The final major of the 2024 tennis season is here, as it’s already time for the US Open. The competition in Flushing Meadows will be fierce, as the top players in the world will be hoping for one last big result at a Grand Slam. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next couple of weeks. That continues with my Day 3 tennis predictions and best bets for Wednesday, August 28th. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate, but don’t stop there. Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets on the VSiN picks page daily, and I’ll also be adding some additional plays there.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 732-725 (+26.20 units)
Peyton Stearns vs. Daria Kasatkina
Stearns won in straight sets when these two met at the French Open, so it’s a little surprising to see her at plus-money odds. After all, Stearns is a better player on hard courts than she is on clay, and she’s going to have the home crowd urging her on. Kasatkina has also been dealing with the service yips recently. She somehow managed to double fault only three times in her win over Jaqueline Cristian last match, but she had at least double-digit double faults in three of her previous four matches. She double faulted eight times in the other.
If Kasatkina can’t avoid giving Stearns free points, she’s going to be in trouble. Kasatkina will have no choice but to overcompensate by taking a little off her first serve, and that would be a massive blow against Stearns. The American is one of the best returners on the WTA Tour.
Stearns is also a fearless player, so she’s not going to be intimidated by Kasatkina’s baseline power. In fact, the American’s forehand can be the biggest weapon on the court if she’s hitting it well.
Overall, it’s just a little surprising to see Stearns as a ‘dog with the way Kasatkina is playing lately. I view the American as the favorite to win this match, which is why I’m going somewhat big on it.
Bet: Stearns ML (+125 – 2 units)
Gael Monfils vs. Casper Ruud
People were very down on Ruud heading into this tournament, and it’s pretty hard to blame them. The Norwegian had to pull out of Montreal with an illness, and he got demolished by Felix Auger Aliassime in Cincinnati. So, it was hard to trust Ruud’s fitness as he arrived in New York, but he looked really good in his opening-round win. Ruud earned a 7-6 (2), 6-2, 6-2 win over Bu Yunchaokete, who has had a lot of success at the Challenger level this season. And overall, the Norwegian was moving well and played with a confidence that we haven’t seen in quite some time.
With Ruud now looking like he’s back in form, it’s hard not to like him to handle his business against Monfils. I know that Monfils can be dangerous when he’s serving well, but Ruud is a three-time Grand Slam runner-up. One of those runs came in this very tournament, and I just think he has the overall game to frustrate Monfils. Ruud is a master when it comes to point construction, and that’s going to be massive here. The Norwegian will utilize his heavy topspin forehand to move Monfils all around the court, and that should tire out the 37-year-old.
Ruud also won the last time these two played one another, earning a 3-6, 7-6 (3), 6-4 win at Indian Wells. Monfils played a flawless opening set in that match, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to replicate that. And Ruud had him figured out in the end, and I think he’ll carry that over into this match.
Bet: Ruud -2.5 Games (-143)
Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Ben Shelton
Shelton beat the brakes off Dominic Thiem in the opening round, rolling to a 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 victory. And overall, his combination of a booming serve, elite court coverage and youthful exuberance makes him dangerous in New York. The crowd in Flushing Meadows absolutely loves Shelton, and the energy brings out the best in him. However, I do think Shelton’s going to have a little trouble with Bautista Agut on Wednesday.
Shelton beat Bautista Agut in straight sets when the two met at the Australian Open, but the American only won by seven total games. And those conditions were a lot faster. Shelton’s serve makes him very difficult to beat in fast conditions. And while the courts in New York aren’t slow, the Spaniard will have a much easier time picking up Shelton’s serve here. Also, Bautista Agut was playing some miserable tennis early in the season. He has been a lot better lately. In fact, since the start of June, Bautista Agut is 9-8 in the 17 matches he has played. And he was extremely competitive in most of the losses.
I know that Bautista Agut’s best tennis is behind him, but he’s still a smart player with a vicious forehand. That should be enough for him to turn in a respectable performance against a highly erratic player.
Bet: Bautista Agut +6.5 Games (-167 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
Tennis Links
US Open Women’s Betting Preview
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
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