On Wednesday, April 16th, the Sacramento Kings host the Dallas Mavericks in the 9 vs. 10 NBA Play-In Tournament matchup. The winner of this will keep their season alive and fight for the opportunity to face the Oklahoma City Thunder, the top seed in the Western Conference, in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs.
Keep reading for Mavericks vs. Kings odds and predictions, and make sure you come back to VSiN throughout the course of the NBA Playoffs. We’ll have previews of every single series and daily best bets/player props. We’ll also have betting trends and insights from our analytics guru Steve Makinen. Of course, we’ll also be talking about all of this on our live programming too! It’s a great time to be a VSiN subscriber, so make sure you check out our $59 Summer Special. That’ll give you full access to everything we have to offer until August 1st!
How To Watch Mavericks vs. Kings
Where: Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California
When: 10:00 pm ET on Wednesday, April 16th
Channel: ESPN
Mavericks vs. Kings Odds
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Sunday, April 13th at 10:30 pm ET)
Moneyline: Kings -205, Mavericks +170
Spread: Kings -5 (-110), Mavericks +5 (-110)
Total: Over 217 (-110), Under 217 (-110)
Mavericks vs. Kings Prediction
This is a pretty tough game to call when looking at the spread. While I do think the Kings will get the job done at home, it’s hard to ignore the Mavericks’ 6-3 record with Anthony Davis in the lineup. This team isn’t quite as bad as people think. However, since Davis’ return from injury on March 24th, the Mavericks have an Efficiency Differential of -9.0 at Cleaning The Glass. That sample includes three games the All-Star didn’t play, but that’s the best that can be done when sorting to account for his return. And since that date, the Kings have an Efficiency Differential of -1.9. So, while Sacramento definitely hasn’t been great, the team has been a little better than Dallas.
I ultimately just think that Sacramento’s perimeter firepower will be a little hard for Dallas to overcome. DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine are two players that can really get hot, getting you playoff-caliber buckets pretty regularly. Outside of Davis, who on Dallas can be trusted to do that? I also like that some of the Kings role players can shoot the hell out of the 3-ball when playing at home. So, if Domantas Sabonis, LaVine or DeRozan get going, Sacramento will have the kind of shooters required to make it impossible to double.
The Kings also happen to have a defensive weapon in Keon Ellis, capable of either sticking Klay Thompson off the ball or handling whatever point-of-attack assignment Doug Christie needs from him. That complicates things even more for Dallas. If one of the guards does step up and help Davis, will Ellis shut their water off?
However, this is a game in which I’ll be looking to the total, and I think the Over is the right way to play this one. Dunks & Threes’ predictive EPM has an estimated final score of 116-112 in favor of Sacramento, which is good for 228 points. That’s a pretty sizable edge to the Over when looking at the game’s total of 217. The Kings are also 14-8 to the Over with Christie on the sidelines in home games, and that record is also 10-5 when the team is favored at home. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have gone Over in three of their last four games, as well as 14 of their last 18.
I will note that I think Dallas is going to try and slow this game down, hoping it can win with its size, toughness and defense. I just don’t think that’s going to work, as I don’t view the Mavericks as a good enough defensive team to slow down the Kings. For as bad as things have gotten for Sacramento at times, the team is still seventh in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (116.0) and has some of the game’s best shot-makers.
Bet: Over 217 (-110)
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