NFL Preseason Betting:
For the last 18 months or so, I have been tracking the results of the betting majorities at DraftKings according to the daily “splits” they provide to VSiN. This has been for virtually all of the sports that VSiN covers.
To put the findings in simple terms, in most cases, majority bettors at DraftKings are not successful. In fact, because of the market that DK serves, I would venture to say their customer base is about as “public” as it comes. Anyone who has been around sports betting circles for the last 25 years or so like I have knows that fading the public consistently might be about the only long-running strategy that will produce consistent profits.
Now sure, these majorities have won in certain circumstances, but overall, I would have to testify that they don’t. With that in mind, I thought I would add another sport to the study group, and that is NFL preseason football, so I took last year’s game results and analyzed them against the splits. To summarize the findings, majority bettors were awful! And as always, I will be using these findings over the next few weeks in our NFL Preseason Analytics Reports to point out spots in which bettors are backing teams, hoping, of course, the struggles continue.
Now, keep in mind that this data sample is much smaller than those I have studied for college and pro football, MLB and basketball. However, it is also much more defined. Take a look at the overall results from the 49 games of the ’23 NFL preseason:
- Majority HANDLE on point spreads: 14-30 ATS (31.8%)
- Majority number of BETS on point spreads: 17-32 ATS (34.7%)
- Majority HANDLE on totals: 19-28 (40.4%)
- Majority number of BETS on totals: 18-29 (38.3%)
As you can see, in all four categories, the majority saw noteworthy losses. Simply fading the majorities would be a worthwhile strategy should it continue. However, as always, I like to dig deeper, so came up with some even more defined angles.
Before revealing the systems, whenever I do these pieces, I like to remind readers as to why this Betting Splits information is so valuable. Specifically, it lets us see which games are the most publicly supported each week. Again, we can all get on board with the concept that the “betting public” does not win over the long haul, and with the amount of money DraftKings spends on acquiring customers, you have to assume that most of the bettors who play there can be considered recreational. Essentially, these bettors’ opinions are on display for all of us to analyze and take advantage of.
With more and more states becoming sports betting regulated each year, this information is more valuable than ever. With the DraftKings data, we know their customer strength is in numbers, and that is exactly what we are looking for with this type of analysis.
The fact that DraftKings shares this data with VSiN, and we break it all down and display it, is a gift for bettors. While no analysis or system of betting is ever perfect, using this information can be a good start or finish to your handicapping.
So here are the DK Betting Splits NFL Preseason Systems and their ’23 performance records that we will be posting and tracking over the next few weeks in the VSiN NFL Preseason Analytics Reports. Use these in conjunction with the other great handicapping trends and systems to make this your best preseason of betting ever.
We’ll start with the first four systems by simply fading all of the majorities as described earlier:
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #1: Looking back at the ’23 NFL preseason, majority HANDLE bettors on sides were just 14-30 ATS (31.8%). Until proven otherwise, any August majority handle in the NFL should be faded.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #2: For the 3+ week ’23 NFL preseason, majority BETS groups on sides were just 17-32 ATS (34.7%). This is another majority group that should be faded until further notice.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #3: Looking back at the ’23 NFL preseason, majority HANDLE bettors on totals were just 19-28 ATS (40.4%). While not as bad as the side percentages, it’s still a continued fade opportunity in ’24.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #4: For the 3+ week ’23 NFL preseason, majority BETS groups on totals were just 18-29 ATS (38.3%). A little less success for majority bets than handle on totals.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the HANDLE backed either team in a ’23 preseason game that saw a line move of three points or more from open to close, that group was just 3-13 ATS (18.8%), a percentage low topped only by #9 below.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority HANDLE backed either team in a ’23 preseason game that had a point spread of three points or higher, that majority group went just 9-21 ATS (30%). This is a slight dropoff from the 31.8% overall win rate in system #1, so it’s worth further consideration.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of NUMBER of BETS backed a ’23 NFL preseason team in a game with a point spread of 2.5 points or lower, that group was just 4-12 ATS (25%). This is almost 10% worse than the overall bets majority win rate. Look to fade the majority number of bettors in expected tight games this month.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #8: When the majority NUMBER of BETS was 60% or greater on any team in the ’23 NFL preseason, that group went 9-21 ATS (30%). These bigger majorities lost more than the overall groups.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #9: In the ’23 NFL preseason, when DraftKings lines moved toward the road teams throughout the week but majority HANDLE bettors stuck with the home teams, that group went just 1-7 ATS (12.5%). This might be the lowest DK splits percentage system I’ve posted for any sport, albeit it’s a very small sample size.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #10: In games between CONFERENCE OPPONENTS, majority HANDLE bettors were just 4-11 ATS (26.7%) when backing one of the teams. Most preseason games are of the non-conference variety, so this is another opportunity to fade majorities at a higher success rate.
Were there any systems in the ’23 NFL preseason in which majorities actually won? Yes! Here are those two spots:
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #11: In the ’23 NFL preseason, when DraftKings totals moved two points or more on any given game from open to close, majority NUMBER of BETS groups were 10-7 (58.9%). This is nowhere near as definitive as the negative systems thus far but still a possible spot in which to back the majority.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #12: In the ’23 NFL preseason, majority HANDLE bettors at DraftKings were 8-6 (57.1%) in CONFERENCE games. Again, not spectacular, but a profitable follow chance.
The post NFL Preseason Betting: Fade DraftKings Majority Bettors appeared first on VSiN.
