Withers’ unfortunate lane violation on what could have been the game-tying FT likely taking it to overtime against a Cooper Flagg-less Duke in Friday’s ACC Tournament Semifinals. Now, they get a reprieve.
Meanwhile, San Diego State brings a solid defensive team (Sixth in Effective FG% defense, 13th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency), as they always do. Plus, Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Magoon Gwath is likely to return from a knee injury after missing the Aztecs’ last five games.
The competition since mid-February has not exactly been the most stringent for North Carolina, save for two games vs. Duke, but they are shooting the 3-ball better. In their last 10 games, the Tar Heels have shot 42.6% from outside the arc compared to 35.3% for its season average. San Diego State’s pack line will allow ample opportunity for the Heels as the Aztecs allow opponents to take 47.3% of their shots (11th most out of 364 D-1 teams) from deep.
While Carolina did have to play three games last week in the ACC Tournament, and the Aztecs were one and done in the Mountain West, the energy combined with both relief and extra motivation carries the Tar Heels on Tuesday in Dayton.
Texas Tech to win West Region (+600)
On Selection Sunday evening, it felt like we were flashing back to NBC News’ 2000 election night coverage, seeing the late, great Meet The Press host Tim Russert saying, “Florida, Florida, Florida.” The Florida Gators seemed to be the consensus pick on all the networks to cut down the nets in San Antonio. Why not, considering they rolled through the SEC Tournament with victories over Missouri, Alabama, and Tennessee? The Gators also have the nation’s No. 1 offense.
St. John’s is the 2 seed, and Rick Pitino’s guys dominated the Big East, winning both the tournament and regular season championships. However, the Red Storm, who are No. 1 defensively, rank just 65th in offensive efficiency per KenPom. This is not a good shooting team. One bad night will find them heading for an early exit.
The team under the radar in the West Region is 3-seed Texas Tech. The short-handed Red Raiders were playing essentially just six guys and lost in the Big XII semifinals to Arizona. Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams missed that game with injuries. Texas Tech head coach Grant McCasland sounded optimistic about both of their availability. The Red Raiders have had injuries all year. Only wingman Kerwin Walton played all 33 games. Despite most players missing some time this season, this team is a solid eight deep and is one of the most efficient offenses (6th) in the country.
While the SEC deserves all the love in its greatest season in conference history, there are no tougher venues to win away from home than in the Big XII and Texas Tech won at Houston, at BYU, and at Kansas.
We will likely get a meeting of “mission teams” in the Elite Eight, as both Florida and Texas Tech were bounced in last year’s first round. NCAA Tournament games tend to become grinders late. That style favors the Red Raiders in a potential matchup with the Gators.
Jensen Lewis
Houston to reach the Final Four (+105)
The Cougars boast the top defensive efficiency in the country, paired with a Top 5 offensive efficiency, making them a truly formidable team. With their elite defense and rebounding, I’m confident they have what it takes to dominate any opponent they face in the Midwest region in 2025.
St. John’s to reach the Elite Eight (+210)
Call it a gut feeling, but if any region is primed for chaos ahead of the Red Storm, this could be the year “The Godfather” Rick Pitino takes full advantage. With only the Houston Cougars ahead of them in defensive efficiency and St. John’s riding the momentum of their first Big East tournament championship in years, they’re poised for a strong run. A potential showdown with the Gators in the West regional final could very well be the path to the Final Four.
Team to advance further—Florida (-115) or Auburn (-105): Florida
The Gators could have two opportunities to make a deep run: a seemingly more favorable path through the West region compared to War Eagle in the South, as well as a potential head-to-head showdown in the Final Four if the bracket plays out as expected. Auburn’s struggles, losing three of their last four games heading into the tournament, are concerning. I’m backing the team that appears the most complete and formidable at the moment.
Nick Whalen
Michigan State to reach the Elite Eight (+140)
I was plenty skeptical of this Spartans team earlier in the season, but they’ve won me over, and you have to like the draw at the bottom of the South region. Michigan State should have no trouble with Bryant in Round 1 before facing the winner of Marquette and New Mexico – two relatively uninspiring teams. Three-seed Iowa State will be limited by injuries, so the path is fairly clear for Michigan State to set up a potential showdown with Auburn with a Final Four berth on the line.
Wisconsin team total Over 84.5 vs. Montana
While the Badgers were passed over not once, but twice, to begin their Tournament run in Milwaukee, they have to be pleased with their first-round matchup against Montana. Not only were the Grizzlies the luckiest team in the nation, per KenPom, but they rank 250th in defensive efficiency. That’s exactly the type of matchup the Badgers want to see after ending the Big Ten Tournament with a disastrous shooting game in a loss to Michigan. I love this as a high-scoring, bounce-back spot for the Badgers.
Drake +6.5 vs. Missouri
Drake may not be as battle-tested as Missouri, but few teams are playing better than the Bulldogs entering the Tournament. Drake has just one loss on its ledger since January 5th and will look to slow the pace against a Mizzou team that’s dropped five of its last seven games. Missouri is the more explosive team, but Drake rates better on the defensive end and should have a decided advantage on the glass (13th nationally in TRB%).
Dustin Swedelson
Saint Mary’s to make Elite Eight (+500)
The Gaels’ path couldn’t fit better for their style of play. They’re an elite defensive team wrapping up the season eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency, 14th in effective defensive field goal percentage, 44th defending 3-pointers, and 12th against 2-pointers. If they get past Vanderbilt, they are built to slow down the 3-point-dependent teams they could see along the way in the East, like Alabama and BYU.
Grace Remington
UC San Diego +3.5 vs. Michigan
Michigan just played three games in three days at the Big Ten tournament and now has to fly to Denver to play in altitude. The Wolverines’ biggest weakness is turnovers (#328th in giveaways). That happens to be the Tritons’ strength, as they rank sixth nationally in offensive turnover rate and second in defensive turnover rate.
Liberty +6.5 vs. Oregon
The Flames rank second nationally in effective field goal rate because they let it fly from beyond the arc. They rank 22nd in 3-point attempts and fifth in 3-point makes, hitting their shots almost 40% of the time. They’re also a disciplined team that protects the ball well and runs at a slow pace, all things that bode well for an underdog.
Wisconsin to miss the Sweet 16 (-110)
Wisconsin just played four games in four days in the Big Ten tournament and lost the title in the final seconds. It faces short rest – the team had to fly back to Madison, WI, then to Denver, where it will have to adjust to the altitude. Their first-round opponent, Montana, and potential second-round opponent, BYU, are both accustomed to playing at altitude and will be better rested after their conference tournament schedules ended early.
Steve Makinen
Duke to win the National Championship (+320)
So much has been made this year about the SEC and its supremacy as a whole, but in the shadow of that, Duke has gone about its business somewhat quietly, playing elite basketball all year long. There were really no droughts. Despite the youth concerns I once had, I think this team has demonstrated maturity beyond its years. Cooper Flagg is a potential tourney MVP, and the Blue Devils are the first team I’ve had in a while that went into the tournament as the #1 ranked team in all five of my rating sets, including the Game Grade Forecast. Their momentum rating is 3.9 points better than anyone else.
Maryland to reach Sweet 16 (-180)
I was pleasantly surprised to see how highly Maryland ranked on my overall ratings and projections when I finalized them Sunday evening. If you look at my Shared Traits article, you will see that the Terps were one of four teams to score a perfect 17 as being a Final Four-worthy team. The first game is a relative “gimme” versus Grand Canyon despite CBS analysts’ crazy gushing, and the second game would be against the Memphis-Colorado State winner. Memphis is ordinary, and CSU, while hot, is still a Mountain West team. From my Conference Trends article, you can easily see how bad MWC teams have been in the Dance.
Michigan State to reach Sweet 16 (-180)
The Spartans are one of six teams that, according to my average of the ratings, have better than a 60% chance of surviving the weekend and reaching the Round of 16. Head coach Tom Izzo’s teams are known for thriving at this time of year. Assuming the two teams advance in round 1, MSU will be in line for a matchup versus Marquette in round two. The Golden Eagles played their best ball at the start of the season. Michigan State is playing its best ball now when it matters most.
Gonzaga to reach Sweet 16 (+340)
I figured I’d throw one longshot in the mix for my best bets. Earlier in the season, I included Houston among six teams I thought were worthy of winning the title. I still think the Cougars are there, but a round two matchup with Gonzaga is not what I would have had in the cards. Houston has my lowest chance of the #1’s to reach the Final Four at 30.2%. Gonzaga could quite possibly be the most under-seeded team I’ve seen in a while and should be playing with a chip on their shoulder accordingly. Regardless of any improvements made this season, Houston’s shotmaking come tourney time is always a concern, as is the status of stud big-man J’Wan Roberts.
Colorado State -2.5 vs. Memphis
For as much as it pains me to invest in a Mountain West team in the tournament, this Colorado State team has been on fire lately. As a 12 seed, they are a small favorite over #5 Memphis. My Momentum Ratings show that CSU has been a 9.7-point better team than the Tigers down the stretch, and that doesn’t even include any potential adjustment to Memphis for guard Tyrese Hunter’s status
Tim Murray
Mount St. Mary’s/American Under 129.5
Entering the MAAC Tournament as the 6 seed, Mount St. Mary’s was tied for the highest seed (Wofford) to win its conference tournament this March. How did they do it? Slow games down and play great halfcourt defense. In their three games in the MAAC Tournament, the Mountaineers averaged 62.7 possessions per game, and all three games went Under the total by an average of 14 points per game. The Mountaineers lost two of their most productive players during the season—big man Terrell Ard and sharpshooter Carmelo Pacheco (47% from 3). There is a chance Pacheco could return for the NCAA Tournament. On the other side, American is one of the slowest teams in the country. The Eagles are 349th (out of 364) in adjusted tempo and are 356th in average possession length. The market quickly bet this game Under 131.5 on Selection Sunday, but I think it is still playable at 129.5.
Drake +6.5 vs. Missouri
Insert the Jim Carrey GIF from Me, Myself, and Irene: “Oh boy. Here we go…” For a third straight year, I am backing the Drake Bulldogs in the first round. Just a quick refresher. In 2023, 12th-seeded Drake (+2.5) led Miami, 55-47, with five minutes to play in regulation. Miami ended the game on a 16-1 run en route to a 63-56 win. Last year, 10th-seeded Drake flipped from a one-point underdog to a one-point favorite against Washington State. The Bulldogs led 54-46 at the under-eight media timeout but ultimately lost 66-61 to the Cougars.
Darian DeVries departed Drake after last season and is now the head coach of West Virginia. Ben McCollum stepped in from Division II powerhouse Northwest Missouri St. Drake went 30-3 this season under McCollum and won the Missouri Valley Conference again. The Bulldogs profile as an ideal upset candidate. Drake is last in the country (364 out of 364) in average possession length and adjusted tempo. Missouri is elite offensively (fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency) and could pose a significant issue down low with Mark Mitchell. Mitchell was sidelined in Missouri’s loss to Florida in the SEC quarterfinals, but Mitchell is expected to play vs. Drake. The 6’9” forward averaged 14.1 points per game this season and could be a matchup problem for the Bulldogs. That said, McCollum has plenty of NCAA Tournament coaching experience, leading NW Missouri State to four Division II National Championships. I think Drake can drag Missouri in the mud and make it a slog of a first-round game.
Yale +7.5 vs. Texas A&M
While the 5/12 game in the South Region (Michigan vs. UC San Diego) is garnering lots of attention, the 4/13 matchup is quite enticing as well. Last year, as a 14.5-point underdog, Yale upset Auburn, 78-76, in the first round. Back in 2016, Yale knocked off Baylor in the first round as well. The 2016 Baylor team has some similarities to the 2025 Texas A&M squad. The 2016 Bears were fourth nationally in offensive rebounding rate, while the Aggies are currently first this year. Yale is 22nd in the nation in limiting its opponents on the offensive glass. Texas A&M thrives on second-chance opportunities, but if Yale can limit that, the Aggies could have issues against the Bulldogs. Texas A&M enters the NCAA Tournament shooting just 31.1% from 3 (317th in the nation), 48% from inside the arc (293rd), and 69.5% on free throws (274th). Yale head coach James Jones has been here before and should have his squad up for the challenge.
Stormy Buonantony
Colorado State to make the Sweet 16 (+400)
Colorado State ML (-135) vs. Memphis
CSU is a team that struggled early on this season, but they have been very different since the calendar flipped to 2025. They lost four starters from last year, and it took some time for Nico Medved to re-tool and allocate the proper roles for his guys. Since ringing in the new year, CSU is 19-3 (with all three losses coming to KenPom Top-60 teams). The shots have been falling (17th nationally with 58% shooting inside and sixth shooting 49% from 3-point range), and they’ve continued to play good D (third-best defense in the Mountain West behind only New Mexico and San Diego State). As the season got later, the Rams got even better. Per Bart Torvik, since Feb 15th, the Rams have the eighth-best overall rating in the country and bring a 10-game win streak and MW Tournament title into the Dance.
This is also the time of year when we look for lesser-known stars to emerge. CSU has a potential March Madness darling on their hands in stud 6’6” wing Nique Clifford. Looking at their portion of the bracket, CSU is favored in their 12/5 matchup with Memphis. Then, should they win as the odds indicate, they’ll get the winner of Grand Canyon-Maryland in the Round of 32. The Terps are a good team but not trustworthy in a close game late, and Grand Canyon hasn’t had to play teams of CSU or Maryland’s caliber. The buck will stop in the Sweet 16, likely facing Florida, but we’re not asking them to win a game like that. They just need to get there. Give me CSU to make a little run and get to the Sweet 16. I also selfishly hope they won’t be the lone Mountain West team to win a game or two. Despite the history of the league, I’m leaning Mountain West Over 2.5 conference wins at +150, with New Mexico, San Diego State and Utah State also dancing.
UC San Diego ML (+125) and +2.5 vs. Michigan
I’m still stunned that Michigan won the Big Ten tournament. I do not find them trustworthy at all, and unfortunately for them, the tournament win may have come at a cost. They played three games in three days (including two physically and mentally exhausting games against Maryland and Wisconsin), and we’ve seen two of the last three Big Ten champs lose in the first round against “lesser than” opponents. I put that in quotations for a reason. UC San Diego is good—really good. They have an opportunity to make a splash against a Power Conference opponent in their Big Dance debut. They’ve won 15 straight entering the tournament, including the Big West Tournament title. They’re a high-volume 3-point-shooting team, which makes them dangerous if they get hot and are great on defense. With that in mind, arguably their biggest strength is Michigan’s largest weakness: Turning over the basketball. The Tritons are top-five nationally in offensive and defensive turnover percentage, while Michigan is 328th in turnovers per possession. While many will argue Michigan’s size and rebounding edge are too much, I think the Tritons have enough of the right recipe elsewhere to keep the Wolverines on early upset watch.
Scott Seidenberg
Gonzaga -6.5 vs. Georgia
Mark Few is 21-3 SU in the first round and should make it 22 wins here. Gonzaga is an analytics darling, ranking ninth overall in KenPom. What could be the difference here is the Zags’ ability to cash in from the free throw line. At 80.1%, Gonzaga is the fourth-best free throw shooting team in the country. A close game late could turn into an easy cover of 6.5 with free throws.
North Carolina ML vs. Ole Miss
North Carolina should not be in the NCAA Tournament. The resume is not good enough. However, there they are. KenPom ranks the Tar Heels 33rd overall, Bart Torvik has them 39th, and EvanMiya has them 29th. This is not a terrible team and when it comes down to motivation, no one has more than UNC. Plus, history is on our side here. The First Four started in 2011. In every year of its existence, with the exception of 2019, at least one team that has won in Dayton has gone on to win their Round of 64 game. I predict North Carolina will be that team as they are the best of the four 11 seeds in the play-in round.
Jeff Erickson
Arizona -13.5 vs. Akron
Analytically, I hate taking a favorite in a 4/13 matchup, especially one with Arizona’s history of falling short early in the tournament. Yet, I can’t quite get past the notion that the Zips side is too clever for its own good. Akron has the 13th fastest pace in the country, but that often plays into Arizona’s hands. With the game in Seattle, Akron also has a negative travel disparity. Furthermore, anytime they’ve stepped out of their comfort zone schedule-wise, they’ve been knocked back down, with blowout losses to St. Mary’s and Yale. KenPom has Arizona at 14, Torvik has them at 9, and Akron at 99 and 100, respectively. I’ll fade the early line movement on this one and take the Wildcats.
Adam Schein
Arkansas +5.5 vs. Kansas
Liberty +6.5 vs. Oregon
Creighton +2.5 vs. Louisville
VCU +3.5 vs. BYU
Yale +7.5 vs. Texas A&M
Michigan -2.5 vs. UC San Diego
Vanderbilt +3.5 vs. Saint Mary’s
Connecticut -4.5 vs. Oklahoma
Patrick Meagher
UC San Diego +2.5 vs. Michigan
High Point +8.5 vs. Purdue
Drake +6.5 vs. Missouri
St John’s/Omaha Under 148
Colorado State -2.5 vs. Memphis
Clemson -7.5 vs. McNeese State
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