The Monday Night Football matchup in Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season features the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Houston Texans at AT&T Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 11 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Texans vs. Cowboys
When: Monday, November 18th at 8:15 pm ET
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Channel: ABC/ESPN/ESPN+
Texans vs. Cowboys Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, November 17th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Texans -310, Cowboys +250
Spread: Texans -7 (-118), Cowboys +7 (-102)
Total: Over 41.5 (-108), Under 41.5 (-112)
Texans vs. Cowboys Analysis
The Cowboys are 3-6 on the year, they’re boring to watch and they’ll be without Dak Prescott for the remainder of the season. However, if you’re tired of watching them, that’s too damn bad (shoutout to the movie Holes). We’ll get a break from Dallas being on national television in Week 12, but the team will be featured in this week’s Monday Night Football game, a Thanksgiving Day meeting with New York and then a Monday Night Football battle with a similarly disappointing Cincinnati squad. It’s not going to be pretty, but hopefully we can find a way to monetize these games.
The DraftKings betting splits show that nearly 80% of bettors are flocking to lay the points with Houston here. Meanwhile, our new Circa betting splits page has nearly 70% of the bets on the Texans, but nearly 90% of the handle is on the Cowboys plus the points.
I know Cooper Rush has played solid football as a spot starter in the past, but he was 13 for 23 with 45 yards in a 34-6 loss to Philadelphia last week. And while I don’t want to overreact to one performance, I can’t get on board with backing him and this offense.
The Texans have had their issues throughout this season, but most of them have been on the offensive side of the ball. Houston is still a top-10 team when it comes to EPA per play allowed (-0.059), and the group has the eighth-best Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.028) in the league. That said, I can’t really picture Rush getting hot here. And if you think the solution is Dallas pounding the rock, I’m not sure that’ll work either. The Texans aren’t a top-10 team in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.110), but they are plenty capable of stopping it — especially when they know it’s coming, and having a Rush-led offense is a rather big tell that it is.
How about the other side of the ball? Can Houston be trusted to score against Dallas? The Texans are just 20th in the league in EPA per play (-0.036) this year, and some of the C.J. Stroud magic from last year has seemingly worn off. But that could be about to change. Houston’s Rush EPA per play (-0.166) has been abysmal this year, but Joe Mixon has still rushed for at least 102 yards in four of the last five games. And he’ll now be going to work against a Dallas defense that is last in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.078). This Cowboys team has been absolutely diced up on the ground, so Mixon really should be able to get it going. Also, Nico Collins is set to return for the Texans in this game, giving Stroud the type of highly-talented wideout that he has been missing in recent weeks.
Houston is also 3-0 both straight-up and against the spread off a home loss under DeMeco Ryans, so he’ll probably light a fire under his team heading into this one. Meanwhile, Dallas is just 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS as a home underdog under Mike McCarthy. The team is also 3-8 SU and 1-10 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages between 60% and 75% under McCarthy. The Cowboys’ sideline leader doesn’t get the best out of his team against good competition, and he also might be losing the locker room. That’s not a great combination.
With all of that in mind, a blowout really wouldn’t surprise me at all. And while I’m also interested in the Under — which is taking less bets but continues to drop — I genuinely do think the Texans offense is going to break out against this Cowboys defense. I can also see a mistake or two from Rush putting the Dallas defense in some bad situations.
Texans vs. Cowboys Player Props
Joe Mixon Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards (-110)
Mixon has had a rush of at least 16 yards in five of the seven games he has played this season. And in most of those games, he went well Over this mark. Mixon has had a rush of at least 21 yards in four games this season, and he has generally looked rather explosive all year — despite the fact that the advanced stats don’t tell a great story about this Houston running game.
I’d be pretty surprised if Mixon can’t rip off another semi-long run this week. The Cowboys have the worst rushing defense in the league, so there should be some holes for him. Dallas has also allowed a run of at least 16 yards to an opposing running back in three of its last four games. And while the most recent game was the one in which it didn’t happen, Jalen Hurts did have a 16-yard run against the Cowboys.
Texans vs. Cowboys Pick
I don’t love laying 7 with a road team, but Dallas has lost its last two home games by a total of 66 points. This Cowboys team is fully capable of getting absolutely romped, and the Texans are a motivated team that is getting a little healthier. That could easily lead to a lopsided affair.
If you’re patient, you could also use Houston in some teasers for Week 12, utilizing this game as a way to get a better price on Miami (vs. New England) or Detroit (at Indianapolis) to win outright. While i do lean towards Houston covering this number, I’m going to personally go the teaser route.
Lean: Texans -7 (-115)
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