Week 6 of the NFL regular season wraps up tonight with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
8:15 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-1, 41) at New York Jets
The Bills (3-2) have dropped two straight games and just fell to the Texans 23-20, failing to cover as 2-point road dogs. Similarly, the Jets (2-3) have also lost two straight and just fell to the Vikings 23-17 in London, failing to cover as 2.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and 78% of spread bets are rushing to the window to lay the points with the Bills. This heavily lopsided support pushed the Bills up from -1.5 to -3 earlier in the week. However, over the past 24-48 hours we’ve seen sharp buyback on the Jets at an inflated price, dropping New York back down from +3 to +1. Essentially, all late movement and liability is coming back toward the Jets and the points.
New York is only receiving 22% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game, offering notable contrarian value. The Jets have value as a divisional dog (216-187 ATS, 54% since 2020), with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Primetime dogs are 126-103 ATS (55%) since 2020. When both teams are coming off a loss and it’s a divisional game, the dog is 67-46 ATS (59%) since 2020. Aaron Rodgers is 28-23 ATS (55%) as a dog in his career. The Jets will also hope for a motivational boost as Jeff Ulbrich will make his head coaching debut in place of the recently fired Robert Saleh. Coaches making their debut after an in-season firing are 9-2 ATS (82%) since 2020. Those looking to back the Jets would be wise to shop for a hook as some shops are flirting with a move to +1.5. This would also open up a Wong Teaser opportunity (+1.5 to +7.5), which passes through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7.
Sharps are also expecting a lower scoring game here, as the total has dipped from 44 to 41. This downward movement is especially notable because the public is hammering the over (72% of bets), yet the line fell. Outdoor divisional unders are 232-189 (55%) since 2021. Primetime unders are 171-116 (60%) since 2019. Weather could also play a role here, as the forecast calls for high 40s with 10-15 MPH winds at MetLife. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 250-189 (57%) since 2016. Adrian Hill, the lead ref, is 58% to the under historically.
Player Prop to Consider
Breece Hall under 58.5 rushing yards (-110): Hall has gone under this number in four of five games this season. He has also gone under this number in 9 of his last 10 home games. Last week he rushes for 23 yards on 9 carries against Minnesota and then only 4 yards on 10 carries in the previous week against Denver. In his last game against Buffalo (late November of 2023) he rushed for 23 yards on 10 carries.
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