Pegasus Playoff Pick’em Challenge/Gulfstream Picks for January 25 from Dave Tuley:
Longtime readers of my columns know I love contests of all kinds, as I’ve played in every football and horse racing contest since moving to Las Vegas in 1998. I also have interviewed nearly every major football contest winner in the Hilton/LVH/Westgate and Circa contests over the years (plus others at the Stratosphere, Stations, South Point and M Resort) as well as smaller contests and every World Series of Poker Main Event from 1999 until the 2020 pandemic. I’ve always been a proponent of any operator offering a contest as they provide value to my readers and give them a chance to turn a molehill into a mountain—of cash.
So, I was happy to spread the word in December when VSiN hosted an online poker tournament with Poker Now for our customers to try to earn a seat into a ClubWPT Gold $5 million tournament – and this weekend we’re offering the free (yes, FREE!) “Pegasus Playoff Pick’em Challenge” with our partner 1stBet that combines races from Gulfstream’s Pegasus Day card on Saturday and the NFC and AFC Championship Games on Sunday.
Players can enter here (must be 18+ and one entry per person). Everyone starts out a winner, as all entrants will receive a VSIN Super Bowl Betting Guide. There will be $1,000 in prizes, including $600 in 1/ST BET/Xpressbet Wagering Credits for first place, $300 in credits for second and $100 in credits for third.
It’s easy to enter as you just got to the site and scroll down to pick a horse in each of Saturday’s six races at Gulfstream Park from Race 8 (the Grade 2 Fred W. Hooper Stakes) through Race 13 (the featured Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup). You receive three points for each WIN (1st place) horse you pick, two points for each PLACE (2nd place) and one point for SHOW (3rd place). You then pick the Side and Total In the Commanders-Eagles and Bills-Chiefs games and receive five points for each winning selection.
I’m not eligible for prizes, but I’ll give my picks below that you can either use to follow me or fade me where you think your opinion is better than mine. Regular readers know I’m a “dog or pass” football handicapper and I also love to play long shots in horse racing (hopefully, you were with me when I gave out Dornoch in my VSIN column last June in the Belmont when we cashed at 17-1).
Now, this contest doesn’t award more points for high mutuel payoffs as you just have to pick winners regardless of price, so it would behoove you (see what I did there?) to play mostly chalk; however, everyone else will be doing that as well so I’ll also give my price plays for when you want to go for the gusto and separate yourself from the field.
Tuley’s Takes on NFL Games
Let’s start with my football picks as those are pretty straightforward, as I like both underdogs in Sunday’s conference championship games. The contest lines are Eagles -6 and Chiefs -2, so I would take the Commanders +6 and Bills +2 (for more detailed analysis, go to my “Tuley’s Takes” NFL column here.
As for the Over/Unders, the contest lines are set at 47.5 points in each game. I like the Commanders-Eagles game to go Over 47.5 just like it did in their last meeting, which the Commanders won in a 36-33 shootout in Week 16. I lean to the Bills-Chiefs Under 47.5 even though both offenses are capable of a shootout, but the Chiefs have been winning with their defense, and I think this will be lower-scoring than most of their recent meetings (including the Bills’ 30-21 win in Week 11).
Tuley’s Takes on Pegasus Races
Gulfstream Race Race 8/Grade 2 Fred W. Hooper Stakes
Most likely winner: #5 Tumbarumba is the 2-1 morning-line favorite and will probably be the overwhelming top choice in the contest as most players try to break from the gate fast. Speaking of that, I would prefer to take the likely front-runner in this race, #7 Upstanding, who is the third choice at 5-1 and not as likely to be used by as many of our opponents.
Tuley’s price play: With my own cash, I’m looking to bet Win and Place on 20-1 longshot #4 Northern Flame, who is another early speed horse with a much bigger upside payoff-wise (though, again, let me remind you that this contest only awards a flat three points for Win, two points for Place and one point for Show, so you really need to be confident to use long shots – but certainly nothing stopping us from making real money in the pari-mutuel pools!).
Gulfstream Park Race 9/Grade 3 William L. McKnight Stakes
Most likely winner: #11 Bold Act is the 2-1 morning-line favorite and should be able to sit well off the pace and make one big run as we’ve often seen in turf races (and this one is at a mile and a half). If looking to avoid the chalk, #1 Limited Liability should get a ground-saving trip under Hall of Fame jockey Frankie Dettori.
Tuley’s price play: While the first race has just nine betting interests, this race has a full field of 12 plus four also-eligibles and should be much more wide open. So, this is the type of race where it’s a good idea to take a (long) shot. I’ll take a flyer on #2 California Frolic at 20-1, as he should also be able to drop off the pace from an inside post and have plenty left for a late run at a huge price.
Gulfstream Park Race 10/Grade 2 Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Most likely winner: #1 Raqiya is the lukewarm 4-1 morning-line favorite in this full field, but could go gate-to-wire on the rail. #10 Sacred Wish will probably also attract a fair number of entries as the 5-1 second choice.
Tuley’s price play: This is another race where I think we should look outside the overused top contenders. I’m landing on #10 Minoushka, who I believe offers value at 10-1 and could benefit from a speed duel, as several others could challenge Raqiya on the front end and set it up for a closer.
Gulfstream Park Race 11/Grade 2 Inside Information Stakes
Most likely winner: We’re back to a nine-horse field in this non-Pegasus stakes race at seven furlongs, and you probably need to have the winner here since it’s likely that more than usual will be able to pick up points here. So, I think this is the time to take the 2-1 morning-line favorite, #7 Mystic Lake, or 3-1 second choice in #9 Emery, who always seems to fire her best. I’m taking Emery.
Tuley’s price play: I’m always looking for a cash play at a price, so put me down for #4 Haulin Ice at 15-1 as she obviously likes this track with a win and place in two tries, including a nine-length romp in a minor stakes back in July. A repeat of that effort gives her a shot as a horse for the course.
Gulfstream Park Race 12/Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf
Most likely winner: #7 Nations Pride is the 2-1 morning-line favorite and a major threat from off the pace in this turf race at a mile and an eighth. #5 Integration at 3-1, #6 Major Dude at 6-1 and #3 Mi Hermano Ramon at 8-1 are also dangerous contenders.
Tuley’s price play: This is another full field (with two also-eligibles) where we might have to take a shot to separate from others who have the short-priced winners that we do. I’m landing on closer #11 Grand Sonata to be coming from the clouds like the top contenders listed above, but at a very live 20-1. Also, don’t sleep on the AE list if #14 Paros draws in at 30-1 (remember when #21 Rich Strike drew into the 2022 Kentucky Derby and won at 80-1).
Gulfstream Park Race 13/Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup
Most likely winner: Being the featured race, the vast majority of entrants will on the top contenders: #11 Locked, the 5-2 morning-line favorite; #4 White Abarrio at 3-1; and #2 Saudi Crown. To avoid being on the same horse as so many others, I’m taking #9 Mystik Dan, the Kentucky Derby winner, at 8-1. He hasn’t won since Derby Day, but should be able to stalk the pace like that race and he’s certainly capable of that one big run to the wire.
Tuley’s price play: I wouldn’t advise using this in the contest (unless you think you might need to make up a lot of ground in the standings before the football picks), but my price play for actual cash will probably be #12 Power Squeeze, a 4-year-old filly taking on the boys, at 30-1. She lost by a neck in her last race at Gulfstream on Dec. 26, so I’m sure the vast majority of bettors won’t be back her, but she won her two prior races over the track and should be able to sit well off the pace and hopefully be closing along with Mystik Dan.
Enter the Pegasus Playoff Pick’em Challenge here.
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