Italian Open best bets for Friday, May 17th
It feels like tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with the final 1000-level event before the 2024 French Open. Over the next couple of days, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Italy, as the top players in the world compete in Rome. The Internazionali BNL d’Italia is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you tune in for some of the action. Below you’ll find some of my tennis best bets for Friday, May 17th.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 293-314 (+18.46 units)
Alejandro Tabilo vs. Alexander Zverev – Rome
Alejandro Tabilo has put together the run of his career in the Eternal City. Tabilo hasn’t dropped a single set in this tournament, and it’s not like he has played poor competition. In fact, Tabilo has earned wins over Novak Djokovic and Karen Khachanov this week. But it is worth noting that Djokovic has been out of it all year. And it’s not like Tabilo has faced any in-form clay-courters. Well, Alexander Zverev might not be a clay-court specialist, but he’s in form and he absolutely loves this surface, And he happens to be better than Tabilo at pretty much everything. Zverev is a better server and returner than Tabilo, and that’s also true on the dirt. Also, in addition to having one of the best backhands in the world, Zverev is also hitting the hell out of his forehand. With that in mind, I just don’t see anything that Tabilo can do to make Zverev uncomfortable out there. That said, this should be a pretty straightforward match.
Bet: Zverev -1.5 Sets (-120)
Note: As you’ll see below, I’m also playing Zverev moneyline as part of a two-leg parlay. I think Zverev wins this in straight sets, but I don’t want to be dead in the water if he needs a decider to get across the finish line. As Denzel Washington said, “I’m leaving here with something.”
Nicolas Jarry vs. Tommy Paul – Rome
I was on the wrong side of Tommy Paul’s last match and I’m definitely feeling a little bitter about it. Hubert Hurkacz played horribly throughout that quarter-final showdown, but he still earned himself two one-break leads in the final set. His serve just completely abandoned him in the match, which is crazy considering he’s arguably the best server on the planet. Hurkacz also played some sloppy tennis throughout, making it something of an unconvincing win for Paul. However, the opposite is true of Nicolas Jarry’s win over Stefanos Tsitsipas. Jarry was absolutely hammering shots from the forehand side and was able to take down Tsitsipas, who looked pretty decent throughout the match. Now, I think the Chilean has a great shot at advancing to the final.
Paul is one of the better grinders in the sport, but he’s going to need some more power in order to continue winning in these conditions. It’s extremely slow in Rome, so Paul isn’t going to hit many winners. And his serve is going to be rather easy to return. Of course, that was true in the earlier rounds, and Paul did work his way all the way to the semis. But he’s now running into the very best players, so more will be demanded of him. And I’m just not sure he’ll be able to deal with the raw power of Jarry, who happens to move pretty well on clay.
All in all, it’s just hard to ignore that Jarry is 70-46 on clay in his career, and he’s also 16-9 on the surface in the last 52 weeks. Paul is just 20-25 on clay in his career, and he’s 7-5 on the surface in the last 52 weeks. Jarry is just a more accomplished player on clay, and he has a game that should make things tough on Paul.
Bet: Jarry ML (-105 – 2 units)
Added Plays
David Goffin ML (-159 – 1.5 units) vs. Juan Pablo Varillas [Turin Challenger]
PARLAY: Juncheng Shang ML vs. Daniel Evans [Bordeaux Challenger] + Matteo Arnaldi ML vs. Fabio Fognini [Turin Challenger] (+103 – 2 units)
PARLAY: Luciano Darderi ML vs. Marc Andrea Huesler [Turin Challenger] + Alexander Zverev ML vs. Alejandro Tabilo [Rome] (-132 – 1.5 units)
Thursday’s Plays
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
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