On Thursday, June 6th, Coco Gauff faces world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the semifinals of the French Open. Gauff comes into this match after having earned a three-set win over world No. 9 Ons Jabeur, while Swiatek wiped the floor with world No. 6 Marketa Vondrousova in a 6-0, 6-2 beatdown. The stage is now set for a top-five showdown between two players that clashed in the semis in a 1000-level event in Rome just three weeks ago. That match ended in a 6-4, 6-3 win for Swiatek, who then went on to win the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Will things play out the same way in Paris? Keep reading for a look at how this match might go.
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Coco Gauff vs. Iga Swiatek Odds
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of 12:00 pm PST on Wednesday, June 5th)
Moneyline: Swiatek -650, Gauff +475
Spread: Swiatek -5.5 Games (-135), Gauff +5.5 Games (+115)
Total: Over 18.5 (-125), Under 18.5 (+105)
Coco Gauff vs. Iga Swiatek Prediction
I’m not going to be playing anything in this match, as I already have a big play on Swiatek to win the French Open. However, I understand a lot of people will be eager to jump in on this one. And if you’re one of them, I think the only play is laying the games with Swiatek. Honestly, Swiatek is too big of a favorite to even use in moneyline parlays, so you have to be bolder than that if you want to take the three-time French Open champion to win this. But I don’t think it’s crazy to think that she’ll cover a big number against the American. After all, Swiatek is 10-1 against Gauff in her career. And while she didn’t cover against Gauff when the two met in the Rome final, she did beat her rather easily. Swiatek has also covered a 5.5-game spread in wins over Gauff at each of the past two French Opens. The Pole beat her 6-1, 6-3 in 2022 and 6-4, 6-2 in 2023.
It’s just hard to overlook how dominant Swiatek has been in this year’s tournament. Outside of a near-loss against Naomi Osaka in the second round, Swiatek hasn’t dropped a set. She has also served up bagels in three of the last four sets she has played, despite facing good players in both. It almost feels like the match against Osaka served as a huge emotional release for Swiatek, who is now playing looser than we have seen her in months. And when Swiatek is playing care-free tennis, she’s pretty close to unbeatable.
Swiatek is also just a very hard player for Gauff to manage, which is why the American has only beaten her once. Gauff’s sloppy serve and forehand are just a little too exploitable, as Swiatek is a world-class returner and is smart enough to hit topspin-heavy shots to the American’s forehand side. Other players aren’t quite as capable of taking advantage of these Gauff weaknesses, but Swiatek certainly is. Of course, Swiatek’s serve can be a problem for her at times, but it’s not as bad in Paris. Swiatek is smart about going to her slider serve on this surface, and it also just doesn’t matter that much. With opponents not being able to pound her second serve for winners on these slower courts, Swiatek is capable of lengthening rallies and eventually giving herself an edge later in the point.
Swiatek’s ability to win lopsided sets is also huge with a spread like this. Even if Gauff manages to play a very competitive set, or even win a tight one, Swiatek can flip the script and cover with one flawless half hour of tennis. We have seen her do it before. With that in mind, I think Swiatek is worth a look at this number. This is the best player in the world and she’s playing in conditions that bring out the very best in her.
Lean: Swiatek -5.5 Games (-125)
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