NFL Coach of the Year 2024 Odds, History, and Predictions:
There isn’t a direct correlation between Most Improved Team and AP Coach of the Year, but it isn’t a bad place to start. When it comes to handicapping the Coach of the Year market, you’re either looking for a new guy or recent hire that spearheads a huge turnaround or the coach of the team with the best record in the NFL.
Sometimes, you get a true outlier, like what we saw last season with Kevin Stefanski’s second Coach of the Year honor in four years, but the Browns overcame a lot, as five different starting quarterbacks were used and four of them won games. The Browns did improve by four games, going from 7-10 to 11-6, and maybe a four-game improvement is the minimum to shoot for with this handicap.
Many felt like Houston’s DeMeco Ryans should have won and he nearly did. Stefanski and Ryans tied in number of voting points, but the Browns bench boss had one more first-place vote and that was the difference. It is also worth noting that each of the top seven vote-getters made the playoffs and 11 of the 12 that got votes coached playoff teams.
Before we get the best bets from VSiN hosts and contributors for the Coach of the Year market, let’s look at the last 10 winners and the attributes that allowed them to win.
Kevin Stefanski (2023, 2020)
2023: Four-win improvement (7-10 to 11-6); five different starting quarterbacks
2020: First-year head coach (6-10 to 11-5); Browns first playoff appearance since 2002
Brian Daboll (2022)
First-year head coach; from 4-13 (Joe Judge) to 9-7-1; Giants first playoff appearance, first winning record since 2016
Mike Vrabel (2021)
Followed up 11-5 season with a 12-5 record; got zero votes in 2020; second straight division title and third straight playoff appearance
John Harbaugh (2019)
14-2 record, +249 in point differential; four-win improvement over 2018
Matt Nagy (2018)
First-year head coach; from 5-11 to 12-4 (!); Bears first playoff appearance, division title since 2010
Sean McVay (2017)
First-year head coach; from 4-12 to 11-5 (!); Rams first playoff appearance since 2004, first division title since 2003; Jared Goff first year as full-time starter
Jason Garrett (2016)
13-3 record, nine-win improvement over 2015; Dak Prescott rookie year
Ron Rivera (2015)
Eight-win improvement; 15-1 best record in NFL
Bruce Arians (2014)
Second year with Cardinals as first-time head coach at age 60 (won Coach of the Year for Colts in 2012 as interim for Chuck Pagano); navigated Carson Palmer torn ACL
So, we’ve got success, improvement year-over-year, and adversity, which we aren’t really able to handicap before the season as the main ingredients for the Coach of the Year.
Now, let’s turn it over to our VSiN hosts and contributors for their best bets in the Coach of the Year market.
Femi Abebefe:
Kevin O’Connell 25/1
To be completely transparent, I’m looking for all sorts of ways to play on the Minnesota Vikings ahead of the 2024 NFL season. I think public perception and the betting market have gone way too far on downgrading the Vikes after the departure of quarterback Kirk Cousins. I think Minnesota can make the playoffs and, if they do that, head coach Kevin O’Connell will be in the conversation to win Coach of the Year.
When deciding who to bet on in this market, I always look at two things – win total and pedigree of the expected starting quarterback. Let’s start with the win total where the Vikings are around 6.5 or 7 wins, pending your sportsbook of choice. A win total of seven is the sweet spot when it comes to preseason expectations. It signals that there’s a lot of upside to surprise and ultimately impress the voting bloc should the team end up on the right side of variance throughout the season.
History tells us that you want a coach who can go Over their preseason win total by at least two wins to be in the conversation, but probably more to ultimately win. That becomes more difficult for teams that enter the year with high expectations. If the Vikings can win nine or 10 games and make the playoffs, KOC will get a ton of praise from NFL media.
Which leads me to the next criteria – expected starting quarterback. The Vikings will have a quarterback competition this training camp between veteran Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy. Neither QB is anywhere close to established enough to take credit away from O’Connell should the Vikings make the playoffs. Regardless if we think it’s silly or not, something as trivial as “who gets the credit?” can be the deciding factor in who ultimately wins an award. Essentially, you want to avoid coaches who are attached to future Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
Lastly, whomever starts at QB for the Vikings will be in a great setup. O’Connell is one of the better offensive minds in the sport, the team has great skill-position players (highlighted by All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson) and they have a really good offensive line. On the other side of the ball, they’re coordinated by the aggressive Brian Flores and used this offseason to get him some new toys in the front seven in edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel.
The Vikings are being priced like a team in a full rebuild, which is disrespectful to the talent on the roster and the head guy on the sidelines. I’ll back O’Connell at these prices all day long.
Adam Burke:
Nick Sirianni 40/1
It isn’t easy for an established, successful head coach to win Coach of the Year, but I think Sirianni has the right formula to do it. For non-rookie coaches, finishing with the best record is one way to do it and the Eagles absolutely have the potential and upside to do that. Sirianni didn’t get much love for his 14-3 season in 2022 with the Eagles, even though he improved the team by five wins and really should have been talked about in a different way. Maybe he gets a nod from voters this season if he does something similar.
This kind of feels like it could be the 2019 season when John Harbaugh won it with a Ravens team that went 14-2 after finishing 10-6 the year prior. Matt LaFleur’s Packers were excellent and had a seven-win improvement, but he finished third as a rookie head coach. The other first-year head coaches were Kliff Kingsbury (5-10-1), Vic Fangio (7-9), Freddie Kitchens (6-10), Brian Flores (5-11), and Zac Taylor (2-14).
Obviously the hype train is high around Raheem Morris, Jim Harbaugh, and even Mike Macdonald, but those are all priced in. Morris is a reasonable choice at +1300, but we’re also banking on Kirk Cousins off of a torn Achilles. I’d also look to bet on Morris in-season because the Falcons play the Eagles on the road and Chiefs at home within the first three games. You may very well get a better number if they are 1-2 or even 0-3 with the new-look Steelers in Week 1.
Instead, I think Siranni makes some sense at a big price. He’s upgraded both coordinators with Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio to help an Eagles team that started 10-1 last year and finished 11-6. Jalen Hurts seemed hurt most of last season. The NFC East still features two of the league’s lesser teams and the schedule is quite reasonable.
Philly’s toughest early-season games are all at home until they go to Cincinnati in Week 8 and then Dallas in Week 10. Sirianni could also get praise for “figuring it out” after the 1-5 ending and the embarrassing loss to the Bucs in the postseason. I think this is a team with a remarkably high ceiling in 2024 and the betting markets back it up with the Eagles +550 to get the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Ben Wilson:
Mike Macdonald 22/1
It’s comical that the leading candidates for NFL Coach of the Year heading into the season are all in charge of teams with playoff expectations. Of the five coaches who led the preseason odds board, all of them have win totals of at least 8.5 (with heavy Over juice) and only Jim Harbaugh’s LA Chargers are underdogs to make the playoffs (+110). Newsflash: coaches of teams with high expectations do not generally win this award! Unless you are the ’07 Patriots (16-0), ’15 Panthers (15-1), or ’19 Ravens (14-2) and put together an undisputedly elite regular season, it’s hard to make a case for the head coaches of the perceived upper-echelon teams.
While Seattle did go 9-8 in 2023, expectations are low amidst a competitive and improving division, with a win total at 7.5 and odds to make the playoffs at nearly 2/1. Enter new head man Mike Macdonald, who led Baltimore’s top-10 defense each of the past two seasons and brings a breath of fresh air to the Pacific Northwest, where outgoing coach Pete Carroll relied too much on rah-rah energy and too little on attention to detail. A defensive unit that was 31st against the run and 26th against the pass (EPA/Play) while allowing the sixth-most yards/drive in the league stands to take a giant leap with a proven defensive mind in Macdonald at the helm.
Macdonald inherits a quarterback in Geno Smith who has been a top-15 QB (Completion Percentage Over Expectation + EPA/Play) and an offense that’s finished top-10 in YPP each of the last two seasons. It’s not at all unrealistic to believe the Seahawks can take a leap forward in 2024, which would put Macdonald on the short list for COY. At 22/1, it’s a much better value play than any of the other short shots.
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