MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, April 4.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
1:10 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
After ranking last in the league in runs per game by about half a run, the Chicago White Sox offense looks slightly more respectable this season, averaging over 3.8 runs per game in the early going. They’ll look to Jonathan Cannon to build off the five scoreless innings he threw in his first start of the season. Cannon allowed plenty of baserunners in that outing and walked three batters, and he may run into trouble against a Tigers lineup that was in the bottom half of the league in runs scored last year. However, that was with a very young core that now appears to be coming into its own, notching 4.5 runs per game to start the season.
Pick: White Sox vs. Tigers Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.7)
2:20 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
The wind blowing in at Wrigley Field is always a factor, but it won’t help if pitchers struggle with command. Padres starter Michael King handed out four walks in his first start of the season and has a lifetime rate of 3.2 walks per nine innings, along with a 4.72 fielding independent and 6.2 strikeouts per nine. Shota Imanaga has allowed just one run across his first two starts (11 innings), but also issued six walks while striking out only six. Against a Padres lineup that ranked seventh in runs per game on the road last season, that could spell trouble—even in favorable pitching conditions.
Pick: Padres vs. Cubs Over 6.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.4)
3:10 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets
Mets starter Tylor Megill had a solid season debut, allowing just one run over five innings against the Astros. Still, he owns a career 4.52 ERA and 4.35 fielding independent, with 1.4 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman saw a notable drop in strikeout numbers last year, falling from his usual 10+ K/9 rate to just 8.1, alongside a 3.83 ERA and 3.77 FIP. At his age, he’ll need to find a way to get outs without relying as much on the whiff.
Picks: Mets -132 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Mets -147 and Total 8.2)
4:10 PM Eastern
Oakland Athletics vs. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have yet to score more than four runs in a game this season, but playing at Coors Field typically leads to inflated offense. Last year, they averaged 4.9 runs per game at home—fourth in MLB—while managing just 3.5 on the road, worst in the NL. Rockies starter Ryan Feltner owns a lifetime 6.01 ERA at Coors, and the Athletics currently have the worst team ERA in the AL at 5.46.
Pick: Athletics vs. Rockies Over 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 10.6)
4:35 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. San Francisco Giants
Justin Verlander is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but at age 42, he’s not the same pitcher, carrying a 5.38 ERA and 4.74 FIP since the start of 2024, allowing 1.5 home runs per nine. He’ll face a Mariners lineup that scored nearly 4.6 runs per game on the road last year, compared to under 3.8 at home. Mariners starter Bryce Miller had a breakout 2024, with a 2.98 ERA and 3.58 FIP, along with excellent control: 8.5 strikeouts and just 2.2 walks per nine.
Pick: Mariners +132 Moneyline (Greg’s Handicap: Mariners +121)
7:15 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
There’s panic in Atlanta after an 0-7 start, but the Braves have faced arguably the toughest schedule so far—playing all those games on the West Coast against the Dodgers and Padres. Max Meyer had a solid debut for the Marlins, allowing one run over 5 2/3 innings against Pittsburgh, but still owns a career 5.50 ERA and 5.73 FIP. Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach has a 3.19 ERA and 3.25 FIP across 22 career starts. The Atlanta bullpen, once a strength, has stumbled out of the gate with a 5.40 ERA, while the Marlins have averaged over 4.1 runs per game by playing station-to-station baseball.
Picks: Marlins +204 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Marlins +183 and Total 7.9)
7:40 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
Despite injuries to Colton Cowser and Gunnar Henderson, the Orioles have managed to plate 36 runs in their first seven games. However, they’ll need Dean Kremer to step up. He gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings in his season debut and had a 4.10 ERA last season with 3.5 walks per nine. Royals starter Seth Lugo had a 2024 season in which he gave up just 0.7 home runs per nine, but that was an outlier—he had surrendered 1.2+ HR/9 in each of the four prior seasons. He allowed three runs over five innings in his 2025 debut.
Picks: Royals -115 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Royals -144 and Total 9.1)
8:05 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
The Rays still have offensive question marks after ranking 29th in runs per game last season, with only the White Sox scoring fewer away from home. Rangers starter Tyler Mahle has struggled to stay healthy and went just 1 2/3 innings in his first outing of 2025, but he may be able to settle in against a weaker Rays lineup. On the flip side, Zack Littell has been solid since joining Tampa Bay in 2023, with a 3.68 ERA and just 1.4 walks per nine innings, though he has also allowed 1.3 home runs per nine.
Picks: Rangers -120 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -138 and Total 8.2)
9:38 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Guardians scored just four runs in a three-game set with the Padres but looked sharper at the plate earlier against the Royals. They’ll face Angels starter Jose Soriano, who’s been good at keeping the ball in the yard since 2024, with 7.7 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine, plus a 3.42 ERA. Cleveland’s Gavin Williams was unlucky last year—his 4.86 ERA came with a 3.67 FIP—but he still walked 3.8 per nine. With Mike Trout back, the Angels offense looks revitalized after finishing 28th in scoring last year.
Pick: Guardians vs. Angels Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.1)
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