MLB Betting Splits Systems Update:
The DraftKings betting splits features on VSiN.com continue to grow each and every year in all of the sports we offer them for. Many of our most recognizable personalities also offer insights on this unique feature regularly for our followers. It seems that bettors are enamored with knowing what their cohorts are partaking in. In my experience with studying these splits over the last couple of years, the simple fact is that the majority bettors I’ve analyzed simply do not win. In my continuing series on developing systems that savvy bettors can use to take advantage of these betting splits, I’ve now wrapped up breaking down the 2024 MLB data as we come out of the All-Star break, just in time for games on Friday.
As I have for all of the other sports, I have updated a set of actionable betting systems that VSiN Pro Subscribers can take advantage for the rest of the season. We will be continually tracking these systems and sharing the daily plays in our MLB Analytics Reports as well.
To summarize the first half 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:
- Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
- Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
- Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
- Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
- Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
- Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why the results don’t add up to 1449 games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
Whenever I write about these DraftKings Betting Splits, I like to remind readers why I have adopted the strategy of following this subject matter. It was about two years ago that I set out to study the college football betting splits data provided on VSiN.com by DraftKings. I felt that a book like DraftKings, known for servicing all levels of recreational bettors, and now the #1 book in terms of market share, providing this type of data would offer a ton of great betting opportunity if savvy bettors knew how to interpret the numbers. As it turns out, I was right, but by somewhat different means than I thought I would find.
Why is this Betting Splits information so valuable? Well, most specifically, it lets us see which games are the most publicly supported each day or week. The common belief is that the “betting public” does not win over the long haul, and with the amount of money DK spends on acquiring customers, you have to assume that most of the bettors that play there would be considered “public”. In other words, the collective opinions of this group of recreational bettors are right out on display for all of us to analyze and take advantage of.
Most of the theories I have believed about public bettors for all of the other sports came to fruition with baseball as well, specifically that they love favorites and they love Overs as compared to Unders on totals. In fact, majority handle bettors chose opted for favorites in 77.8% of the games and Overs 70.8% of the games. This is still dramatic, although the numbers have dropped by over 7% in both categories this season as compared to last. I would like to perhaps take some credit for the drop by pointing out that many of the systems you’ll see below go against the grain and side more with underdogs and Unders. I also feel that the improved ROI numbers for bettors this season are a direct reflection of this change in strategy.
One side note on what I just detailed regarding the public’s love for favorites. On games featuring a road team favored so far in 2024, the majority handle has opted to back the road favorite 93.7% of the time!
For those of you who have not read my similar analysis in the past for football and basketball, I tried to analyze the records of the “majority bettors” at DraftKings and the side/total they preferred for games. I also broke it down further, sometimes by percentage of majority, by different line ranges, and by some other variables. There are two fields of analysis for each wagering option that DraftKings shares the data for both sides and totals: 1) handle 2) number of bets. These can produce varied results, but I generally subscribe to the theory that total handle is a little less “public” than total number of bets. The former tends to include more serious bettors, while the latter works in a lot of “weekend warriors.”
In the following betting splits systems I have developed, I will share with you some situational spots in which bettors were far worse or better than the average numbers shown above. These will provide some nice, consistent opportunities to wager on or against throughout the rest of the season, and we will continue to share these opportunities daily in our popular MLB Analytics Reports. If you haven’t been using these for MLB or any of the other sports we offer, I highly recommend adding it to your MLB handicapping arsenal. They are loaded with great handicapping stats, trends, and, of course, the bullpen systems that I have been sharing with readers for the past few years on VSiN.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and a ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2024:
- Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and an ROI of +7.0%.
- Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 have gone just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and an ROI of -12.5%
- Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 have gone just 292-256 (53.3%) for -82.74 units and an ROI of -15.1%
- Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
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The betting splits on VSiN.com are essentially running live and will change in the days and hours before game time. If you adopt any of these strategies this season, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest numbers. In the spirit of continuous improvement, we have redesigned and expanded the VSiN betting splits page, the most popular destination on VSiN.com.
The data, which we get directly from DraftKings Sportsbook, is updated every five minutes. We ping the DK database and see what data has changed and then indicate the change with an arrow next to the percentage.
Also, if you want to see the opening line and the line history, click on the visiting team’s logo. The updates are timestamped. A nice new touch is that – if the game is over – you will get a summary that includes the final score, Total result, season Over/Under record for each team and you can compare the result to what Steve Makinen’s estimated score was.
Unlimited access to betting splits and the MLB Analytics Reports is available to VSiN Pro subscribers.
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