2024 Mountain West Conference Basketball Tournament
There is no more intriguing conference than the Mountain West.
Bracketologists around the country have long predicted that six teams would emerge from this conference and make it to the NCAA Tournament. Now, a seventh team – UNLV – has emerged playing some incredible basketball, and threatening to steal a bid from perhaps one of six teams expected to make it in.
There are seven teams that could win this conference. The betting market reflects that sentiment, as seven teams have an 11.8% chance or better of winning this tournament.
Conference play was insane in the Mountain West throughout the regular season, and the conference tournament should not disappoint.
How to Watch the Mountain West Conference Tournament
When: March 13-16
Where: Thomas & Mack Center (Las Vegas, Nevada)
Format: Top five seeds get bye to quarterfinals
Watch: MW Network (First Round), CBS Sports Network (Quarterfinals & Semifinals), CBS (Final)
College Basketball Odds | College Basketball Betting Splits | Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines | Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings
Mountain West Conference Tournament Bracket
Mountain West Conference Tournament Seeds, Teams and Odds
1. Utah State Aggies +425
2. Nevada Wolf Pack +500
3. Boise State Broncos +600
4. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels +550
5. San Diego State Aztecs +260
6. New Mexico Lobos +600
7. Colorado State Rams +750
8. Wyoming Cowboys +25000
9. Fresno State Bulldogs +35000
10. San José State Spartans +50000
11. Air Force Falcons +50000
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish)
Favorite To Win Mountain West Conference Tournament
Despite finishing fifth in the regular season standings it is the San Diego State Aztecs which sit on top of the oddsboard to win the Mountain West Tournament. SDSU is the highest ranked team in the league by KenPom and BartTorvik. Given the program’s history – it lost in the national championship game to UConn last season – it isn’t surprising to see this respect. But, the Aztecs hardly enter the conference tournament in peak form.
SDSU dropped the last two games of the regular season both SU and ATS. It is 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS in its last five games. That includes a loss to its first round opponent UNLV, which it fell to on the road last Wednesday.
The Aztecs’ big issue is their offense. SDSU averaged just 108.1 points per 100 possessions in conference play. They were the worst 3-point shooting team in the league (30.4%). The team’s best shooters – Jaedon LeDee and Reese Waters – shot under 37% from beyond the arc. San Diego State also fails to pressure the rim consistently. The team takes just 33.4% of their attempts at the rim and shoots just 62.3% on those shots, according to Hoop-Math.
Make no mistake, the Aztecs are a dominant defensive team. They led the Mountain West in adjusted defensive efficiency (98.1). Opponents turned the ball over on 18.5% of their possessions against them, shot just 48.1% inside the line and 31.6% from deep. That defense is going to give SDSU a chance to win a game against any opponent. But, their struggles on offense make them a vulnerable favorite.
Mountain West Conference Tournament Darkhorse
There is no true darkhorse to win the Mountain West, because six other teams outside of the favorite can win this tournament.
UNLV comes into this tournament – which is played in its home arena – in great form. The Runnin’ Rebels ended the regular season on a 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS run. According to BartTorvik, UNLV has the ninth-best defensive rating in the country over its last 10 games. The Rebels will likely be a popular selection at the window for bettors at a longer shot.
Nevada would seem to be the real darkhorse though. The Wolf Pack started conference play with a 3-4 record. However, they finished 10-1 SU/9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Over their last 10 contests BartTorvik ranks them 16th in the country in its power rating metric.
Players to Watch in Mountain West Conference Tournament
Jaedon LeDee is the first name that comes to mind for this category. LeDee exploded this season for the Aztecs. He started all 30 games he appeared in, and averaged a conference-best 20.5 points and 8.2 rebounds on 55.7% shooting from the floor. LeDee is a big-bodied forward who can drive, shoot and post-up. How he goes, so too does SDSU.
Utah State’s surprising regular season championship was possible due to the play of Great Osobor. A transfer from Montana State that played under Danny Sprinkle, Osobor averaged 17.6 points and 9.0 rebounds on 57.2% shooting.
The Mountain West is also littered with great guard play as well.
Isaiah Stevens is a fifth-year senior for Colorado State who averaged 16.8 points and 7.0 assists per game. Stevens is a deadly, knockdown shooter. He knocked down 45.7% of his 4.2 3-point attempts per game this season.
Nevada’s Jarod Lucas was second in the conference in scoring at 17.8 points per game. Lucas is a high-volume scorer who averaged 12.5 attempts per game, but shot just 42.2% from the floor. He also averages 5.8 3-point attempts per game.
Betting Pick to Win Mountain West Conference Tournament
Nevada offers some betting value at +500 or better. The Wolf Pack have excellent size in the backcourt with Lucas and Kenan Blackshear. Their frontcourt is led by Nick Davidson (6-foot-9) and KJ Hymes (6-foot-10). That size led to a defense that allowed just 105.1 points per 100 possessions, and less than a point per possession in their last 10 contests.
Nevada also has excellent guard play outside of Lucas. Blackshear averaged 15.1 points on 49.4% shooting. He also added 4.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. The Wolf Pack does not take a high volume of 3-point attempts, but they do have knockdown shooters in Lucas and Hunter McIntosh, who comes off the bench.
The downside of this play is the bracket. Nevada is on the same side of the bracket with Colorado State, New Mexico and Boise State. The Wolf Pack will likely have to get through two of those three teams just to make it to the championship game. However, the metrics would tell us this team is playing the best basketball of any Mountain West team in recent form.
Betting Pick: Nevada (+500)
Makinen Power Ratings for Mountain West
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