The start of the new tennis season is here. The top players in the world are already in Australia, which means we’re gearing up for the 2025 Australian Open. Last year, Aryna Sabalenka won the Australian Open, marking back-to-back titles in Melbourne. The Belarusian has now won the last three hard-court majors, and she’s going to like her chances of making it four in a row. However, Iga Swiatek will surely be eager to win her first major Down Under. She has the game to win another hard-court major, but she needs to find her confidence in quicker conditions again. Also, Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina, two other players with major titles to their names, could be in for big 2025 seasons. And Qinwen Zheng comes into this year looking to win her first major. She won the gold medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics, so she should be able to win a slam soon. With all of that in mind, we’re in for a fun season and an exciting major to open the year. Keep reading for the 2025 Australian Open odds, along with some thoughts and players to watch.
I’ll dig into all of this a little deeper once the draw is out. Also, Gill Alexander will surely be firing away with tennis picks all year, so make sure you watch A Numbers Game and check out the VSiN picks page for his tennis bets.
Australian Open Odds
- Aryna Sabalenka +200
- Iga Swiatek +380
- Coco Gauff +500
- Elena Rybakina +900
- Qinwen Zheng 11-1
- Karolina Muchova 18-1
- Naomi Osaka 20-1
- Jasmine Paolini 22-1
- Jessica Pegula 22-1
- Barbora Krejcikova 25-1
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. Shop around for the best prices!
Australian Open Top Contenders
Aryna Sabalenka: Sabalenka has won the last two Australian Open titles, and she has now won three consecutive hard-court majors. Sabalenka also won titles in Cincinnati and Wuhan last year, simply dominating hard-court season on her way to a 56-14 year. Sabalenka’s power has always been overwhelming for opponents, but she’s getting better and better as a mover. She’s also making fewer mistakes. Her double fault percentage was up at 10.4% in 2022, when the yips really made life difficult on her. She then got that number down to 6.2% in 2023. And it was a career low 4.3% in 2024, and her first serve in percentage (62.8%) was a career high. Sabalenka isn’t going anywhere as a slam contender, and she’s the player to beat on faster surfaces. She might be the player to beat on all surfaces.
Iga Swiatek: Swiatek is still untouchable as the best clay-court player in the world, but the lack of hard-court success is starting to become puzzling. Swiatek has never been to the finals of the Australian Open, and the last time she made the semis was back in 2022. Swiatek also hasn’t been as big of a factor at the US Open as you’d think. And off of hard courts, you can also throw in the fact that she has never been beyond the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Swiatek just struggles in quick conditions, as she can get overwhelmed when being rushed along the baseline. Well, Swiatek made some changes to her team to address that, but how fast will that pay dividends? Swiatek noted at the WTA Finals that she hadn’t really gotten things going yet with new coach Wim Fissette. Has she had enough time to make meaningful changes? I doubt it. She also got hit with a doping suspension late in the season, and it’ll be interesting to see how she processes that mentally. Not everybody is like Jannik Sinner, who simply flushed it from his memory and won multiple massive tournaments in the second half of 2024. Can Swiatek do the same? I need to see it to believe it.
Coco Gauff: I think this is going to be a big year for Gauff. I have never hesitated to fade the American, as her forehand has been a Texas-sized target in the past. That shot was capable of breaking down at any moment, rendering the rest of her remarkable talent meaningless. But Gauff has been making progress when it comes to improving from that wing. She looked great on her way to winning the WTA Finals in November, earning straight-set wins over Swiatek and Sabalenka in the process. And Gauff also came out ripping the forehand at the United Cup. Gauff just needs to find a way to put it together for two full weeks, and she also needs to keep her cool when it comes to the serve. Her double fault percentage was up at 8.9% last year, and she wasn’t making as many first serves as usual. If she can’t figure that out, it’s going to be hard for her to win in very fast conditions. But I personally think she’s going to make a deep run and contend in this tournament. I also think she’s the player that would benefit most from an out-of-form Swiatek at Roland Garros.
Elena Rybakina: I have a play on Rybakina to win the 2025 Australian Open at 10-1 (risking a half-unit), and that number is still out there. I’d suggest jumping on it while you still can, even if it’s just a pizza money play. Rybakina hasn’t added another major to her trophy room, meaning she hasn’t won one since Wimbledon in 2022. But she did reach the Australian Open final in 2023, and it seems like some of the weirdness of the last few years is behind her. Rybakina has missed a lot of time with injuries and illnesses, and it seemed like she was in a toxic coaching relationship. But Rybakina is now working with Goran Ivanisevic, who is one of the best coaches in the sport. He most recently spent time with Novak Djokovic, helping the Serbian improve his serve and win several majors. Perhaps he can teach Rybakina how to do some of the little things that are keeping her from getting back to the winner’s circle. I tend to think he will. And I think we might see it in Melbourne. She’s arguably the best server in the world, so these conditions will make her a tough out.
Australian Open Players To Watch
With Barbora Krejcikova winning Wimbledon last year, we saw that there’s more opportunity on the WTA Tour than the ATP Tour. That said, you can’t rule players out as contenders, even a bit further down the board. As far as this tournament goes, it’s hard to pick out the sleeper-types. However, it’ll be interesting to see how Mirra Andreeva and Linda Noskova perform.
It’s only a matter of time before Andreeva reaches a slam final. She made the semis at Roland Garros last year, and she’s rapidly improving. Andreeva is a lot like Gauff in that she’s an elite mover with a great backhand, but she needs to get sharper as a server and continue to get better from the forehand side. But even with her game where it is now, she’s a very tough player to knock out of a tournament.
Noskova is another young player with a world of potential. The 20-year-old made the quarterfinals in Melbourne last year, and her ability to pound the ball is rewarded in quicker conditions. In terms of raw talent, there aren’t many players that can top her. She just needs to learn how to win big matches. But on the WTA Tour, deep runs can come out of nowhere and stars can be born overnight. Noskova’s time will come.
I’m also going to be looking out for Ons Jabeur and Madison Keys. Jabeur has been an elite talent at the WTA level before, as evidenced by her three runner-up finishes in majors. But injuries have crushed her lately. Let’s see how she looks after a few months off. Also, Keys has the firepower to make deep runs whenever she’s playing at a decent level. She just has to prove that she can stay healthy over the course of an entire season — and really an entire tournament. I thought Keys had a real shot at winning Wimbledon before she got injured against Jasmine Paolini last year.
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