Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, April 3, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 69-56-2 (55.2%). Here are today’s results:
– MEMPHIS (-4.5 at MIA)
Two DK Betting Splits systems, extreme stat system #17, three streak systems, and Makinen bettors ratings projection all favor MEM + scheduling trend and extreme stat system #8 both fade MIA
– ORL-WSH UNDER 214.5
Two DK Betting Splits systems, scheduling trend, team strength system #5, and Makinen effective strength ratings projections all favor Under
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 157-101 SU but 113-142-3 ATS (44.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-1.5 vs. GSW)
* MILWAUKEE is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head games versus PHI
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-12 at PHI)
* Favorites are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS in the last 12 of Magic-Wizards head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-14 at WSH)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, MEMPHIS, PORTLAND, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, PORTLAND, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): HOME TEAMS – LA LAKERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO ML, MILWAUKEE ML, MINNESOTA ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-WSH, POR-TOR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIN-BKN
UNDER – ORL-WSH
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 157-101 SU BUT 113-142-3 ATS (44.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 84-45 SU but 59-69-1 ATS (46.1%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
4/3: Fade LA LAKERS vs. Golden State
Systems Match (FADE ATS): LA LAKERS (-1.5 vs. GSW)
* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 48-60 SU and 45-63 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
4/3: Fade GOLDEN STATE at LA Lakers
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+1.5 at LAL)
* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 34-40 SU and 28-44-2 ATS (38.9%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
* MIAMI is on a 11-13 SU but 10-14 ATS skid playing at home in a 4th in 6 Days game
4/3: Fade MIAMI vs. Memphis
System/Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+4.5 vs. MEM)
* Over the total is 45-29 (60.8%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
4/3: Over the total in MIAMI-MEMPHIS
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-MIA (o/u at 225)
* Under the total was 15-3 (83.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing its 3rd Home in 4 Days and the road team was playing a 2 Days Rest game.
4/3: Under the total in WASHINGTON-ORLANDO
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-WSH (o/u at 214.5)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 54-51 SU and 43-59-3 ATS skid in the last 105 when playing on standard One Day Rest
4/3: Fade MILWAUKEE at Philadelphia
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-12 at PHI)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 259-47 SU but just 143-157-6 ATS (47.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (-13 at BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 108-88 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 220-171 (56.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 277-214 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-PHI (o/u at 227.5), MIN-BKN (o/u at 215)
UNDER – ORL-WSH (o/u at 214.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 247-133 SU but 175-197-8 ATS (47%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-35-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-13 at BKN)
Back-to-back scoring outburst could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 79-55 SU and 70-62-2 ATS (53%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+1.5 at LAL)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 298-229 SU but 236-276-15 ATS (46.1%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 42-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+4.5 vs. MEM)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 290-304 SU and 266-320-8 ATS (45.4%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-12 at PHI)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 332-296 SU but 286-323-17 ATS (47%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BROOKLYN (+13 vs. MIN), TORONTO (+5 vs. POR), GOLDEN STATE (+1.5 at LAL)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 165-177 SU and 155-178-9 ATS (46.5%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+1.5 at LAL)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 194-76 SU and 143-124-3 ATS (53.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-4.5 at MIA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 34-73 SU but 59-48 ATS (55.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-4.5 at MIA)
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in rare role of playing as road favorites, going 39-13 SU and 35-15-2 ATS (70%) in their last 52 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-4.5 at MIA)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 2.6% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (207-228 ATS, 47.6%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (276-274 ATS, 50.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): MEMPHIS (-4.5 at MIA)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on an 81-87 SU but 97-69-3 ATS (58.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-4.5 at MIA)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 253-303-3 ATS (45.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-134 SU and 70-89-5 ATS (44%).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+12 vs. MIL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +12 (+2.7)
2. WASHINGTON +14 (+1.5)
3. TORONTO +4.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +12 (+7.3)
2. BROOKLYN +13 (+4.2)
3. TORONTO +4.5 (+3.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LA LAKERS -1.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIL-PHI OVER 227.5 (+0.3)
2. MIN-BKN OVER 215 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-TOR UNDER 224 (-3.0)
2. ORL-WSH UNDER 214.5 (-2.9)
3. MEM-MIA UNDER 225 (-1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +12 (+2.5)
2. WASHINGTON +14 (+1.9)
3. BROOKLYN +13 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -4.5 (+0.9)
2. PORTLAND -4.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-WSH OVER 214.5 (+4.3)
2. MIN-BKN OVER 215 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-TOR UNDER 224 (-5.8)
2. MEM-MIA UNDER 225 (-2.4)
3. MIL-PHI UNDER 227.5 (-1.4)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(549) ORLANDO at (550) WASHINGTON
* Favorites are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS in the last 12 of the ORL-WSH head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO
* Over the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the head-to-head series at Washington
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(551) PORTLAND at (552) TORONTO
* Underdogs are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the POR-TOR head-to-head nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS
(553) MILWAUKEE at (554) PHILADELPHIA
* MILWAUKEE is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head games versus PHI
Trend Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE
(555) MEMPHIS at (556) MIAMI
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the MEM-MIA head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(557) MINNESOTA at (558) BROOKLYN
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the MIN-BKN head-to-head series at Brooklyn
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total (559) GOLDEN STATE at (560) LA LAKERS
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the GSW-LAL head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
The post NBA Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for Thursday, April 3 appeared first on VSiN.
