MLB Best Bets Today April 11:
All 30 teams are in action today and we have nothing but night games, so there is plenty of time to dig into the MLB card and find some picks. We have a pretty good number of division battles as well, so these are important games, even this early in the season. There are a couple of games really threatened by weather and it looks like we probably won’t get Blue Jays vs. Orioles tonight, but most of the rest of the games look like business as usual.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 11:
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians (-130, 7)
6:10 p.m. ET
It should be an excellent night to be a pitcher in Cleveland. With cool temps and a lake breeze knocking down fly balls, the total of 7 with Under juice is very much warranted for this matchup between Kris Bubic and Tanner Bibee.
Bubic looks like the next breakout guy for the Royals after Cole Ragans took that award last season. He’s allowed a 31% Hard Hit% and just one Barrel this season on the heels of a 28.6% Hard Hit% and just two Barrels last season in 77 batted ball events. He made 27 appearances in relief after working 35.2 innings in the minors as he came back from missing most of 2023 with an injury.
This season, his velo gain in relief has mostly stuck and he’s really been leveraging his slider and changeup effectively. A little bit of an arm angle change has created better movement on his fastball and he’s been able to sustain last season’s Whiff% gains on the pitch. He’s inducing a ton of weak contact with his sweeper and he’s tried to leverage his changeup against righties, of which he’ll face a lot tonight.
Bubic actually held righties to a .228 wOBA last season in 76 plate appearances, posting reverse platoon splits with worse numbers against lefties. My guess is that Steven Kwan and Kyle Manzardo are the only lefties he’ll see tonight.
Bibee is off to a rough start. He threw five shutout innings and only allowed two hits against the Royals in his first outing, as it was more about contact management than anything else. He only has six strikeouts in 43 batters faced, although he is getting a decent amount of Whiffs. He gave up four homers in his start in Anaheim last time out, which was something of a homecoming for the Cal State Fullerton product.
The Guardians have not played clean baseball this season. They are 28th in Defensive Runs Saved, 29th in Outs Above Average, and have committed 11 errors. This offense isn’t good enough to overcome those types of things and especially not in what projects to be a close, low-scoring game.
As such, I’ll take my shot on the Royals at a plus-money price.
Pick: Royals +110
Atlanta Braves at Tampa Bay Rays (-142, 9)
7:05 p.m. ET
The Braves and Rays get together for some interleague action on a night where the ball should be carrying at George Steinbrenner Field. We’ll have a breeze blowing out with the small dimensions and first-pitch temps in the upper 70s. It should provide a helping hand for hitters on both sides and I think we have the right pitching matchup for it as well.
Bryce Elder goes today for the Braves. He allowed three runs on three hits over four innings in his 2025 debut. Two of those hits were homers, as he only struck out three and walked two. Elder had a 6.52 ERA at the MLB level last season over 10 starts and hasn’t shown much of the promise that he had in 2023 when he pitched over 170 innings with an ERA well under 4.00.
As for the Rays, they’ll send out Taj Bradley, who has allowed six runs on seven hits in 11 innings. Bradley tilts towards the fly ball side and has a home run problem. He’s now allowed 47 HR in 253.2 innings at the MLB level. He is a guy that can miss a lot of bats, but also struggles with his command from pitch-to-pitch.
The Braves have had a rough start to the season, but they’ve faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, and Phillies, so they’ve seen some excellent arms. They’re still a top-10 offense by Hard Hit% and a top-five group by Barrel%. So the contact authority is still there. As the schedule steps down in class, I think they’ll be righting the ship pretty quickly.
As far as tonight’s game goes, there is a bet at DraftKings under the 1st X Innings tab that says “Both Teams to Score X+ Runs -1st 5 Innings”. The 2+ number is +130. Given that it’s -145 to play Over 4.5 for the 1st 5, and with the fact that I think both lineups have good matchups with advantageous conditions, I like this alternate bet at plus money available at DraftKings.
Pick: Braves/Rays 2+ Runs 1st 5 Innings (+130)
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (-148, 8.5)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Angels have been one of the biggest surprises of the young season and they’ll attempt to ride that momentum into a weekend set in Houston against the Astros. Jack Kochanowicz gets the call tonight against Ronel Blanco in what is really an interesting pitching matchup.
Kochanowicz has worked 11 innings so far this season with a 3.27 ERA and a 5.88 FIP because he only has eight strikeouts (four in each start) and has allowed three home runs. He’s drawn the White Sox and Guardians, so we’ll see if the step up in class provides any hiccups. Although, the Astros aren’t really hitting at all right now. They’re 29th in wOBA and 28th in HR so far.
The offense also has the sixth-highest K% in baseball and fifth-highest against righties. This is a very righty-heavy lineup and Kochanowicz was more effective in righty/righty matchups in the minors. He’s a big 6-foot-7 right-hander with heavy sink and a slider, but he’s added more of a four-seam look this season and it has really paid off thus far with a 39.1% Whiff%. It is surprising that he doesn’t have better Extension with his 6-foot-7 frame, as he has between a three-quarter and sidearm delivery, so he’s coming more from the outside, which cuts down on how close he is to the plate when he throws.
But, he’s gotten a 35.3% Chase Rate so far in two starts. He didn’t use the fastball as much against the Guardians as he did against the White Sox and I think he uses it more tonight, which should generate more Whiffs. With that in mind, I do like Kochanowicz Over 3.5 Strikeouts at -120.
But, that’s not all. I’m also looking to fade Blanco while we can. All of his pitches have decreased by Stuff+ and he wasn’t great in that department to begin with. He has an 87 Pitching+ mark through two starts so far, a 10-point drop from last season and his Stuff+ is down seven points. Now, he’s only thrown 6.2 innings, so it is an extremely small sample size, but he’s allowed seven runs on eight hits and walked six in those 6.2 innings.
He’s a fly ball guy, which should help an Angels lineup that has found some surprising power production thus far and they’re putting a lot of balls in play. I’ll take the plus-money shot here.
Picks: Angels +124; Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (-218, 7.5)
9:40 p.m. ET
The Rockies began the season on the road against the Rays and Phillies and went 1-5 on that road trip. They came home and went 2-4 on the homestand against the Athletics and Brewers. Now they’re back on the MLB highway taking on the Padres. San Diego manager Bob Melvin said he’s confident that Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth will be back in the lineup after missing Wednesday’s game. They’re already missing Jackson Merrill.
But, I still like this spot for the Padres and also view this as a potential breakout spot for Nick Pivetta. The Coors Field Effect is something that I talked about a lot in my Rockies season preview. It has also been on display a ton over the years, as they’ve been an awful team on the road. Pitches break differently and they have a higher K% and a lower BB% outside of Coors Field. Well, this is their first experience with the CFE this season, as they had Spring Training, started on the road, went home, and are now back on the road.
It is a steep price to lay on San Diego, though, and I don’t really like laying a home Run Line price, particularly with a total of 7.5. Plus, you’re likely to only have the home team bat eight times as a big favorite, so that’s one less opportunity to score.
Instead, I’ll cut down the vig and show my support for Pivetta without laying heavy chalk on his strikeout prop by taking Nick Pivetta “Yes” to Record A Win at +135 offered at DraftKings. He’s typically a pretty efficient guy with his pitches, especially after cutting down his walk rate last season with the Red Sox, so five innings with a lead should be doable.
The Rockies are running out German Marquez, who was terrific in his first start, but then walked six the next time out. The Padres don’t chase a lot and Marquez throws a lot of fastballs. I also really like the Padres bullpen over the Rockies bullpen, so I think SD can not only protect a lead, but possibly also add on.
Pick: Nick Pivetta (SD) To Record A Win (+135)
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